Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule prediction: Bilal Hasan's unbeaten power gets its Madison Square Garden stage
The Indonesian flyweight is 10-0 as a pro and a heavy favorite, and Luis Gurule's habit of losing exchanges at range explains why.
| Bilal Hasan | -1100 (87.5% implied) |
|---|---|
| Luis Gurule | +661 (12.5% implied) |
- Hasan likely works at range behind a longer reach, while Gurule, who absorbs 5.65 significant strikes a minute, has to close distance to compete.
- Watch Gurule's takedown entries. He lands 18% of his UFC attempts, and nobody has tested Hasan's takedown defense.
- Money moved to Hasan at -1000 from -950 when first seen. Gurule's 1-4 UFC record bears on that price most.
Unbeaten and in no hurry
Bilal Hasan arrives at Madison Square Garden 10-0 as a pro, with eight of those wins by knockout. His UFC debut in August looked like more of the same. He outlanded Nilson Rojas 53 to 33 in significant strikes and dropped him. The finish came from a punch at distance in the second round.
That is the entire UFC sample, 7.5 minutes, so his rate of 7.1 significant strikes landed per minute is a sketch rather than a portrait. The rest of the picture comes from his regional run as a CFFC flyweight champion with three defenses, and from a camp led by Demetrious Johnson.
The 25-year-old is pacing himself. "I want to take it super slow. I want to, like, build all this," Hasan said in October, with top-10 opposition his target for 2027. Neither man sits in the top 15, but a clean win keeps that plan on schedule.
Gurule's problem at range
Luis Gurule fights almost entirely at distance: 90% of his landed significant strikes come there. That would work if he won those exchanges. He lands 5.02 significant strikes per minute in the UFC but absorbs 5.65.
The recent tape shows the same pattern. Jesus Aguilar and Alden Coria both outlanded him over three rounds, and Coria won 30-27 on all three cards.
The physical gap makes walking forward harder. Hasan stands 5'7" with a 70-inch reach. Gurule is 5'5" with a 64-inch reach. Hasan's switch stance, taekwondo base and spinning attacks give him tools to punish a shorter man stepping in. Gurule's 57% strike defense is respectable, yet Ode Osbourne, a long southpaw, stopped him with a punch in the second round.
Does Gurule have a wrestling route
Gurule came up as a Colorado wrestler and mixes grappling into a pressure style, but the takedowns rarely land: he converts 18% of his attempts. He went one for five on takedowns against Daniel Barez in his lone UFC win. That unanimous decision was built on volume instead, with 149 significant strikes landed.
Hasan's takedown defense is unknown because no opponent has tried. Hasan, for his part, has attempted one takedown in the UFC, while Gurule stops 73% of the takedowns aimed at him.
Gurule's last outing is the worry. He fought twice in May, and the second, against wrestler Rei Tsuruya at bantamweight, ended by rear-naked choke at 3:19 of the first round. He landed one significant strike.
The market's verdict
Books have Hasan at -1000 and Gurule at +637. Stripped of the margin, that works out to 87% for Hasan. The price has only grown since our feed first saw it at -950, with the money moving toward the unbeaten fighter.
Gurule's case rests on experience and making it ugly. He is 32, a former Fury FC flyweight champion and a Contender Series winner, and he has had 168 days to reset since the Tsuruya loss. Hasan has been out 77 days. The real question is whether Gurule can get past the range Hasan wants to fight at long enough to drag him into a grind.
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule line movement and odds
| Book | Hasan ML | Gurule ML | Hasan spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -1100 | +700 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1000 | +600 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -1200 | +750 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -1200 | +630 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1000 | +600 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1000 | +650 | — | — |
Where the money is on Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bilal Hasan: 29% of bets, 57% of the money; Luis Gurule: 71% of bets, 43% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Luis Gurule (1 wallet, $10). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $10 on Luis Gurule. Total: over (1 wallet, $20,500) vs under (1 wallet, $29,500). Largest: Short-Term-Valance $29,500 on under, SineNooneEI $20,500 on over.
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: tale of the tape
| Bilal Hasan | Luis Gurule | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 10-0-0 | 11-4-0 |
| UFC record | 1-0 | 1-4 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 0-0 | 10-11 (47.6%) |
| Age | 25 | 32 |
| Height | 5' 7" | 5' 5" |
| Reach | 70" | 64" |
| Stance | Switch | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 7.10 | 5.02 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 4.42 | 5.65 |
| Striking accuracy | 41% | 41% |
| Striking defense | 50% | 57% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 2.01 | 0.81 |
| Takedown defense | — | 73% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.27 |
The fighters
- Bilal Hasan (Bilal Hasan): Hasan is 10-0 as a pro with eight knockouts, and he stopped Nilson Rojas in his UFC debut.
- Luis Gurule (Luis Gurule): Gurule absorbs 5.65 significant strikes per minute in the UFC, more than the 5.02 he lands.
Numbers that matter
| Gurule strikes absorbed per minute | 5.65 | He takes more than he lands at distance, where Hasan's longer reach should help him. |
|---|---|---|
| Hasan reach | 70 in | Gurule's reach is listed at 64 inches, a real gap at flyweight. |
| Gurule takedown accuracy | 18% | His wrestling background hasn't translated into finished takedowns in the UFC. |
| Hasan moneyline | -1000 | Up from -950 when our feed first saw the fight, with money moving his way. |
| Gurule UFC record | 1-4 | His only UFC win came by decision over Daniel Barez. |
Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule: quick answers
Who is favored in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
Bilal Hasan is the favorite at -1100; Luis Gurule is +661.
When is Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
Flyweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Bilal Hasan: 29% of bets, 57% of the money; Luis Gurule: 71% of bets, 43% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Bilal Hasan vs Luis Gurule?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Luis Gurule (1 wallet, $10). Largest: 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69 $10 on Luis Gurule. Total: over (1 wallet, $20,500) vs under (1 wallet, $29,500). Largest: Short-Term-Valance $29,500 on under, SineNooneEI $20,500 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.