Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals prediction: Burrow's air show runs into Pittsburgh's rush in a first-place fight
The NFL's top passing offense hosts a Steelers defense that lives on sacks, with the AFC North lead at stake and a rested Pittsburgh team waiting.
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 49.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals win 63% of the simulated games, Pittsburgh Steelers 37%. Median score: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Cincinnati Bengals 27. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Cincinnati moves the ball through the air while Pittsburgh tries to run, shorten the game and win with its pass rush and red-zone defense.
- Burrow's protection, 7th in sack rate allowed, against a Steelers rush that ranks 4th in sacks per dropback.
- Bengals are favored by 3.5 with a 48.5 total, both unchanged since our feed first saw the game; Pittsburgh is 6-2 against the spread.
Burrow against a rush that gets home
Both teams are 6-2 and tied atop the AFC North, and Sunday night decides who sits alone at the top. The question that settles it is simple: can Pittsburgh get Joe Burrow on the ground before the ball leaves his hand?
Cincinnati throws for 298.2 yards per game, 1st in the league. Its EPA per dropback (expected points added, how much each pass play moved the offense toward points) sits 3rd at 0.26. Burrow has completed 74.0% of his throws with 23 touchdowns. Ja'Marr Chase opened the Madrid win over Atlanta with a 47-yard touchdown, and the Bengals have won four straight.
Pittsburgh's answer is pressure. The Steelers sack opponents on 8.2% of dropbacks, 4th in the NFL. Cincinnati's line has held up, allowing a 4.7% sack rate, 7th. If that protection holds, the Steelers' coverage is exposed: they allow 242.0 passing yards per game, 22nd. Cornerbacks Doneiko Slaughter and Brandin Echols (both hamstring) were listed out as of Nov. 3, with no practice report since, so their status is unsettled. Guard Dylan Fairchild was hurt on the final play in Madrid, and Zac Taylor said the team will see how he feels.
Pittsburgh's best weapon stays grounded
The Steelers own the league's most efficient run game: 0.11 EPA per designed run, 1st of 32. Jaylen Warren has 704 rushing yards at 5.9 per carry. Cincinnati's run defense ranks 24th in EPA per designed run allowed and 25th in rushing yards allowed at 126.6 per game.
Yet Pittsburgh throws on early downs more than all but two teams, at 59.9%. That is a strange fit for an offense whose passing game ranks 26th in EPA per dropback. Aaron Rodgers, who has said he will retire after this season, has been sacked 23 times. The more this game runs through Warren, the more it looks like Pittsburgh's version of football.
Third downs and the red zone
Cincinnati converts 53.6% of its third downs, the best mark in the league, and its defense allows 47.5%, 30th. That points to long drives at both ends, which matters for the total.
Pittsburgh's counter is red-zone defense. Opponents score touchdowns on 37.5% of trips inside the 20, 3rd in the NFL. The Steelers' own offense finishes poorly there, at 50.0%, 25th. Expect field goals from Pittsburgh and a defense trying to force the Bengals into them too.
Rest, travel and a rematch
Pittsburgh arrives on 14 days of rest after its bye. Cincinnati is back from Madrid, where it practiced Thursday and Friday before the win. The Steelers took the first meeting 30-27 in Week 3, and Rodgers is 4-3 against Cincinnati in his career.
Mike McCarthy said Monday that wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and defensive lineman Derrick Harmon are "getting close" to returning from injured reserve, without saying whether either plays this week. Bengals safety Kyle Dugger (quad) was listed out as of Nov. 9, thinning a secondary that is still trying to replace Jessie Bates.
