San Antonio Spurs vs Dallas Mavericks prediction: Winless Spurs lay 12.5 in Dallas as Flagg's shoulder looms

A big price on an 0-2 team

San Antonio has not won a game yet, and the market does not care. The Spurs are 12.5-point favorites on the road for Dallas' home opener, a number that trusts last season's 62-20 team over what has shown up in two losses. That trust has a basis: San Antonio returns 93.9% of last season's minutes, and that group finished 2nd of 30 in net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed).

The early version looks nothing like it. The Spurs rank 20th in net efficiency through two games, mostly because the shots are not falling: they are hitting 29.7% from three and rank 24th in effective field goal percentage, which weights threes at 1.5 times a two. One loss was a 12-point defeat to Oklahoma City, and the other was Friday's 114-110 defeat to Houston in Austin, when Amen Thompson blocked Wembanyama's tying layup with under a second left. Two games is a tiny sample, and a shooting slump from a roster this familiar tends to correct.

History leans one way too. San Antonio swept all four meetings last season, opening with a 125-92 win in this building, and this is the third straight season the Spurs have been Dallas' home-opening opponent.

Dallas is running short

The Mavericks' injury list is the reason the spread is this wide. Flagg left Friday's win at Indiana with left shoulder soreness after a Flagrant 1 foul from Aaron Nesmith and did not return. The league report lists him out, while other Saturday reports called him a game-time decision, and coach Dusty May said only that he would be evaluated in the coming days. Treat his status as unsettled until tip. Flagg averaged 21.0 points last season, and Naji Marshall is the likely replacement in the starting lineup.

Lively (foot) and Caleb Martin (thumb) are listed out, and Tarik Biberovic (heel) has been listed out as well. Santi Aldama and Jett Howard are day-to-day after missing Friday, with conflicting reports and no Saturday update. Irving is back after 19 months away from a torn knee ligament, but he played under a minutes restriction Friday and still scored 24.

Dallas also returns just 56.1% of last season's minutes under a first-year coach, so last season's 26-56 team is a weak guide to this one.

Where Dallas can score

The Mavericks have been efficient when they get shots up. They rank 5th in effective field goal percentage and 3rd in two-point percentage at 62.5%. That runs into the Spurs' strength: opponents are hitting 48.7% on twos against San Antonio, 6th-best in the league, with Wembanyama patrolling the rim.

The opening is outside. Opponents have made 42.9% of their threes against the Spurs, 29th of 30, even though San Antonio allows few attempts. Max Christie shot 40.4% from three last season and is the Dallas shooter most likely to test that number.

Turnovers feed the Spurs' break

Dallas gives the ball away too often, with a turnover rate of 17.5 per 100 possessions that ranks 21st. San Antonio has not forced many turnovers, but it punishes the ones it gets: the Spurs rank 2nd in fast-break points at 24.5 per game. A Mavericks team leaning on Irving's limited minutes and a patched-together rotation is exactly the kind that coughs up live-ball turnovers on the second night of a back-to-back.

The glass is less of a battle. Dallas ranks 26th in defensive rebounding, but San Antonio has been 28th on the offensive boards, so second chances may not decide much.

Total, tempo and tired legs

Both teams played Friday night, so neither has a rest edge. The total sits at 231, unmoved since our feed first recorded it. San Antonio has gone under in both games this season and went under in 39 of 66 games with a line last season. Dallas has swung wildly in first halves, trailing 70-38 at Houston and then leading 77-43 at Indiana.

• Flagg's status at tip, the biggest swing factor for the spread.
• Whether the Spurs' three-point shooting starts to recover.
• Irving's minutes and Dallas' turnover count in the first half.