Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui prediction: Can Caio Borralho drag Yousri Belgaroui's knockout length to the mat?
Belgaroui has stopped every UFC opponent from range, and Borralho, never finished in the UFC, has to close that distance and turn this into a grappling fight.
| Caio Borralho | -162 (58.9% implied) |
|---|---|
| Yousri Belgaroui | +132 (41.1% implied) |
- Belgaroui wants a long-range kickboxing match. Borralho wants to survive the entries, find the clinch and grind out three rounds the way he usually does.
- Watch Borralho's level changes. Belgaroui stops only 56% of takedown attempts, the softest spot in an otherwise dangerous profile.
- Borralho is -162 (58.9% implied) after first showing at -120. His 3.3 strikes landed a minute won't win a pure striking contest.
A ranked contender takes the risk
Caio Borralho is 8-1 in the UFC, holds a spot in the middleweight top tier and talks openly about a title run. He accepted a fight with an unranked 6' 6" former kickboxer who has knocked out everyone the UFC has put in front of him. Borralho knows why the promotion likes his opponent. "The UFC is turning more to entertainment than sport, and [Belgaroui] is a guy who is knocking everybody out. He is a striker and they value strikers a lot," Borralho said.
Borralho also said he will fight his own way and won't be pressured into recklessness. Against this opponent, that discipline is the whole game plan.
The length and the volume
Yousri Belgaroui lands 8.35 significant strikes a minute and absorbs just 1.93. Those figures come from only 29.0 UFC minutes across three fights, so treat them as a sketch rather than a baseline. The sketch is still alarming. Against Mansur Abdul-Malik he landed 94 significant strikes, took 16 and finished with a clinch knee in the third round. Against Djorden Santos he worked behind leg kicks and long body shots before ending it in the first.
He also carries a 79-inch reach against Borralho's 75. Borralho lands 3.3 significant strikes a minute and makes opponents miss 60% of the time. That is solid defense, but he is not a volume fighter. He has never been stopped in the UFC, and six of his eight UFC wins went to the judges. If this stays at distance, Belgaroui sets the pace.
The mat is Borralho's road
The clearest crack in Belgaroui's game is his takedown defense: he stops 56% of attempts. Borralho lands 1.08 takedowns per 15 minutes and spends 27% of his fight time in control. Nothing Belgaroui has faced in the UFC looks like a contender trying to pin him against the fence.
There is a caveat. Against Nassourdine Imavov, the one opponent who beat him in the UFC, Borralho went 0 for 5 on takedowns and lost a wide decision. Getting inside a 6' 6" kickboxer is harder than getting inside Imavov. Borralho will likely have to absorb a few long shots to get there.
The rib behind the layoff
Borralho revealed that he fought Reinier de Ridder in March on a broken rib and still won 30-27 on all three cards. He said the UFC did not know how bad the injury was. An MRI afterward showed the damage had worsened, which led to emergency surgery and his withdrawal from a planned bout with Joe Pyfer. He says he has fully recovered.
The result is a 252-day gap since his last fight. Belgaroui will be just 63 days removed from the Santos knockout. One fighter arrives rusty and the other arrives sharp, and that cuts against the favorite.
Where the money went
Borralho sits at -162 with Belgaroui at +132, an implied 58.9% for the favorite once the margin is removed. Our feed first saw Borralho at -120, so the money has moved firmly toward the contender. The market is betting on his schedule and his grappling over Belgaroui's highlight reel, despite his long layoff and the questions about his rib.
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui line movement and odds
| Book | Borralho ML | Belgaroui ML | Borralho spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -165 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +132 | -165 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +130 | -155 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +126 | -162 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -165 | — | — |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 | — | — |
Where the money is on Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui
On the Kalshi moneyline: Caio Borralho: 42% of bets, 60% of the money; Yousri Belgaroui: 58% of bets, 40% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Yousri Belgaroui (1 wallet, $804). Largest: Homely-Gosling $804 on Yousri Belgaroui.
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui: tale of the tape
| Caio Borralho | Yousri Belgaroui | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 18-2-0 | 11-3-0 |
| UFC record | 8-1 | 3-0 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 42-22-1 (65.6%) | 6-2-1 (75%) |
| Age | 33 | 34 |
| Height | 6' 1" | 6' 6" |
| Reach | 75" | 79" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.30 | 8.35 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.63 | 1.93 |
| Striking accuracy | 55% | 65% |
| Striking defense | 60% | 70% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.08 | 0.52 |
| Takedown defense | 74% | 56% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.43 | 0.00 |
The fighters
- Caio Borralho (Caio Borralho): Borralho is 8-1 in the UFC and has never been finished, winning six of those eight fights by decision.
- Yousri Belgaroui (Yousri Belgaroui): Belgaroui lands 8.35 significant strikes a minute, though that rate is built on only 29.0 UFC minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Belgaroui takedown defense | 56% | This is the clearest opening for Borralho, who controls opponents for 27% of his fight time. |
|---|---|---|
| Belgaroui strikes landed per minute | 8.35 | His volume dwarfs Borralho's 3.3 and makes a long-range fight dangerous for the favorite. |
| Borralho days since last fight | 252 | His layoff followed emergency rib surgery, while Belgaroui fought 63 days ago. |
| Borralho moneyline | -162 | He first showed at -120, so the market has moved toward the contender. |
Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui: quick answers
Who is favored in Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
Caio Borralho is the favorite at -162; Yousri Belgaroui is +132.
When is Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the main card. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
Middleweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Caio Borralho: 42% of bets, 60% of the money; Yousri Belgaroui: 58% of bets, 40% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Caio Borralho vs Yousri Belgaroui?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Yousri Belgaroui (1 wallet, $804). Largest: Homely-Gosling $804 on Yousri Belgaroui. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.