Brooklyn Nets vs Cleveland Cavaliers prediction: Cavaliers bring a 29-point collapse home to face retooled Nets

The lead that got away

Cleveland's season started with a warning. The Cavaliers led Philadelphia by 29 in the first half Thursday and went into the break up 69-45, then lost 106-114 as 2.5-point underdogs. Now they open Rocket Arena against a Brooklyn team that also started 0-1, and the question is less about talent than about sustaining it for 48 minutes.

The first-half version of Cleveland was frightening: the Cavs played at the league's 2nd-fastest pace and scored 23 fast-break points, 5th in the league. Brooklyn managed just 48 first-half points in its own opener, 28th of 30. The half-court version is the worry. Cleveland made only 24.1% of its threes (28th) and assisted on 46.2% of its made baskets, dead last. That is a team still sorting out who has the ball.

Harden and Mitchell share the wheel

The Cavaliers rebuilt their backcourt over the summer. Darius Garland left for the Clippers, and James Harden arrived after averaging 23.6 points and 8.0 assists for the Clippers last season. Donovan Mitchell, who put up 27.9 points a night for Cleveland last season, now shares creation duties with him. Kenny Atkinson flipped his guard-big pairings in preseason, pairing Mitchell with Jarrett Allen and Harden with Evan Mobley.

Allen carries a subplot. Brooklyn drafted him in 2017 and sent him to Cleveland in the 2021 Harden trade. He was questionable for the opener with right patellar tendinopathy but played, and he is off the latest injury lists. Peyton Watson, who shot 41.1% from three for Denver last season, is expected to start on the wing. Khalifa Diop's knee status is unsettled: two outlets list him out, one as day-to-day.

Brooklyn's new frontcourt math

The Nets went 20-62 last season and kept only 65.4% of that roster's minutes, so last season's numbers say little about this group. Michael Porter Jr. is the anchor after averaging 24.2 points for Brooklyn last season. Julius Randle joins him after scoring 21.1 a night for Minnesota. Nic Claxton, last season's starting center, is now in Chicago.

That absence shows up on the glass. Brooklyn rebounded just 64.3% of opponents' misses in its opener, 28th in the league, and Cleveland piled up 60 paint points in Philadelphia, 3rd in the league. The Nets will also be without rookie Tyler Bilodeau (shoulder), who was ruled out Friday. No. 6 pick Mikel Brown Jr. was on a minutes restriction for the opener after a left ankle injury, and no newer update on that limit has surfaced.

A turnover duel

Neither side has protected the ball. Brooklyn coughed it up on 21.2% of its possessions (turnover rate, per 100 possessions), 28th of 30, while Cleveland's 18.8% ranked 25th. The difference is on the other end: the Nets forced turnovers at a 20.2% clip, 4th in the league. If Brooklyn's guards can turn Cleveland's still-forming half-court sets into live-ball chances, the Nets have a path to keeping this inside the number. If the Cavs clean it up, their transition game punishes every Brooklyn giveaway.

What the market sees

Cleveland is a 12-point favorite with a 231 total, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game Saturday morning. The moneyline sits at -550 for the Cavs. History leans their way: Cleveland swept all three meetings last season, including a 112-84 rout at home in February. Still, double-digit chalk is a lot to ask of a team that went 27-37 against the spread last season and just lost a 24-point halftime lead.

The total is worth a look too. Both openers went under, Cleveland's against a 237.5 close and Brooklyn's against 220.5.