What the line says
The Bengals are favored by 3.5 with a 48.5 total, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded it Tuesday. Pittsburgh is 6-2 against the spread and covered its last four games listed in our results. Cincinnati's games have gone over 5 times in 8, while the Steelers sit 4-4 on totals.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals line movement and odds
| Book | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | Steelers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +155 | -190 | +3.5 (-110) | o49.5 (-108) |
| BetRivers | +155 | -195 | +3.5 (-109) | o49.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +150 | -180 | +3.5 (-110) | o49.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +165 | -195 | +3.5 (-110) | o49.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | +155 | -190 | +3.5 (-110) | o49 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 | +3.5 (-110) | o49.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +155 | -185 | +3.5 (-115) | o49 (-115) |
| Caesars | +160 | -193 | +3.5 (-112) | o49.5 (-105) |
Where the money is on Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers: 67% of bets, 51% of the money; Cincinnati Bengals: 33% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5: 50% of bets, 38% of the money; Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 56% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 49.5: 44% of bets, 5% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers (1 wallet, $9) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2 wallets, $406). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $285 on Cincinnati Bengals, 0x842c… $122 on Cincinnati Bengals, Rubbery-Policy $9 on Pittsburgh Steelers. Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (2 wallets, $172). Largest: Automatic-Kind $115 on Pittsburgh Steelers, Rubbery-Policy $56 on Pittsburgh Steelers. Total: over (1 wallet, $11). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $11 on over.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals stats (this season)
| Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 22.5 (17th of 32) | 30.0 (2nd of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0 (4th of 32) | 21.9 (14th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | -0.03 (19th of 32) | 0.14 (4th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | -0.07 (8th of 32) | 0.00 (14th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 5.4 (17th of 32) | 6.2 (4th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.0 (7th of 32) | 5.8 (25th of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 233.9 (18th of 32) | 298.2 (1st of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.9 (12th of 32) | 85.6 (30th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 37.9% (16th of 32) | 53.6% (1st of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 50.0% (25th of 32) | 68.8% (5th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 7.3% (21st of 32) | 4.7% (7th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | 0.5 (6th of 32) | 0.4 (10th of 32) |
Trends for this game
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Road underdogs: all teams 2402-2239 ATS (51.8%); PIT 68-46. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 17).
- Division rematches: all teams 1356-1356 ATS (50.0%); PIT 54-41. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 5).
- Division underdogs: all teams 1405-1288 ATS (52.2%); PIT 40-19. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 143).
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); PIT 49-40. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- Teams off a bye: all teams 512-502 ATS (50.5%); PIT 19-16. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
Cincinnati Bengals
- Home favorites: all teams 2239-2402 ATS (48.2%); CIN 58-65. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
- Division rematches: all teams 1356-1356 ATS (50.0%); CIN 47-40. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); CIN 37-25. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 8).
- On a 3+ game win streak: all teams 1031-1023 ATS (50.2%); CIN 22-22. No edge at -110.
- Sunday night favorites: all teams 220-222 ATS (49.8%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Aaron Rodgers (Pittsburgh Steelers): Has thrown 13 touchdowns this season but been sacked 23 times, the vulnerability Cincinnati's rush will target.
- Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers): Averaging 5.9 yards per carry with 704 rushing yards this season, the engine of the league's most efficient run game.
- DK Metcalf (Pittsburgh Steelers): Has 378 receiving yards on 64 targets this season, a modest return on heavy volume.
- Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals): Completing 74.0% of his passes this season with 23 touchdowns against 6 interceptions.
- Ja'Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals): Leads the team with 7 receiving touchdowns this season on 647 yards.
- Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals): Averaging 94.8 receiving yards per game this season, the Bengals' leading receiver by yardage.
Numbers that matter
| Steelers defensive sack rate | 8.2% | Ranks 4th in the league and is Pittsburgh's best path to slowing Burrow. |
|---|---|---|
| Steelers EPA per designed run | 0.11 | Best in the NFL, against a Bengals run defense that ranks 24th by the same measure. |
| Bengals 3rd-down conversion rate | 53.6% | Leads the league and keeps Cincinnati's drives alive against a stingy Steelers defense. |
| Steelers opponent red-zone TD rate | 37.5% | Ranks 3rd and can turn Bengals touchdowns into field goals. |
| Spread | -3.5 | Cincinnati's number at home, unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals: quick answers
Who is favored in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
Cincinnati Bengals is favored by 3.5 points (Cincinnati Bengals -3.5).
What is the over/under for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
The total is 49.5 points.
When is Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 8:20 PM ET.
Where is Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals played?
Paycor Stadium.
Has the line moved for Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
Yes: Pittsburgh Steelers opened +3 and is now +3.5, and the total moved from 47.5 to 49.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers: 67% of bets, 51% of the money; Cincinnati Bengals: 33% of bets, 49% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5: 50% of bets, 38% of the money; Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5: 50% of bets, 63% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 49.5: 56% of bets, 95% of the money; Under 49.5: 44% of bets, 5% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Pittsburgh Steelers (1 wallet, $9) vs Cincinnati Bengals (2 wallets, $406). Largest: Tattered-Screamer $285 on Cincinnati Bengals, 0x842c… $122 on Cincinnati Bengals, Rubbery-Policy $9 on Pittsburgh Steelers. Spread: Pittsburgh Steelers (2 wallets, $172). Largest: Automatic-Kind $115 on Pittsburgh Steelers, Rubbery-Policy $56 on Pittsburgh Steelers. Total: over (1 wallet, $11). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $11 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.