Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers prediction: Vikings drag a broken quarterback room into Lambeau Field
Minnesota owns the league's stingiest defense, but after Carson Wentz's 81-yard Monday night, the question is whether anyone can move the ball against Jordan Love's Packers.
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 42 |
Green Bay Packers win 61% of the simulated games, Minnesota Vikings 38%. Median score: Minnesota Vikings 19, Green Bay Packers 23. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect a low-scoring grind: Green Bay throws, Minnesota's top-ranked defense bends little, and the Vikings' offense struggles to finish drives with Wentz or a backup.
- Jordan Love and Christian Watson against a Vikings pass defense that ranks 1st in EPA per dropback allowed and 1st in sack rate.
- Packers -4.5 with a 41.25 total, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Vikings games have gone under 1-7 this season.
Minnesota's quarterback problem
The Vikings are 6-2 and losing their grip on an offense that was never strong. On Monday night against Buffalo, Carson Wentz went 8-of-25 for 81 yards with two interceptions, both in the third quarter, and limped off to boos while Max Brosmer finished the game. "This one felt pretty terrible," Wentz said afterward.
Kyler Murray is week-to-week with a Grade 2 hamstring strain and was listed out as of Nov. 9. With Week 10 practice reports not yet out, Minnesota hasn't said who starts at Lambeau or how Wentz came out of that limp. Either way, the numbers behind the position are grim. Wentz has completed 48.4% of his passes this season at 5.6 yards per attempt.
The whole offense ranks 31st in EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap moved a team toward points). It converts 33.3% of third downs, 30th in the league, and went 0-for-7 on third down against the Bills. It also allows sacks on 8.7% of dropbacks, 26th. Jauan Jennings (calf) was inactive Monday, thinning the receiver group further.
Love against the best pass defense
Green Bay's offense runs through the air. The Packers throw for 290.9 yards per game, 2nd in the league, and Love has 19 touchdowns against 6 interceptions. Christian Watson has turned into the deep threat, with 879 yards and 7 touchdowns, while Matthew Golden draws the volume with 92 targets.
This is the one defense built to stop that. Minnesota ranks 1st in EPA per dropback allowed and 1st in defensive sack rate (sacks per opponent dropback) at 10.7%. Love has been well protected, with a 4.7% sack rate allowed that ranks 9th. But tackle Travis Glover is out, and guard Sean Rhyan missed the Patriots game with an ankle sprain, so his status for Sunday is unsettled.
The Vikings also tighten near the goal line. Opponents score touchdowns on just 26.3% of red-zone trips, best in the league. Green Bay will move the ball. Turning yards into sevens is the harder part.
No run game, fewer backs
The Packers can't lean on the ground to protect a lead. They average 68.2 rushing yards per game, last in the league, and rank 31st in EPA per designed run. Now Josh Jacobs is out after finger surgery, with an estimated return of Nov. 25. MarShawn Lloyd (knee) missed the New England game and his status is unsettled, which leaves Kaleb Johnson, at 4.1 yards per carry, as the likeliest lead back. Chris Brooks had his window to return from injured reserve opened and could be activated.
Green Bay's defense supplies the cushion instead. The Packers lead the league with 2.1 takeaways per game, and they will face a quarterback who just threw two picks in one half. Micah Parsons remains out after ACL surgery, and linebacker Zaire Franklin is out with a shin fracture, so the pass rush that greets Minnesota's shaky protection will be thinner than usual.
Where the market sits
Green Bay is a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 41.25, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the line on Nov. 10. That low total fits both teams' history: Vikings games are 1-7 to the under, and Packers games are 3-6.
The Packers have been the better bet, going 5-3-1 against the spread to Minnesota's 4-4. They also get a full week of rest against a Vikings team coming off a Monday game with 6 days to recover, and this is Green Bay's last game before its Week 11 bye.
The division history cuts the other way. Minnesota won the Week 1 meeting 39-22 and beat Green Bay 16-3 in January. The Packers are 1-2 in the division this season.
What to watch
- Minnesota's starting quarterback: whether Murray's hamstring, Wentz's health or Brosmer settles the week.
- Third downs: a Vikings offense at 33.3% against a Packers defense that allows 41.7%.
- Green Bay's line: whether Rhyan returns to face the league's top sack rate.
- Red-zone finishing: Packers drives that stall against the 1st-ranked red-zone defense keep this close.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers line movement and odds
| Book | Vikings ML | Packers ML | Vikings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 | +3 (-105) | o42 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +128 | -157 | +3 (-108) | o42 (-113) |
| DraftKings | +136 | -162 | +3 (-108) | o42.5 (-105) |
| ESPN BET | +140 | -165 | +3 (-105) | o42.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +140 | -170 | +3 (-105) | o42.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +138 | -164 | +3 (-110) | o42.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +140 | -170 | +3 (-105) | o41.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +139 | -164 | +3 (-104) | o42 (-112) |
Where the money is on Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Vikings: 49% of bets, 67% of the money; Green Bay Packers: 51% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Green Bay Packers -3.5: 55% of bets, 28% of the money; Minnesota Vikings +3.5: 45% of bets, 72% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 41.5: 60% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 41.5: 41% of bets, 4% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings (3 wallets, $663) vs Green Bay Packers (1 wallet, $610). Largest: Positive-Console $610 on Green Bay Packers, Hateful-Chord $328 on Minnesota Vikings, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $185 on Minnesota Vikings. Spread: Minnesota Vikings (6 wallets, $8,304) vs Green Bay Packers (3 wallets, $3,141). Largest: Hateful-Chord $3,328 on Minnesota Vikings, SDTrading $2,826 on Green Bay Packers, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $2,556 on Minnesota Vikings. Total: over (1 wallet, $2,928) vs under (1 wallet, $294). Largest: Hateful-Chord $2,928 on over, 0x842c… $294 on under.
