Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita prediction: Bia Mesquita's guard is the place Macy Chiasson cannot afford to visit
An unbeaten submission artist who wins from her back faces a long veteran on a three-fight skid who has to keep this fight vertical and at range.
- Chiasson wants a long, upright fight on the scorecards; Mesquita wants one grappling scramble, and her finishes have come fast.
- Any clinch or takedown exchange: Mesquita armbarred Melissa Mullins from guard, so even Chiasson landing on top may not be safe.
- No US sportsbook price yet. Most relevant number: Mesquita's 3 UFC wins have all come by submission across just 12.6 UFC minutes.
Top position is not safety
Most fighters facing a decorated jiu-jitsu player plan to stay on top. Mesquita, a 10-time BJJ world champion and ADCC champion, makes that plan dangerous. Her most recent win, in June, was an armbar from guard over Melissa Mullins, a wrestler who landed on top and lost the arm.
The numbers fit that picture. Mesquita attempts 3.57 submissions per 15 minutes in the UFC, against 0.39 for Chiasson. Her takedown defense sits at 0%, but it hasn't mattered, because the mat is where she wants to be. When Mesquita initiates, she completes 75% of her takedowns.
Chiasson does have grappling of her own. She has won twice by submission in the UFC, most recently a rear-naked choke of Pannie Kianzad in 2024. But she has also been submitted, by Raquel Pennington, and she went 0-for-2 on takedowns against Ailin Perez in February.
Seven inches of height to use
Chiasson stands 5'11" with a 72-inch reach. Mesquita is 5'4" with a 67.5-inch reach. That gap is Chiasson's whole case: her best nights have come using reach, pressure and clinch work to dictate pace, and the plan this week is simple to say and hard to do. Control the distance, and don't linger in grappling exchanges.
Mesquita's striking is a work in progress, and she has said she is sharpening it. She was rocked by Mullins before recovering to find the armbar, the one real crack in an otherwise clean 8-0 pro run. Chiasson owns three KO wins in the UFC, so the power to test that again exists.
The worry is recent output. Chiasson landed 8 significant strikes against Perez while absorbing 27. A tall fighter who isn't throwing hands a small grappler free entries.
A skid against a short résumé
Chiasson has lost three straight, all by unanimous decision, to Ketlen Vieira, Yana Santos and Perez. None was a blowout, and her last five opponents carried a combined UFC record of 29-17-1, a real schedule. A fourth straight loss would land hard at 35.
Mesquita, also 35, is 3-0 in the UFC, but her opponents went in a combined 5-5. She has never seen the third round in the promotion; her average fight lasts 4.2 minutes. Three rounds of a rangy, durable veteran who has gone the distance repeatedly is a new test. If Chiasson survives the early scrambles and keeps her feet, the later rounds become her territory.
Where the money is on Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita
On the Kalshi moneyline: Macy Chiasson: 58% of bets, 64% of the money; Bia Mesquita: 42% of bets, 36% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Total: over (1 wallet, $542) vs under (1 wallet, $824). Largest: Short-Term-Valance $824 on under, SineNooneEI $542 on over.
Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita: tale of the tape
| Macy Chiasson | Bia Mesquita | |
|---|---|---|
| Pro record | 11-6-0 | 8-0-0 |
| UFC record | 8-6 | 3-0 |
| Opponents' combined UFC record | 58-40-2 (59.2%) | 5-5 (50%) |
| Age | 35 | 35 |
| Height | 5' 11" | 5' 4" |
| Reach | 72" | 67.5" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Sig. strikes landed / min | 3.21 | 4.52 |
| Sig. strikes absorbed / min | 2.76 | 1.27 |
| Striking accuracy | 46% | 57% |
| Striking defense | 45% | 71% |
| Takedowns / 15 min | 1.87 | 3.57 |
| Takedown defense | 62% | 0% |
| Submission attempts / 15 min | 0.39 | 3.57 |
The fighters
- Macy Chiasson (Macy Chiasson): She stops 62% of takedown attempts, a number she likely needs to improve against a fighter who completes 75% of hers.
- Bia Mesquita (Bia Mesquita): All three of her UFC wins came by submission, with 3.57 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Mesquita submission attempts per 15 | 3.57 | Chiasson averages 0.39, the clearest gap in the matchup. |
|---|---|---|
| Chiasson reach | 72 | Mesquita's reach is 67.5 inches, so the jab and the frame belong to Chiasson. |
| Chiasson strikes landed vs. Perez | 8 | She absorbed 27 in that loss, the low point of her three-fight skid. |
| Mesquita average fight time (minutes) | 4.2 | She has yet to see a third round in the UFC; this is scheduled for three. |
Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita: quick answers
When is Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit, on the early prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
Women's Bantamweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
Madison Square Garden, New York, NY, USA.
Where is the money on Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Macy Chiasson: 58% of bets, 64% of the money; Bia Mesquita: 42% of bets, 36% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Macy Chiasson vs Bia Mesquita?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Total: over (1 wallet, $542) vs under (1 wallet, $824). Largest: Short-Term-Valance $824 on under, SineNooneEI $542 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.