Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders prediction: Drew Lock and Seattle's suffocating defense carry the Seahawks into Las Vegas
With Sam Darnold out and two starting linemen doubtful, the defending champions will lean on a defense that has allowed the fewest passing yards in the league, and the market has moved toward them anyway.
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 40.5 |
Las Vegas Raiders win 29% of the simulated games, Seattle Seahawks 71%. Median score: Seattle Seahawks 23, Las Vegas Raiders 17. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a grinding Seattle game plan: lots of runs into a porous Raiders front, short throws from Lock, and a defense built to keep Cousins under 20 points.
- Kirk Cousins and Brock Bowers against a Seattle pass defense that leads the league in passing yards allowed per game.
- Seattle has moved from -3.5 to -6.5 since our feed first saw this game. The total has dropped to 40.5 despite the Raiders going over in 7 of 9.
Cousins faces the league's best pass defense
The Raiders can throw. They rank 6th in passing yards per game, and Kirk Cousins has 20 touchdown passes. The problem is what comes with them. He threw three interceptions in last week's 38-17 loss at San Francisco, including a pick-six on the first play of the second half, and the calls for No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza are getting louder.
Seattle is the worst possible opponent for a quarterback in that spot. The Seahawks allow 168.8 passing yards per game, 1st of 32, and give up explosive plays (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) on just 5.1% of snaps, 2nd in the league. Opponents convert only 30.6% of third downs against them.
Cousins will at least have time. Las Vegas allows sacks on 3.3% of dropbacks, 2nd-best in the NFL, so Brock Bowers should see his targets. The opening for the Raiders is the red zone. Seattle allows touchdowns on 75.0% of opponent red-zone trips, 29th, which explains how a defense this strong still gave up 34 points to Chicago two weeks ago.
Lock and a patched-up line
Darnold is out with quad and rib injuries and is targeting a return after the Week 11 bye. That makes this Drew Lock's game, oblique and all. Lock is listed as questionable, but Mike Macdonald sounded confident: "Good exam for Drew. He's dealing with an oblique. I think it's something he can manage and play in the game." Jalen Milroe is the backup.
Lock has been the steadier passer this season, completing 71.1% of his throws with no interceptions in three games. That matters for an offense ranked 24th in giveaways against a Raiders defense that ranks 4th in takeaways.
His protection is the worry. Left tackle Charles Cross (high ankle sprain) and guard Quenton Nelson (knee procedure) are both listed as doubtful as of Tuesday, and Macdonald said Monday that Nelson will miss the game. Josh Jones filled in at left tackle in Week 9. If Lock gets clean pockets, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has room to work against a Raiders defense ranked 30th in EPA per dropback allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points). Smith-Njigba averages 115.1 receiving yards per game.
Seattle's run game finds a soft spot
Seattle hasn't run the ball well. It ranks 27th in EPA per designed run, and Emanuel Wilson averages 3.6 yards a carry. But Macdonald's offense keeps running anyway, ranking 28th in early-down pass rate, and this is the week that stubbornness should pay off.
The Raiders allow 151.2 rushing yards per game, last in the league, and allow 6.3 yards per play, also 32nd. With a backup quarterback and a reshuffled line, a steady diet of Wilson and Jadarian Price is the obvious plan. The Raiders have no answer of their own on the ground: they rank 31st in rushing yards per game, so Seattle's front can tee off on Cousins in obvious passing downs.
What the market is saying
Seattle moved from 3.5-point favorites to 6.5 since our feed first recorded the game. The total dropped from 43.5 to 40.5 at the same time.
Those two moves point to the same script: a Seattle defense that has allowed 3 points in two of its last three games, against a Raiders team that has lost five of its last six and is 1-3 at home. The counterweight is Las Vegas' scoring history. The Raiders' defense allows a league-worst 29.8 points per game, and their games have gone over the total in 7 of 9.
The Seahawks have their bye after this game. The last meeting, in 2022, went to overtime before the Raiders won 40-34, but neither roster looks much like it did then.
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders line movement and odds
| Book | Seahawks ML | Raiders ML | Seahawks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -295 | +240 | -6.5 (-110) | o40.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -286 | +225 | -6.5 (-110) | o40.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | -290 | +235 | -6.5 (-108) | o40.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | -290 | +240 | -6.5 (-115) | o40.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -285 | +230 | -6.5 (-110) | o40.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -300 | +245 | -6.5 (-110) | o40.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -300 | +240 | -6.5 (-110) | o40.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -280 | +230 | -6.5 (-106) | o40.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders
On the Kalshi moneyline: Seattle Seahawks: 59% of bets, 87% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders: 41% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Seahawks -6.5: 80% of bets, 89% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders +6.5: 20% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 40.5: 47% of bets, 66% of the money; Under 40.5: 53% of bets, 34% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks (2 wallets, $672) vs Las Vegas Raiders (2 wallets, $83). Largest: Gracious-Junk $619 on Seattle Seahawks, Masculine-Tophat $64 on Las Vegas Raiders, Rubbery-Policy $53 on Seattle Seahawks. Spread: Seattle Seahawks (2 wallets, $654) vs Las Vegas Raiders (2 wallets, $662). Largest: 0x842c… $583 on Seattle Seahawks, Official-Arrogance $560 on Las Vegas Raiders, Sore-Crime $102 on Las Vegas Raiders.
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders stats (this season)
| Stat | Seattle Seahawks | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 4-5 |
| Points per game | 22.4 (18th of 32) | 26.4 (8th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0 (4th of 32) | 29.8 (32nd of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | -0.04 (23rd of 32) | -0.01 (16th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | -0.10 (5th of 32) | 0.09 (31st of 32) |
| Yards per play | 5.3 (20th of 32) | 5.5 (16th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.2 (1st of 32) | 6.3 (32nd of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 232.1 (19th of 32) | 266.8 (6th of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 110.8 (18th of 32) | 71.3 (31st of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 37.4% (20th of 32) | 43.8% (6th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 50.0% (25th of 32) | 52.9% (21st of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 6.0% (16th of 32) | 3.3% (2nd of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | -0.3 (23rd of 32) | 0.3 (12th of 32) |
Trends for this game
Seattle Seahawks
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); SEA 40-58. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 12, betting against).
- Road favorites: all teams 1212-1228 ATS (49.7%); SEA 40-54. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 6, betting against).
- Teams with a new starting QB: all teams 663-704 ATS (48.5%). No edge at -110.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Home underdogs: all teams 1228-1212 ATS (50.3%); LV 48-61. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4, betting against).
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); LV 49-55. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Teams with a new starting QB: all teams 663-704 ATS (48.5%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Drew Lock (Seattle Seahawks): In three 2026 games, Lock has completed 71.1% of his passes with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks): His 1,036 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season make him the focal point of any Seattle passing game.
- Emanuel Wilson (Seattle Seahawks): Wilson has 403 rushing yards on 3.6 yards per carry this season and gets the league's worst run defense.
- Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas Raiders): Cousins has 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions this season, three of those picks coming last week.
- Brock Bowers (Las Vegas Raiders): Bowers averages 94.0 receiving yards per game across seven games this season.
- Ashton Jeanty (Las Vegas Raiders): Jeanty is averaging 3.2 yards per carry this season but has caught 42 passes.
Numbers that matter
| Seattle passing yards allowed | 168.8 | Best in the league, and Cousins' passing game is the Raiders' main way to move the ball. |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders rushing yards allowed | 151.2 | Ranked 32nd, which gives a struggling Seattle ground game its best matchup of the season. |
| Seattle opponent red-zone TD rate | 75.0% | Ranked 29th, the one place Seattle's defense has bent badly. |
| Current spread | -6.5 | Seattle's number has climbed from -3.5 since our feed first recorded the game. |
| Current total | 40.5 | Down from 43.5, even though Raiders games have gone over seven times this season. |
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders: quick answers
Who is favored in Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Seattle Seahawks is favored by 6.5 points (Seattle Seahawks -6.5).
What is the over/under for Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
The total is 40.5 points.
When is Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 4:05 PM ET.
Where is Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders played?
Allegiant Stadium.
Has the line moved for Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Yes: Seattle Seahawks opened -3.5 and is now -6.5, and the total moved from 43.5 to 40.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Seattle Seahawks: 59% of bets, 87% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders: 41% of bets, 13% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Seahawks -6.5: 80% of bets, 89% of the money; Las Vegas Raiders +6.5: 20% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 40.5: 47% of bets, 66% of the money; Under 40.5: 53% of bets, 34% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Seattle Seahawks (2 wallets, $672) vs Las Vegas Raiders (2 wallets, $83). Largest: Gracious-Junk $619 on Seattle Seahawks, Masculine-Tophat $64 on Las Vegas Raiders, Rubbery-Policy $53 on Seattle Seahawks. Spread: Seattle Seahawks (2 wallets, $654) vs Las Vegas Raiders (2 wallets, $662). Largest: 0x842c… $583 on Seattle Seahawks, Official-Arrogance $560 on Las Vegas Raiders, Sore-Crime $102 on Las Vegas Raiders. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.