New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets prediction: Jokic's short-handed Nuggets need their offense back against weary Pelicans

Denver's offense has to reappear

The Nuggets ran the league's most efficient offense last season at 119.6 points per 100 possessions. Their first night of this season produced 84 points at Oklahoma City. That works out to an efficiency of 87.6, which ranks 29th of 30. Ball security was the bigger problem: Denver turned it over 22.9 times per 100 possessions.

This is also a reworked roster. Only 61.1% of last season's minutes return, and Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson and Bruce Brown are gone. DeMar DeRozan, signed this offseason, now comes off the bench as the sixth man.

The injury list makes the rebuild harder. Cameron Johnson sprained his right ankle in the second quarter of the opener and is out, as is Spencer Jones with a hamstring issue. Julian Strawther (left knee) won't be re-evaluated until late November. Alpha Diallo is questionable with a sprained right wrist and could start if he plays. Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic are not on the injury report.

New Orleans on the second night

The Pelicans are 0-2 under Mosley, the former Orlando coach, and both losses stung. They led Indiana 66-56 at halftime of the opener and lost 123-120. Friday at Utah they let a five-point fourth-quarter lead slip away in a 120-119 loss, and Mosley drew a technical for protesting a no-call.

Now they play the back end of a back-to-back against a Denver team that has rested since Thursday. They may do it without Yves Missi, who left the Utah game in the second quarter with a left knee injury. He is day-to-day and was due for a re-evaluation Saturday, with no result announced. If he sits, Derik Queen is the likely starter, with Karlo Matkovic in line for more bench minutes. Mosley has started Dejounte Murray and Jeremiah Fears together in the backcourt, moving Herb Jones to the bench.

The Pelicans' path runs inside

New Orleans takes threes less often than any team: 31.8% of its shots, 30th in the league. It scores in the paint instead, at 56.0 points per game (5th). It also lives at the line. Its free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) of 36.4% ranks 4th, and it has made 89.1% of those, best in the league.

Zion Williamson is the engine of that plan, and Trey Murphy III supplies the scoring punch. Murphy averaged 26 against Denver last season.

Denver's lone game suggests it can choke that off. The Thunder got to the line at a rate of just 14.7%, the lowest any defense has allowed, though one game is a small sample.

Second chances for Denver

The Nuggets' cleanest edge is on the offensive glass. They grabbed 38.8% of their own misses in the opener, 1st in the league, which kept a cold shooting night from becoming a rout. New Orleans has been solid on its defensive boards, ranking 10th, but tonight it is on a back-to-back and may be without Missi.

What the number says

Denver is favored by 11.5, and the total sits at 238. The Pelicans' defense has kept their games high: both went over closing totals of 238.5. Denver's opener stayed under.

History leans one way. Denver swept three meetings last season, including a 122-88 rout at Ball Arena, and has won four straight against New Orleans at home. Denver's offense will have to look more like last season's than last Thursday's to clear a number this big.