Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren prediction: Sezinando needs takedowns to keep Berggren's 75-inch reach quiet
Both welterweights were knocked out at distance by Daniil Donchenko, so the fight turns on whether Sezinando can drag it out of the range where Berggren lives.
| Rodrigo Sezinando | -181.5 (62% implied) |
|---|---|
| Theodor Berggren | +153 (38% implied) |
- Berggren wants a long-range jab fight; Sezinando, a jiu-jitsu black belt, should chase takedowns early to keep this out of open striking exchanges.
- Watch Sezinando's first takedown entries. Against Donchenko he landed 1 of 4, and both men were finished by punches at distance.
- Sezinando is -176.5 (61.1% no-vig) and has firmed from -171, despite a 413-day layoff since his only UFC fight.
The Donchenko yardstick
Two fighters chasing their first UFC win share the same tormentor. Daniil Donchenko stopped Rodrigo Sezinando in the TUF 33 welterweight final, then did the same to Theodor Berggren in Baku in June. Saturday's prelim at the Meta APEX is, in effect, a ranking of who survived him better.
Neither loss flatters. Sezinando landed 10 significant strikes and absorbed 39 before the stoppage at 4:27 of the first round. Berggren lasted into the second, falling at 1:35 to a head kick and punches, but absorbed 71 while landing 23. Each man has only one UFC fight, so every rate in their profiles rests on a few minutes of work. What those minutes show is the same weakness: both were broken down by punches at distance.
Where Sezinando wants it
Sezinando reached the TUF final by grinding, winning his semifinal with wrestling on a split decision. He is a jiu-jitsu black belt, and his pro record shows the threat: 3-0 by submission among his 9-2 total. Against Donchenko he did try to change levels, landing 1 of 4 takedowns and banking 62 seconds of control before the striking caught up with him.
That is the blueprint against Berggren. The Swede's lone UFC appearance came on short notice and offered no read on his takedown defense, because Donchenko never shot. Berggren lists the rear-naked choke as his favorite grappling technique, but he has also lost once by submission as a pro. Sezinando's best path runs through the clinch and the mat, not a long kickboxing match.
Berggren's length and the layoff
Berggren stands 5' 11" with a 75-inch reach and fights out of a switch stance. Sezinando is 5' 9" with a 71-inch reach. Berggren has said the matchup suits his length and size, names the stiff jab as his favorite strike, and wants to keep Sezinando on the end of it. In Baku, 87% of his landed significant strikes came at distance.
He has also claimed a 100 percent finish rate and said his gas tank will outlast Sezinando's. The calendar backs part of that: Berggren last fought 126 days ago, while Sezinando has been out 413 days. Berggren also says this camp ran much longer than the short-notice one before his debut.
Both made weight Friday, Sezinando at 170.5 pounds and Berggren at 171. Unconfirmed talk of a Sezinando drop to lightweight never showed up on the scale.
Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren line movement and odds
| Book | Sezinando ML | Berggren ML | Sezinando spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -190 | +155 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -180 | +143 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -170 | +142 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -178 | +150 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -180 | +145 | — | — |
| Caesars | -185 | +155 | — | — |
The fighters
- Rodrigo Sezinando (Rodrigo Sezinando): The TUF 33 finalist is 9-2 as a pro with three submission wins and landed 1 of 4 takedowns against Donchenko.
- Theodor Berggren (Theodor Berggren): His 75-inch reach is his main weapon, but he absorbed 71 significant strikes in his UFC debut loss.
Numbers that matter
| Berggren reach | 75 in | Sezinando's reach is 71 inches, and Berggren's game plan is built around keeping him at range. |
|---|---|---|
| Sezinando takedowns vs. Donchenko | 1 of 4 | His wrestling is his clearest edge, but conversion was poor in his only UFC fight. |
| Berggren strikes absorbed vs. Donchenko | 71 | A heavy beating at distance that Sezinando may not have the striking volume to replicate. |
| Sezinando days since last fight | 413 | A long layoff against an opponent who fought in June. |
| Sezinando moneyline | -176.5 | Firmed from -171 when first seen, an implied 61.1% with the margin removed. |
Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren: quick answers
Who is favored in Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?
Rodrigo Sezinando is the favorite at -181.5; Theodor Berggren is +153.
When is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, on the prelims. That part of the card starts Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 5:00 PM ET.
What weight class is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?
Welterweight, scheduled for 3 rounds.
Where is Rodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor Berggren?
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA.