Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts prediction: Malik Willis's groin hangs over a Colts team sold for parts
Indianapolis shipped out Quenton Nelson and DeForest Buckner, but Miami's hobbled quarterback and the league's worst pass defense may shape Sunday more than any trade.
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 38 |
Indianapolis Colts win 58% of the simulated games, Miami Dolphins 42%. Median score: Miami Dolphins 19, Indianapolis Colts 21. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a grind built on the run: both offenses rank 24th or worse in EPA per play, and neither defense forces many turnovers.
- Jonathan Taylor and his eight rushing touchdowns against a Miami run defense ranked 22nd in EPA per designed run allowed.
- Colts -2.5 and a 40.5 total haven't budged since our feed first saw them; Indianapolis's -1.2 turnover margin per game ranks 31st.
Everything runs through Willis's groin
Two teams with a combined three wins play for little beyond pride, and the Colts' front office has already started tearing things down. The swing factor is in Miami's quarterback room. Malik Willis is questionable with a groin injury that visibly hampered him in Sunday's 19-9 loss to Detroit, when he went 13 of 25 for 128 yards and an interception. "It was tight today, you could see it," Mike Hafley said. "He wasn't quite able to go full speed." As of Monday, Hafley had not yet met with the medical staff about resting him. If Willis can't go, Kyle McCord is the backup.
A limited Willis matters because his legs carry this offense. He averages 6.1 yards per carry, and his arm alone has produced a 58.2% completion rate. Mobility also offsets a line that has been beaten all year: Miami allows a 9.4% sack rate (sacks per dropback), 30th in the league, and Willis has gone down 24 times. Laremy Tunsil is listed on injured reserve with a triceps injury. The Colts rank 16th in sack rate, and Buckner has since left for San Francisco.
Jones gets the softest secondary in football
Indianapolis kept Daniel Jones through the deadline, and he draws a favorable target. Miami allows 0.26 EPA per dropback (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points), the worst mark in the league. The Dolphins also rank 32nd in defensive success rate, the share of snaps where the opponent stays on schedule. Cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. was not ready to return to practice as of Nov. 5.
The problem is that Jones has been almost as poor as that defense. The Colts sit 31st in EPA per dropback, and Jones has thrown 10 interceptions at 5.7 yards per attempt. He went 20 of 34 for 180 yards against Dallas. Alec Pierce is on injured reserve with a heel injury, and Shane Steichen said he "can't put a timetable on it right now." Protection is thinner too. Nelson is gone to Seattle, and right tackle Jalen Travis is expected to miss two to four weeks with a knee injury.
Taylor's best path to points
The cleanest edge for either side is the Indianapolis ground game. The Colts rank 6th in EPA per designed run, and Jonathan Taylor has 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. Miami ranks 22nd against designed runs. Taylor and Josh Downs were both in trade talks ahead of the deadline, so their status bears watching.
The Colts' run defense is the worst in the league by EPA and gives up 137.0 rushing yards per game, 30th. Miami's answer is Ollie Gordon II, who has 463 yards at 4.3 per carry. Jaylen Wright is out with a quad injury, and De'Von Achane has been on injured reserve since Sept. 28. Expect Gordon and Willis's scrambles to carry the load.
Mistakes and a short number
Indianapolis gives the ball away 1.9 times per game, 29th, and its defense ranks 31st in takeaways. That combination is why a 2-7 home team is only a modest favorite after five straight losses. Miami counters on 3rd down, converting 41.6% (10th). That runs straight into a Colts defense allowing just 32.4% on 3rd down, 5th in the league.
The market has been steady at Colts -2.5 with a 40.5 total, and the Colts sit at -136 on the moneyline. Miami has covered three of its last five as an underdog. The Dolphins also run only 55.5 plays per game, 31st, which helps explain the low total. The Colts have won the last three meetings, including a 33-8 rout in the 2025 opener.
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts line movement and odds
| Book | Dolphins ML | Colts ML | Dolphins spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 | +4 (-110) | o38 (-108) |
| BetRivers | +165 | -210 | +4 (-112) | o38.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +170 | -205 | +3.5 (-102) | o38.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 | +3.5 (-110) | o38.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 | +4 (-110) | o38 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +180 | -215 | +3.5 (-105) | o37.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +175 | -200 | +3.5 (-110) | o38.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +169 | -205 | +3.5 (-108) | o38.5 (-107) |
Where the money is on Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miami Dolphins: 52% of bets, 7% of the money; Indianapolis Colts: 48% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; Miami Dolphins +3.5: 41% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 42% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 39.5: 58% of bets, 97% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts (3 wallets, $2,548). Largest: Hateful-Chord $894 on Indianapolis Colts, 0x842c… $856 on Indianapolis Colts, Official-Arrogance $798 on Indianapolis Colts. Spread: Miami Dolphins (1 wallet, $772) vs Indianapolis Colts (3 wallets, $932). Largest: Gracious-Junk $772 on Miami Dolphins, 0x842c… $320 on Indianapolis Colts, Hateful-Chord $313 on Indianapolis Colts. Total: under (3 wallets, $691). Largest: Official-Arrogance $520 on under, Positive-Console $136 on under, Tattered-Screamer $34 on under.
