Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns prediction: Phoenix opens at home without its bigs against no-rest Warriors

A home opener without centers

Phoenix should be thrilled to be home. Its season began with an 83-124 beating in Portland, and now the Suns host the rival that last season's April play-in sent home. The problem is who is left to protect the paint.

Coach Jordan Ott said Oso Ighodaro will miss the game with an oblique strain, and the official report lists him as doubtful. Mark Williams is out after left shoulder surgery. That pushes rookie Khaman Maluach and two-way big Duop Reath into bigger roles than anyone planned.

That is a real opening for Golden State. The Warriors have grabbed 34.7% of their own misses, 5th in the league, while Phoenix has corralled 61.9% of opponents' misses, 29th. Golden State has no size advantage to lean on either: Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness, and Charles Bassey was listed as day-to-day with a knee issue on Saturday. Expect a scramble on the glass at both ends.

Golden State's legs and lineup

The Warriors arrive 0-2 and on zero rest. Friday night they let a 12-point lead slip away against Memphis and lost 111-108 at home when Cameron Boozer hit a go-ahead jumper with 20 seconds left.

The availability picture is murky. Stephen Curry has been listed as a game-time decision with a right ankle issue, and the Warriors haven't said whether he plays. Brandin Podziemski's status is unsettled after a back issue appeared on the injury table, even though he played Friday. Jimmy Butler III and Moses Moody remain out with long-term knee injuries.

One bright spot: rookie Yaxel Lendeborg, the Summer League MVP, posted 18 points and 13 rebounds in his home debut Friday. Energy from a rookie matters more than usual on the second night of a back-to-back.

Steals against a stalled offense

Golden State's defense has been poor overall, allowing an opponent effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 59.3%, 29th in the league. But it has been the best in the NBA at taking the ball away, with a steal rate of 13.3%, 1st of 30.

Phoenix's offense has nothing yet to build on. It scored 83 points per 100 possessions in Portland and made 19.4% of its threes, last in the league. The talent suggests that won't last. Collin Gillespie shot 40.1% from three for Phoenix last season, and newcomer Luke Kennard hit 47.8% for Atlanta. Kennard is questionable with a left knee strain but practiced Friday and is trending the right way.

Devin Booker averaged 26.1 points last season. If he can protect the ball against Golden State's hands, the Suns' half-court offense should look nothing like it did Wednesday.

What the market sees

Phoenix is a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 219, and neither number has moved since our feed first saw the game. That is a lot of faith in a team that lost by 41 as a 3.5-point underdog, and it says the market is pricing in Golden State's back-to-back and injuries more than either team's opening week.

The totals trend is uniform: all three games these teams have played went under, and both are winless against the spread. History offers little to separate them. Golden State won three of four regular-season meetings last season, and the one loss, 99-98 in Phoenix in December, showed how tight this matchup can get.