Washington Wizards vs Chicago Bulls prediction: Wizards' foul-drawing bigs test Chicago's whistle problem in the Bulls' home opener

A parade to the line

The United Center was supposed to host a rookie duel Saturday night: No. 1 pick AJ Dybantsa against No. 4 pick Caleb Wilson in the Bulls' home opener. That will probably have to wait. Dybantsa is listed out on Saturday's league injury report with a left ankle sprain, which would keep him from his NBA debut again. What's left is two rebuilt teams on the second night of a back-to-back, and two offenses that have leaned on the free-throw line.

Washington's free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) is 46.1%, first in the league. Chicago sits second. The difference shows up on defense. The Wizards have kept opponents off the line, ranking 4th in opponent free throw rate, while the Bulls allow a rate of 37.9%, 27th of 30.

That is a big change for Washington, which ranked 26th in free throw rate last season. The obvious reason is size. Davis and Ayton now work inside, and a Bulls frontcourt without its new starting center looks like an inviting target.

Giveaways and second chances

Neither team has taken care of the ball. Chicago gave it away 27 times in a 135-92 opening loss at Toronto, and Wilson had nine of those. The Bulls' turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) of 18.3% ranks 23rd. Washington wasn't much cleaner Friday, committing 23 turnovers in a 112-102 home loss to the same Raptors.

Chicago gets some of those possessions back on the glass. The Bulls rebound 33.3% of their misses, 6th in the league, and they have done it without Claxton. Washington has struggled to finish defensive possessions, ranking 25th in defensive rebound rate. Chicago misses a lot of shots, so those extra chances matter.

Big men and new faces

Davis averaged 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds for Dallas last season. Ayton shot 67.1% from the field for the Lakers. Washington has also paired Davis with Trae Young, and with Dybantsa out, Bilal Coulibaly and Khris Middleton have taken on bigger roles. Tristan Vukcevic (hip) and Jamir Watkins (ACL) remain out, and Felix Okpara was questionable with an illness as of Oct. 22.

Chicago's roster turned over more. The Bulls return 57.2% of last season's minutes, against 73.6% for Washington, so last season's team numbers say little about this group. Norman Powell, who averaged 21.7 points for Miami last season, is the scoring addition. Claxton (hamstring) is out until at least a re-evaluation targeted for early November. Josh Giddey has been linked to a wrist issue after playing 24 minutes in the opener, and his status for tonight hasn't been confirmed. Noa Essengue (head) is probable. The Bulls haven't confirmed whether Jordan Hawkins, who stayed home from the opener with an illness, is available.

Pace, bricks and a moving line

Chicago plays at the league's fastest pace, 112.1 possessions per game. Washington is no slouch at 8th. That helps explain a total of 244.0, which has held steady since the market first posted it.

The Bulls' shooting is the counterweight. They take plenty of threes but have made just 19.8%, 29th in the league, after two games, a number that should rise but hasn't yet. Their bounce-back win came Friday, 132-125 at Milwaukee as a 1.5-point underdog, with Wilson scoring 21.

The spread has flipped. Chicago went from a 1.5-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite, at -125 on the moneyline. The Bulls won all three meetings last season, including a 121-120 escape in Chicago.