Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke prediction: Wonderboy's farewell hinges on keeping Chuck Buffalo off his hips
Stephen Thompson wants one last night at range in New York, and Charles Radtke has spent his last two fights proving he would rather hold someone down.
| Stephen Thompson | -153 (58% implied) |
|---|---|
| Charles Radtke | +128.5 (42% implied) |
- Thompson owns range and pace standing; Radtke's path runs through takedowns and long stretches of top control, which carried his last two wins.
- Watch the first time Radtke crosses into the clinch: Thompson stops 63% of takedown attempts, and wrestling has beaten him before.
- Thompson is -148 after opening near -110 in our feed, a 57.3% chance, despite a 490-day layoff at age 43.
Can Radtke drag him down
Stephen Thompson's final UFC fight is at Madison Square Garden, where he first challenged for the title, and the man across from him is a former lightweight who has turned into a control artist. Charles Radtke's last two wins were built on top position. He held Daniel Frunza down for 701 seconds before finishing a rear-naked choke in the third round, then logged 547 seconds of control against Francisco Prado on short notice in April.
That is not a two-fight blip. Radtke controls 51% of his UFC fight time and lands 1.99 takedowns per 15 minutes. Thompson stops 63% of takedown attempts, a decent number that has not always held. Wrestling was a reliable route against him in 2021, when Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad both took decisions, and Thompson himself says wrestling and jiu-jitsu have contributed to the injuries pushing him into retirement.
Wonderboy still rules distance
If the fight stays standing, it is Thompson's. He lands 90% of his significant strikes at distance, the bladed karate stance and long kicks intact after 14 years in the UFC. He lands 4.05 significant strikes a minute; Radtke lands 2.5. Thompson also holds the reach, 75 inches to 72, and stands three inches taller.
Radtke can crack. His left hook is his best weapon, and he flattened Matthew Semelsberger in 0:51. But both of his UFC losses came by knockout, against Mike Malott and Carlos Prates, and Prates in particular has the reach to hit him from outside. Thompson has 6 KO wins in the UFC, and his long-range game is the shape of striking that has beaten Radtke before.
Age, rust and the schedule
The case against Thompson is time. He is 43, he has not fought in 490 days, and he enters on three straight losses, to Shavkat Rakhmonov by choke, Joaquin Buckley by knockout and Gabriel Bonfim by split decision. He said the Bonfim fight showed his body could not take more punishment, and that feeling healthy at fight week has become harder. No specific fight-week injury has been reported.
The schedule cuts the other way. Thompson's last five opponents were a combined 74.5% winners in the UFC going in; Radtke's were at 50.0%. Radtke is 5-2 in the UFC, but on just 60.3 minutes of cage time, and he has not yet faced anyone with Thompson's footwork. Thompson is 12-9-1 in the UFC and 17-9-1 as a pro.
The market leans sentimental
Six books quote the fight, and money has moved toward the retiring veteran. Thompson sits at -148 after our feed first saw him at -110, while Radtke has drifted to +124.5 from -106. The current price implies a 57.3% chance for Thompson. That move is a bet that the distance game holds for 15 minutes, and the 63% takedown defense is the number that has to carry it.
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke line movement and odds
| Book | Thompson ML | Radtke ML | Thompson spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +133 | -167 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +126 | -162 | — | — |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 | — | — |
Where the money is on Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stephen Thompson: 61% of bets, 85% of the money; Charles Radtke: 39% of bets, 15% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Stephen Thompson (1 wallet, $396). Largest: Able-Sunglasses $396 on Stephen Thompson. Total: over (1 wallet, $3,313). Largest: SineNooneEI $3,313 on over.
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: tale of the tape
| Stephen Thompson | Charles Radtke | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 17-9-1 | 12-5-0 |
| UFC record | 12-9-1 | 5-2 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 145-60-2 (70.7%) | 12-14 (46.2%) |
| Age | 43 | 36 |
| Height | 6' 0" | 5' 9" |
| Reach | 75" | 72" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 4.05 | 2.50 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 3.00 | 2.45 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 54% |
| Striking defense | 55% | 55% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 0.23 | 1.99 |
| Takedown defense | 63% | 100% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.00 | 0.50 |
The fighters
- Stephen Thompson (Stephen Thompson): Lands 90% of his significant strikes at distance and 4.05 per minute, but enters off a 490-day layoff on a three-fight skid.
- Charles Radtke (Charles Radtke): Controls 51% of his UFC fight time, including 701 seconds against Daniel Frunza in a submission win.
Numbers that matter
| Thompson takedown defense | 63% | The figure that decides whether this stays a kickboxing match against a fighter who wants top position. |
|---|---|---|
| Radtke control share | 51% | Radtke spends over half his UFC fight time in control, a strong sign of his game plan here. |
| Radtke control vs. Prado | 547 | Seconds of control in his most recent win, earned on short notice in April. |
| Thompson strikes landed per minute | 4.05 | Well ahead of Radtke's 2.5, the standing edge Thompson needs to protect. |
| Thompson moneyline | -148 | Moved from -110 when our feed first saw the fight, money backing the farewell. |
Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke: quick answers
Who is favored in Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
Stephen Thompson is the favorite at -153; Charles Radtke is +128.5.
When is Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
Welterweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stephen Thompson: 61% of bets, 85% of the money; Charles Radtke: 39% of bets, 15% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Stephen Thompson vs Charles Radtke?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Stephen Thompson (1 wallet, $396). Largest: Able-Sunglasses $396 on Stephen Thompson. Total: over (1 wallet, $3,313). Largest: SineNooneEI $3,313 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.