Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit prediction: Josh Hokit brings the Jon Jones blueprint to Ciryl Gane's title
An unbeaten former Division I wrestler gets his first five-round fight against a champion whose one real weakness has always been the mat.
| Ciryl Gane | -186.5 (62.9% implied) |
|---|---|
| Josh Hokit | +160 (37.1% implied) |
- Gane wants range and precision for 25 minutes; Hokit needs to drag him into the clinch and onto the canvas before his own defense leaks.
- Watch Hokit's first serious takedown attempt: Gane stops only 47% of them, and Hokit lands 50% of his.
- Gane has drifted from -265 to -207.5 as money came in on Hokit; Hokit's 6.12 strikes absorbed per minute explains why Gane stays favored.
The takedown question
Ciryl Gane enters Madison Square Garden as undisputed heavyweight champion, promoted after Tom Aspinall relinquished the belt because of his eye injury. Saturday is his first defense, and the challenger has made no secret of where he plans to take it.
Josh Hokit, a Division I All-American wrestler before he ever fought, says his coaches already know how to beat Gane, and he points to Jon Jones as the template. Jones finished Gane with a guillotine at 2:04 of the first round in 2023, the only submission loss of the Frenchman's career. Gane's UFC numbers back up the worry: he stops just 47% of takedown attempts. Hokit lands 50% of his and controls opponents for 28% of his fight time.
The caveat is that Hokit has rarely needed to wrestle. Against Curtis Blaydes he tried a single takedown and won a striking decision instead. Against Derrick Lewis he did get his takedowns, which answered one question. Whether he can get them against a 6-foot-4 champion who moves well is the fight.
Precision against pressure
Gane is a distance fighter. He lands 5.4 significant strikes a minute and makes opponents miss 61% of the time, and almost all of his output comes at range. When Alex Pereira tried to trade with him in June, Gane landed 54 significant strikes, took 12 and finished him in the second round to win the interim belt.
Hokit fights at a different speed. He lands 10.28 significant strikes a minute, with nearly all of them aimed at the head, but he also absorbs 6.12 per minute, built on just 30.1 UFC minutes. Most of that damage came in one fight: Blaydes hit him with 174 significant strikes over three rounds. A volume brawl against Blaydes is survivable. Against a champion with an 81-inch reach facing Hokit's 73.5, walking forward through jabs and kicks is how reckless pressure gets punished.
Twenty-five minutes is new ground
Hokit is 10-0 as a pro and 4-0 in the UFC, and he has mostly fought short nights: his UFC bouts average 7.5 minutes, and his longest went three rounds. Gane averages 13.0 minutes and has heard the fifth-round horn against Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Francis Ngannou.
Hokit's camp sees it the other way. "The advantage that Josh has over Ciryl is definitely the conditioning factor behind it," said his coach Mike Winkeljohn, who expects Hokit to work into range and find a finish. Hokit is 28; Gane is 35. If the challenger's wrestling hasn't broken through by the championship rounds, though, the miles favor the man who has been there.
There is also the noise. Hokit has spent months needling opponents and questioned Aspinall's eye injury. Gane has said he won't let the antics fool him. Johnny Walker has volunteered as a backup, but the UFC has not confirmed anyone on standby, and neither fighter has been reported hurt.
The market is moving
Gane is the favorite at a median -207.5, with Hokit at +167.5, which works out to 64.4% for the champion once the books' margin is removed. That is a shorter price than the -265 our feed first recorded, when Hokit sat at +210, and the money has come in on the challenger.
The movement reflects the clearest path for Hokit: takedowns against a 47% defender. The price that still favors Gane reflects the other side of the ledger, a challenger who gets hit often, has never seen a fourth round, and must close a big reach gap to do anything at all.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit line movement and odds
| Book | Gane ML | Hokit ML | Gane spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +160 | -200 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +144 | -188 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +150 | -190 | — | — |
| Caesars | +165 | -195 | — | — |
Where the money is on Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ciryl Gane: 20% of bets, 33% of the money; Josh Hokit: 80% of bets, 67% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Ciryl Gane (4 wallets, $329,665) vs Josh Hokit (4 wallets, $4,193). Largest: Homely-Gosling $329,545 on Ciryl Gane, Positive-Console $3,784 on Josh Hokit, Modest-Pinto $231 on Josh Hokit.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit: tale of the tape
| Ciryl Gane | Josh Hokit | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 14-2-0 | 10-0-0 |
| UFC record | 11-2 (1 NC) | 4-0 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 120-31 (79.5%) | 35-16 (68.6%) |
| Age | 35 | 28 |
| Height | 6' 4" | 6' 1" |
| Reach | 81" | 73.5" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.40 | 10.28 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.31 | 6.12 |
| Striking accuracy | 62% | 64% |
| Striking defense | 61% | 48% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.66 | 1.50 |
| Takedown defense | 47% | 78% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.58 | 0.50 |
The fighters
- Ciryl Gane (Ciryl Gane): Lands 5.4 significant strikes a minute while opponents miss 61% of their attempts against him, but he stops only 47% of takedowns.
- Josh Hokit (Josh Hokit): Unbeaten at 10-0 as a pro, he lands 10.28 significant strikes a minute but absorbs 6.12 over a small UFC sample.
Numbers that matter
| Gane takedown defense | 47% | The weak spot Hokit's camp is targeting, with Jones' 2023 submission as the blueprint. |
|---|---|---|
| Hokit takedown accuracy | 50% | Half his attempts land, though he has rarely needed to shoot in the UFC. |
| Hokit strikes absorbed per minute | 6.12 | Inflated by the Blaydes brawl, but a real risk against a rangy, accurate champion. |
| Gane moneyline | -207.5 | Down from -265 when our feed first saw the fight, with money moving toward Hokit. |
| Hokit average fight time | 7.5 | Minutes per UFC fight; he has never been scheduled for five rounds. |
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit: quick answers
Who is favored in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
Ciryl Gane is the favorite at -186.5; Josh Hokit is +160.
When is Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, the main event. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
Heavyweight, scheduled for 5 rounds.
Where is Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Ciryl Gane: 20% of bets, 33% of the money; Josh Hokit: 80% of bets, 67% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Ciryl Gane (4 wallets, $329,665) vs Josh Hokit (4 wallets, $4,193). Largest: Homely-Gosling $329,545 on Ciryl Gane, Positive-Console $3,784 on Josh Hokit, Modest-Pinto $231 on Josh Hokit. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.