Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida prediction: Donte Johnson's unbeaten power faces a sliding Brazilian kickboxer at MSG
A late swap hands the 9-0 southpaw a decorated striker who is 38, on a two-fight skid and coming off a first-round knockout loss.
| Donte Johnson | -175 (60.9% implied) |
|---|---|
| Cesar Almeida | +145 (39.1% implied) |
- Johnson likely pressures early behind southpaw power. Almeida needs long, clean exchanges at range to steal rounds and survive into the third.
- Watch Johnson's level changes: he has landed every UFC takedown he has tried, and Almeida stops only 48% of attempts.
- Johnson is -174, up from -165 when first seen. Almeida's 43% striking defense is the number that best explains the drift.
A late swap, a different test
Donte Johnson was supposed to spend this Saturday in a battle of unbeaten prospects. Baisangur Susurkaev, 12-0, withdrew from the bout, and the reason remains unconfirmed. Cesar Almeida took the spot in late September.
So instead of another young undefeated fighter, Johnson (9-0 as a pro, 3-0 in the UFC) gets a veteran headed the other way. Almeida is 3-3 in the UFC and has dropped two straight. He is 38 on fight night, facing a 27-year-old who has not lost as a professional.
Accuracy against the hammer
Almeida's résumé is real. He was ranked the world's second-best middleweight kickboxer as of January 2023, and it shows in his efficiency: he lands 60% of his significant strikes, at 3.48 a minute. He works the whole body, with 36% of his landed strikes going to the torso.
The flaw is what comes back. Almeida's opponents land more often than they miss, since he avoids only 43% of incoming strikes. Damian Pinas found the chin with a punch at 4:44 of the first round in July.
That is a bad trend line against Johnson, who scores 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes and finished Eric McConico with a punch in 1:38 in August. Johnson is not a volume striker. He picks his shots from the southpaw stance and makes opponents miss 63% of the time.
The wrestling lane
If the striking turns into a range battle, Johnson has a second gear. He averages 1.95 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed every one he has tried. Against Sedriques Dumas he went 3-for-3, then finished with a submission in the second round.
Almeida stops just 48% of takedown attempts, so Johnson can mix level changes into his entries whenever the kickboxer finds his rhythm. The caveat: Johnson's UFC rates rest on only 23.1 minutes of cage time. His one decision, a split over Cody Brundage, came with zero takedowns but 212 seconds of control, a sign he can grind position even when the shots aren't landing clean.
Where the market sits
Seven books are quoting the fight, with a median of -174 on Johnson and +143 on Almeida, a no-vig 60.7% for the favorite. The money has moved toward Johnson since the line was first seen at -165.
Almeida's path is narrow but visible. The Brundage split shows Johnson can be dragged into close rounds, and Almeida's accuracy and body work are built for scoring at distance. He has to win those exchanges without getting caught, which is exactly what he failed to do against Pinas.
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida line movement and odds
| Book | Johnson ML | Almeida ML | Johnson spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +138 | -175 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +145 | -175 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +136 | -174 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -170 | — | — |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 | — | — |
Where the money is on Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida
On the Kalshi moneyline: Donte Johnson: 50% of bets, 28% of the money; Cesar Almeida: 50% of bets, 72% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Donte Johnson (1 wallet, $17,977) vs Cesar Almeida (1 wallet, $432). Largest: SineNooneEI $17,977 on Donte Johnson, Able-Sunglasses $432 on Cesar Almeida.
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: tale of the tape
| Donte Johnson | Cesar Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 9-0-0 | 7-3-0 |
| UFC record | 3-0 | 3-3 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 10-12-1 (45.5%) | 13-13 (50%) |
| Age | 27 | 38 |
| Height | 5' 8" | 6' 1" |
| Reach | 74" | 74" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 2.86 | 3.48 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 1.82 | 2.32 |
| Striking accuracy | 43% | 60% |
| Striking defense | 63% | 43% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.95 | 0.25 |
| Takedown defense | 77% | 48% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.65 | 0.25 |
The fighters
- Donte Johnson (Donte Johnson): Unbeaten at 9-0 as a pro, he scores 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes in the UFC.
- Cesar Almeida (Cesar Almeida): He lands 60% of his significant strikes but avoids only 43% of his opponents' strikes.
Numbers that matter
| Almeida takedown defense | 48% | Johnson has landed every UFC takedown he has attempted, giving him an easy second route if the striking stalls. |
|---|---|---|
| Almeida striking defense | 43% | Opponents land more often than they miss, and his last fight ended in a first-round knockout. |
| Johnson knockdowns per 15 minutes | 0.65 | His most recent win came by punch at 1:38 of the first round. |
| Johnson moneyline | -174 | The price has firmed from -165 when first seen. |
Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida: quick answers
Who is favored in Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
Donte Johnson is the favorite at -175; Cesar Almeida is +145.
When is Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
Middleweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Donte Johnson: 50% of bets, 28% of the money; Cesar Almeida: 50% of bets, 72% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Donte Johnson vs Cesar Almeida?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Donte Johnson (1 wallet, $17,977) vs Cesar Almeida (1 wallet, $432). Largest: SineNooneEI $17,977 on Donte Johnson, Able-Sunglasses $432 on Cesar Almeida. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.