Milwaukee Bucks vs Philadelphia 76ers prediction: Embiid and the Sixers aim at Milwaukee's wide-open paint

Nothing stops anyone inside

Milwaukee spent the summer turning Giannis Antetokounmpo into Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kel'el Ware. Two games in, the cost shows up at the rim. Now the Bucks play their second game in two nights, in Philadelphia, against a 2-0 team the market makes a 12.5-point favorite.

The Bucks allow 66.0 points in the paint per game, 30th of 30. Opponents are making 65.8% of their twos, also last in the league. Shot-blocking hasn't filled the gap: Milwaukee's block rate ranks 25th, even with Myles Turner, who averaged 1.6 blocks last season.

Philadelphia scores 52.0 paint points per game, 10th, and Joel Embiid had 24 points in Thursday's comeback over Cleveland. The Sixers also run, with 24.0 fast-break points per game (4th), and they protect the ball, with a turnover rate (giveaways per 100 possessions) that ranks 5th.

Slow starts, strong finishes

The Sixers' early identity is defense first and offense later. They allow 94.2 points per 100 possessions, 3rd in the league, but score just 100.6, 22nd. Their 3-point shooting sits at 26.5%, 24th.

That shows up in first halves. Philadelphia averages 49.5 first-half points, 25th, and trailed Cleveland by 29 before winning 114-106. Milwaukee has gone the other way: it led at the break in both games, including 62-61 against Chicago on Friday, then lost both. On tired legs, a second-half fade is the Bucks' recurring problem.

The Bucks' best hope is the arc

Milwaukee shoots threes on 47.5% of its field goal attempts, 3rd most in the league, and hits 39.1% of them. AJ Green made 41.9% from deep last season, and Herro scored 24 in the opener after averaging 20.5 points for Miami last season.

Philadelphia doesn't give up many looks from deep. Opponents take threes on 34.3% of their shots against the Sixers, among the lowest rates in the league (27th). If Philadelphia keeps Milwaukee off the line and in contested twos, the Bucks' one real strength gets squeezed.

Who suits up for Philadelphia

The Sixers' injury report looks cleaner than their actual availability. LeBron James is questionable with a back issue, and Philadelphia hosts Detroit on Sunday. If James sits, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is the likeliest starter. Embiid isn't on the injury report, but he has said he'll sit one game this weekend; the team hasn't said which one. Dean Wade (left ankle) is questionable after going through shootaround Thursday.

Dominick Barlow (back) was set to miss at least two weeks as of Oct. 19, Tacko Fall (quad) is out, and Ariel Hukporti is done for the season with a torn Achilles. Adem Bona's status with a foot issue is unconfirmed.

Milwaukee listed no injuries. Its issue is fatigue and fit: a first-year coach in Taylor Jenkins and a 132-125 home loss to Chicago less than 24 hours earlier, with the Bucks scoring 125.

What the number says

The spread opened in our feed at Philadelphia -12.5 with a total of 234, and neither has moved across 11 books. The Sixers are 2-0 against the spread with two unders. The Bucks are 0-2 against the spread, and both of their games went over.

History leans one way too. Philadelphia beat Milwaukee four times in four tries last season, including 126-106 in April. That was a different Bucks roster, and that is exactly the point: the parts that remain haven't shown they can defend.