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers stats (this season)
| Stat | Minnesota Vikings | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 6-3 |
| Points per game | 18.2 (27th of 32) | 24.0 (12th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 14.5 (1st of 32) | 21.2 (11th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | -0.15 (31st of 32) | 0.03 (13th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | -0.15 (2nd of 32) | -0.08 (7th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 4.8 (28th of 32) | 5.7 (10th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.7 (2nd of 32) | 5.0 (5th of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 179.6 (31st of 32) | 290.9 (2nd of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 106.0 (19th of 32) | 68.2 (32nd of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 33.3% (30th of 32) | 37.8% (18th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 52.9% (21st of 32) | 55.9% (19th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 8.7% (26th of 32) | 4.7% (9th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | 0.5 (6th of 32) | 1.0 (1st of 32) |
Trends for this game
Minnesota Vikings
- Division rematches: all teams 1356-1356 ATS (50.0%); MIN 39-45. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Division underdogs: all teams 1405-1288 ATS (52.2%); MIN 40-35. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); MIN 31-24. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4).
- Three straight ATS losses: all teams 651-613 ATS (51.5%); MIN 13-21. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 8, betting against).
- Road underdogs: all teams 2402-2239 ATS (51.8%); MIN 67-73. No edge at -110.
Green Bay Packers
- Home favorites: all teams 2239-2402 ATS (48.2%); GB 109-86. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 6).
- Division rematches: all teams 1356-1356 ATS (50.0%); GB 48-38. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4).
- Lost the last meeting by 14+: all teams 1196-1180 ATS (50.3%); GB 31-21. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 7).
- Home favorites of 3 or less: all teams 655-725 ATS (47.5%); GB 16-14. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); GB 55-52. No edge at -110.
Key players
- Carson Wentz (Minnesota Vikings): Has completed 48.4% of his passes for 357 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions across 3 games this season.
- Justin Jefferson (Minnesota Vikings): Has 393 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns in 7 games this season, held down by the quarterback carousel.
- Aaron Jones (Minnesota Vikings): Carries the ground game with 474 yards on 4.1 yards per carry this season.
- T.J. Hockenson (Minnesota Vikings): A reliable short target with 35 catches on 44 targets this season.
- Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers): Has thrown for 2,618 yards with 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions this season.
- Christian Watson (Green Bay Packers): Leads Green Bay with 879 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns this season.
- Matthew Golden (Green Bay Packers): The volume receiver, with 92 targets and 783 yards this season.
- Tucker Kraft (Green Bay Packers): Has 36 catches for 351 yards this season as the intermediate option.
Numbers that matter
| Vikings defensive sack rate | 10.7% | Best in the league, and it gets a Packers line missing Glover and possibly Rhyan. |
|---|---|---|
| Vikings offensive EPA per play | -0.15 | Ranks 31st, before Murray's hamstring forced Wentz into the lineup. |
| Packers rushing yards per game | 68.2 | Last in the league, and Jacobs is out after finger surgery. |
| Vikings over/under record | 1-7 | Minnesota games have gone under in all but one with a line this season. |
| Total | 41.25 | Unchanged since our feed first recorded the game. |
Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers: quick answers
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
Green Bay Packers is favored by 3 points (Green Bay Packers -3).
What is the over/under for Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
The total is 42 points.
When is Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Where is Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers played?
Lambeau Field.
Has the line moved for Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
Yes: Minnesota Vikings opened +2.5 and is now +3, and the total moved from 41.5 to 42.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Minnesota Vikings: 49% of bets, 67% of the money; Green Bay Packers: 51% of bets, 33% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Green Bay Packers -3.5: 55% of bets, 28% of the money; Minnesota Vikings +3.5: 45% of bets, 72% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 41.5: 60% of bets, 96% of the money; Under 41.5: 41% of bets, 4% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Minnesota Vikings (3 wallets, $663) vs Green Bay Packers (1 wallet, $610). Largest: Positive-Console $610 on Green Bay Packers, Hateful-Chord $328 on Minnesota Vikings, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $185 on Minnesota Vikings. Spread: Minnesota Vikings (6 wallets, $8,304) vs Green Bay Packers (3 wallets, $3,141). Largest: Hateful-Chord $3,328 on Minnesota Vikings, SDTrading $2,826 on Green Bay Packers, Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $2,556 on Minnesota Vikings. Total: over (1 wallet, $2,928) vs under (1 wallet, $294). Largest: Hateful-Chord $2,928 on over, 0x842c… $294 on under. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.