Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland prediction: Uroš Medić's one-round power tests Kevin Holland's long, unorthodox range
Medić has ended four straight fights in the first round, and Holland has three rounds and an 81-inch reach to make him wait.
| Uros Medic | -161 (59.2% implied) |
|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | +135.5 (40.8% implied) |
- Medić hunts an early knockout behind the southpaw left; Holland tries to drag him long and late, where Medić has never won in the UFC.
- Watch the first scramble: Holland has six UFC submission wins, and both of Medić's submission losses came against the grappling he rarely sees.
- Medić is -153 and Holland +128 (58% to 42%), barely moved from -155 and +132; Medić's 3.8-minute average fight time frames the price.
A shared opponent tells the story
Daniel Rodriguez is the cleanest measuring stick on this card. Kevin Holland spent 15 minutes with him in July 2025 and lost all three cards 28-29. Uroš Medić needed 30 seconds in August, dropping and finishing him with punches at distance in Belgrade.
That is the fight in miniature. Medić is 8-3 in the UFC with all eight wins by knockout and none on the scorecards. His four-fight streak has been four first-round stoppages, and he averages 3.8 minutes per fight. He lands 5.31 significant strikes a minute at 58% accuracy, and the knockdowns come in bunches: 3.2 per 15 minutes. Now ranked #12 at welterweight, he put it plainly this week: "I know that this is my time now."
Holland's length is the counter
Holland brings an 81-inch reach against Medić's 71, and he fights from the outside: three quarters of his landed strikes come at distance, with 27% aimed at the legs. Medić sees the problem. "He's a very lanky and a very unorthodox fighter," he said, calling Holland a seasoned veteran.
The catch is that range has not kept Holland clean. He stops only 50% of opponents' strikes, and the Rodriguez fight was a firefight, with Holland landing 82 and absorbing 77. Against a southpaw who punishes the first opening, that kind of trade is the fastest way to lose. Holland's UFC record of 16-12 (1 NC) includes seven decision losses but only two by knockout, so if he survives the early storm, the fight moves toward his pace. His UFC bouts average 10.6 minutes.
The door on the ground
Medić's three UFC losses are the other half of his profile: one knockout and two submissions, to Jalin Turner and Myktybek Orolbai. He averages 0.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and stops 56% of takedown attempts, a defense that has rarely been tested because his fights end so quickly.
Holland is a real threat there. Six of his UFC wins came by submission, including an anaconda choke of Vicente Luque in 2025, and he averages 0.63 submission attempts per 15 minutes. He has said he is not interested in ground-heavy fights, but a clinch, a stumble or a level change after a hard exchange could open the choke he has found before.
Layoff and the market
Holland has been out 217 days since his unanimous decision over Randy Brown in April, and he withdrew from a July booking against Jacobe Smith with an injury. Medić returns on 105 days' rest. Weigh-in results have not been published.
Books have Medić at -153 and Holland at +128, a 58% to 42% split once the margin is removed. The first price our feed recorded was -155 and +132, a small drift toward Holland that barely changes the picture.
Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland line movement and odds
| Book | Medic ML | Holland ML | Medic spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +122 | -156 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +125 | -155 | — | — |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | — | — |
Where the money is on Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland
On the Kalshi moneyline: Uros Medic: 50% of bets, 60% of the money; Kevin Holland: 50% of bets, 40% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Uros Medic (4 wallets, $2,007) vs Kevin Holland (3 wallets, $2,286). Largest: GamblingOdyssey $2,100 on Kevin Holland, Homely-Gosling $1,097 on Uros Medic, Authentic-Puma $510 on Uros Medic.
Uroš Medić vs Kevin Holland: tale of the tape
| Uroš Medić | Kevin Holland | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 14-3-0 | 29-15-0 |
| UFC record | 8-3 | 16-12 (1 NC) |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 58-39 (59.8%) | 187-95-2 (66.3%) |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 3" |
| Reach | 71" | 81" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.31 | 4.18 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.53 | 3.30 |
| Striking accuracy | 58% | 50% |
| Striking defense | 56% | 50% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.36 | 0.83 |
| Takedown defense | 56% | 58% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.63 |
The fighters
- Uroš Medić (Uroš Medić): All eight of his UFC wins have come by knockout, and he averages 3.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes.
- Kevin Holland (Kevin Holland): His 81-inch reach and six UFC submission wins give him two ways to drag the fight away from Medić's early power.
Numbers that matter
| Medić average fight time | 3.8 | Medić's UFC fights average under four minutes, and he has never won one on the scorecards. |
|---|---|---|
| Holland reach | 81 | Holland's reach in inches, against Medić's 71, is his main tool for keeping the left hand away. |
| Holland striking defense | 50% | Holland lets half of opponents' strikes land, a risky number against a fighter who finishes in the first round. |
| Medić takedown defense | 56% | Medić has lost twice by submission in the UFC, and Holland owns six submission wins. |
| Medić moneyline | -153 | Medić is a modest favorite, close to the -155 our feed first recorded. |
Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland: quick answers
Who is favored in Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
Uros Medic is the favorite at -161; Kevin Holland is +135.5.
When is Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
Welterweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Uros Medic: 50% of bets, 60% of the money; Kevin Holland: 50% of bets, 40% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Uros Medic vs Kevin Holland?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Uros Medic (4 wallets, $2,007) vs Kevin Holland (3 wallets, $2,286). Largest: GamblingOdyssey $2,100 on Kevin Holland, Homely-Gosling $1,097 on Uros Medic, Authentic-Puma $510 on Uros Medic. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.