Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa prediction: Melquizael Costa's head kicks test what's left of Jared Gordon's chin
Costa returns to lightweight with two head-kick knockouts in his last three fights, and Gordon arrives on two straight stoppage losses with one clear route: take him down and keep him there.
| Jared Gordon | +310 (23.4% implied) |
|---|---|
| Melquizael Costa | -395 (76.6% implied) |
- Costa's kicking range and finishing power should control the open space; Gordon's best hope is to turn this into a wrestling grind over three rounds.
- Gordon's path starts with the takedown. Costa stops only 51% of them, and Costa's lone lightweight UFC fight ended with him outwrestled and submitted.
- Costa sits at -380 (75.8% implied), up from -325 when first seen. Gordon's four UFC losses by knockout explain why the money moved.
A durability question at 38
Jared Gordon has always been a fighter who wins by refusing to go away. At 38, the question is whether he still can. He is 9-8 (1 NC) in the UFC, and the losses have increasingly come early: four by knockout and two by submission. His last two fights both ended inside the distance. Rafa Garcia finished him with elbows from side control in the third round in 2025, after Gordon absorbed 91 significant strikes. Then Jim Miller caught him in a guillotine from bottom guard in 3:29 at UFC 328 in May.
That is a dangerous résumé to bring against Melquizael Costa. The Brazilian's last two wins were a kick to the head of Morgan Charriere in 1:14 and a spinning back kick to the head of Dan Ige. Costa knocks opponents down at 0.28 per 15 minutes. He also spreads his offense well: 30% of his landed strikes go to the body and 23% to the legs, so the kick that finishes a fight rarely comes out of nowhere.
Gordon's wrestling lane
Gordon's path is clear. He averages 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes and holds control for 34% of his fight time, far more than Costa's 17%. Costa stops just 51% of takedown attempts, and his lone UFC fight at lightweight, against Thiago Moisés in 2023, ended with him outwrestled and submitted. Gordon later knocked Moisés out in the first round.
The catch is finishing the shot. Gordon lands only 35% of his takedown attempts and went 0-for-13 against Nasrat Haqparast. Getting on top did not save him against Miller either: he landed both of his takedowns and still got choked. Costa holds eight submission wins as a pro and has submitted Andre Fili and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke in the UFC, so top position against him carries real risk.
On the feet, Gordon's volume could matter. He lands 5.57 significant strikes a minute to Costa's 4.29, but he also absorbs 4.11 a minute, and that has been the problem.
Costa's step back up
Costa is No. 12 at featherweight and unranked at lightweight, coming off his first UFC main event. He lost a unanimous decision to Arnold Allen over five rounds in May, which ended a six-fight winning streak. The fight was close on volume: he landed 100 significant strikes and absorbed 98. He went 0-for-4 on takedowns that night, though he logged nearly five minutes of control against Christian Rodriguez in March 2025.
At 30, Costa is eight years younger and has a slight edge in height and reach. The early-prelim slot drew complaints from fans, but it changes nothing inside the cage.
What the market sees
Books have Costa at -380 and Gordon at +295, or 75.8% against 24.2% once the margin is removed. Costa opened in our feed at -325, so the money has moved toward the younger fighter. That price reflects a matchup in which Costa's finishing tools line up with the way Gordon has been losing. Gordon's case depends almost entirely on wrestling volume holding up for 15 minutes.
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa line movement and odds
| Book | Gordon ML | Costa ML | Gordon spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -400 | +310 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -385 | +280 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -395 | +310 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -400 | +285 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -375 | +275 | — | — |
| Caesars | -380 | +300 | — | — |
Where the money is on Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jared Gordon: 56% of bets, 45% of the money; Melquizael Costa: 44% of bets, 56% of the money.
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa: tale of the tape
| Jared Gordon | Melquizael Costa | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 21-9-0 | 26-8-0 |
| UFC record | 9-8 (1 NC) | 7-3 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 106-63-3 (62.7%) | 64-43 (59.8%) |
| Age | 38 | 30 |
| Height | 5' 9" | 5' 10" |
| Reach | 68" | 71" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 5.57 | 4.29 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.11 | 3.19 |
| Striking accuracy | 54% | 47% |
| Striking defense | 55% | 50% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.91 | 1.53 |
| Takedown defense | 60% | 51% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.84 |
The fighters
- Jared Gordon (Jared Gordon): Gordon averages 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes but has lost four UFC fights by knockout.
- Melquizael Costa (Melquizael Costa): Costa's last two wins came by head kicks, and he knocks opponents down at 0.28 per 15 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Gordon UFC KO/TKO losses | 4 | Two straight stoppage losses suggest his durability is fading at 38. |
|---|---|---|
| Costa takedown defense | 51% | This is the opening Gordon's wrestling has to exploit. |
| Gordon takedown accuracy | 35% | He lands only about a third of his shots, and he went 0-for-13 against Haqparast. |
| Gordon strikes absorbed per minute | 4.11 | His volume comes at a price that a kicker like Costa can punish. |
| Costa moneyline | -380 | Costa's price has moved from -325 when our feed first saw the fight. |
Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa: quick answers
Who is favored in Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?
Melquizael Costa is the favorite at -395; Jared Gordon is +310.
When is Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?
Lightweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Jared Gordon vs Melquizael Costa?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jared Gordon: 56% of bets, 45% of the money; Melquizael Costa: 44% of bets, 56% of the money.