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts stats (this season)
| Stat | Miami Dolphins | Indianapolis Colts |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 1-7 | 2-7 |
| Points per game | 15.8 (31st of 32) | 20.4 (24th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0 (23rd of 32) | 27.7 (30th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | -0.06 (24th of 32) | -0.12 (29th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | 0.11 (32nd of 32) | 0.08 (26th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 5.1 (23rd of 32) | 4.5 (31st of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.8 (24th of 32) | 6.2 (31st of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 180.2 (30th of 32) | 192.2 (27th of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.5 (13th of 32) | 115.2 (15th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 41.6% (10th of 32) | 36.9% (22nd of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 47.6% (28th of 32) | 58.3% (17th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 9.4% (30th of 32) | 7.3% (22nd of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | -0.4 (24th of 32) | -1.2 (31st of 32) |
Trends for this game
Miami Dolphins
- Lost the last meeting by 14+: all teams 1196-1180 ATS (50.3%); MIA 50-33. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 14).
- Road underdogs: all teams 2402-2239 ATS (51.8%); MIA 82-86. No edge at -110.
- Teams under .300 after week 8: all teams 738-695 ATS (51.5%). No edge at -110.
Indianapolis Colts
- Home favorites: all teams 2239-2402 ATS (48.2%); IND 89-85. No edge at -110.
- Teams under .300 after week 8: all teams 738-695 ATS (51.5%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Malik Willis (Miami Dolphins): Questionable with a groin injury, he has completed 58.2% of his passes and taken 24 sacks this season.
- Ollie Gordon II (Miami Dolphins): With Wright out and Achane on IR, Gordon carries the backfield after 463 rushing yards at 4.3 per carry this season.
- Malik Washington (Miami Dolphins): Miami's most targeted receiver has 33 catches for 350 yards this season.
- Caleb Douglas (Miami Dolphins): He averages 59.2 receiving yards per game across five games this season, the team's best per-game rate.
- Daniel Jones (Indianapolis Colts): Kept at the deadline, Jones has 10 interceptions and 5.7 yards per attempt this season.
- Jonathan Taylor (Indianapolis Colts): The focal point of the offense, with 656 rushing yards and eight touchdowns this season.
- Tyler Warren (Indianapolis Colts): He has 38 catches and two receiving touchdowns in seven games this season.
- Keenan Allen (Indianapolis Colts): He leads the Colts with 40 catches for 351 yards this season.
Numbers that matter
| Miami EPA per dropback allowed | 0.26 (32nd) | The league's worst pass defense hands Jones his softest matchup of the season. |
|---|---|---|
| Miami sack rate allowed | 9.4% | Ranked 30th, a line that leans on Willis's mobility, which his groin injury threatens. |
| Colts EPA per designed run allowed | 0.03 (32nd) | The worst run defense by EPA gives Gordon and Willis a path. |
| Colts turnover margin per game | -1.2 | Ranked 31st, it explains why a home favorite is laying only a field goal or less. |
| Colts spread | -2.5 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the line, with the total steady at 40.5. |
Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts: quick answers
Who is favored in Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
Indianapolis Colts is favored by 3.5 points (Indianapolis Colts -3.5).
What is the over/under for Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
The total is 38 points.
When is Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Where is Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts played?
Lucas Oil Stadium.
Has the line moved for Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
Yes: Miami Dolphins opened +1.5 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 42.5 to 38.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miami Dolphins: 52% of bets, 7% of the money; Indianapolis Colts: 48% of bets, 93% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Indianapolis Colts -3.5: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; Miami Dolphins +3.5: 41% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 39.5: 42% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 39.5: 58% of bets, 97% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Miami Dolphins vs Indianapolis Colts?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts (3 wallets, $2,548). Largest: Hateful-Chord $894 on Indianapolis Colts, 0x842c… $856 on Indianapolis Colts, Official-Arrogance $798 on Indianapolis Colts. Spread: Miami Dolphins (1 wallet, $772) vs Indianapolis Colts (3 wallets, $932). Largest: Gracious-Junk $772 on Miami Dolphins, 0x842c… $320 on Indianapolis Colts, Hateful-Chord $313 on Indianapolis Colts. Total: under (3 wallets, $691). Largest: Official-Arrogance $520 on under, Positive-Console $136 on under, Tattered-Screamer $34 on under. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.