Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets prediction: Josh Allen's big-play Bills test a Jets team that can't finish drives
Buffalo hits explosive plays more often than anyone, and the Jets have struggled to turn drives into touchdowns, which leaves New York little margin in a 7.5-point spot.
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -8 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 51 |
New York Jets win 23% of the simulated games, Buffalo Bills 76%. Median score: Buffalo Bills 30, New York Jets 21. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Buffalo's run game and big plays should build a lead. The Jets need red-zone touchdowns, their weakest area, to stay inside the number.
- Watch Buffalo's patched left side of the line, with Dawkins and Anderson out Monday, against a Jets pass rush ranked 11th in sack rate.
- Bills are 7.5-point favorites, down from 7.75 when our feed first saw the game; Buffalo is 6-2 against the spread.
Buffalo's big plays
The Bills are 7-1, matching their best eight-game start since 1993, and the Jets are 2-7 with their coach's seat getting warmer. The gap between them shows up fastest in how Buffalo scores.
The Bills average 32.0 points per game, most in the league. No offense creates big plays more often: their explosive-play rate (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) is 12.4%, 1st of 32. Josh Allen is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt and has run for 9 touchdowns, so the threat comes from his legs as much as his arm.
The Jets' pass defense looks sturdy by yardage, allowing 212.1 passing yards per game, 5th in the league. That number hides the real problem. Per dropback, New York allows 0.16 EPA (expected points added: how much each snap moved the offense toward points), which ranks 26th. Its success rate allowed, the share of snaps that keep an offense on schedule, is 46.7%, 28th. Opponents don't need many throws to move the ball on this defense, and Buffalo rarely needs many throws to score.
A patched line in the trenches
Buffalo's biggest question is up front. Left tackle Dion Dawkins (ribs) and left guard Alec Anderson (ankle) were inactive for Monday's 23-6 win at Minnesota. Both are listed out, with an estimated return this week, and the practice reports that begin Wednesday will say more. Their status for Sunday is unsettled.
That matters against a Jets defense that gets home. New York's defensive sack rate (sacks per opponent dropback) is 7.1%, 11th, while Buffalo's line allows sacks on 6.2% of dropbacks, 18th. Allen has been sacked 17 times. Edge rusher Joseph Ossai (ankle) and linebacker Trevin Wallace (groin) missed the Kansas City game, and the Jets haven't said whether either plays Sunday.
The Bills may simply lean on the ground. They throw on just 50.0% of early downs, 27th, and run for 146.6 yards per game, 2nd. James Cook carries most of that load at 101.8 rushing yards per game. The Jets give up 128.0 rushing yards per game, 26th, yet rank 8th in EPA allowed per designed run. They bend on volume but haven't been gashed snap to snap, which makes Cook's early carries a useful read on how the afternoon will go.
The Jets' finishing problem
New York's offense moves the ball reasonably well and then stalls. Only 40.7% of Jets red-zone trips end in touchdowns, 31st of 32, and they convert 35.4% on third down, 26th. Against a team averaging 32 points, field goals won't keep pace.
Protection compounds it. The Jets allow sacks on 9.0% of dropbacks, 28th, and Geno Smith has gone down 28 times. Buffalo's pass rush is middling at 21st in sack rate, so this is the Jets' best chance to keep Smith upright. Smith showed visible frustration on the sideline during the 35-12 loss to Kansas City.
The receiving corps is thin. Garrett Wilson missed that game in the concussion protocol, and as of Tuesday he hadn't been reported as cleared. Omar Cooper Jr. has averaged 76.5 receiving yards across his four games, and Buffalo allows 252.8 passing yards per game, 27th, so the targets will be there for whoever plays. Breece Hall practiced fully on Nov. 7 after his quad injury and is expected to play alongside Braelon Allen, who is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.
One point in New York's favor: it protects the ball, with 0.8 giveaways per game, 7th. Buffalo's defense takes it away at 1.5 per game, 5th, and linebackers Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams each intercepted a pass Monday.
Market and setting
Buffalo is a 7.5-point favorite, a tick down from 7.75 when our feed first logged the game, and the total has held at 50.5. The Bills are 6-2 against the spread and 4-0 on the road. Their last two games went under after the defense allowed 10 and 6 points.
The Jets haven't won since beating Cleveland on Oct. 11, and the last-meeting history offers little comfort. Buffalo has won every game in the series since 2023, including a 35-8 rout on Jan. 4. Kicker Tyler Bass brings a franchise-record streak of 25 straight field goals.
MetLife's kickoff forecast calls for 47 degrees with wind around 10 mph and no precipitation, conditions that shouldn't limit either passing game. The Bills arrive on six days of rest after a Monday night game in Minnesota, against a Jets team with a full week.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets line movement and odds
| Book | Bills ML | Jets ML | Bills spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -450 | +350 | -8 (-108) | o51 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -455 | +350 | -8 (-110) | o51 (-107) |
| DraftKings | -440 | +340 | -8.5 (-108) | o50.5 (-118) |
| ESPN BET | -450 | +340 | -7.5 (-110) | o51.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | -450 | +340 | -8 (-110) | o51 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -460 | +360 | -7.5 (-115) | o50.5 (-120) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -475 | +350 | -8 (-115) | o51 (-110) |
| Caesars | -420 | +330 | -7.5 (-115) | o51 (-106) |
Where the money is on Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bills: 78% of bets, 94% of the money; New York Jets: 22% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Buffalo Bills -7.5: 88% of bets, 90% of the money; New York Jets +7.5: 12% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 55% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 50.5: 45% of bets, 87% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (1 wallet, $12) vs New York Jets (6 wallets, $5,302). Largest: Automatic-Kind $3,817 on New York Jets, Hateful-Chord $661 on New York Jets, 0x842c… $645 on New York Jets. Spread: Buffalo Bills (1 wallet, $138) vs New York Jets (2 wallets, $7,388). Largest: Automatic-Kind $7,385 on New York Jets, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $138 on Buffalo Bills, Spry-Probe $3 on New York Jets. Total: over (3 wallets, $464). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $220 on over, Hateful-Chord $134 on over, 0x842c… $110 on over.
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets stats (this season)
| Stat | Buffalo Bills | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 7-1 | 2-7 |
| Points per game | 32.0 (1st of 32) | 20.2 (25th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 23.4 (16th of 32) | 24.8 (20th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | 0.15 (3rd of 32) | 0.00 (15th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | 0.00 (16th of 32) | 0.04 (22nd of 32) |
| Yards per play | 6.2 (3rd of 32) | 5.4 (18th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.3 (12th of 32) | 5.2 (10th of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 253.4 (12th of 32) | 230.9 (21st of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.6 (2nd of 32) | 105.2 (20th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 43.2% (8th of 32) | 35.4% (26th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 66.7% (7th of 32) | 40.7% (31st of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 6.2% (18th of 32) | 9.0% (28th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | 0.0 (17th of 32) | 0.2 (14th of 32) |
Trends for this game
Buffalo Bills
- Road favorites: all teams 1212-1228 ATS (49.7%); BUF 36-30. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- On a 3+ game win streak: all teams 1031-1023 ATS (50.2%); BUF 25-35. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 6, betting against).
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); BUF 43-45. No edge at -110.
New York Jets
- Home underdogs: all teams 1228-1212 ATS (50.3%); NYJ 56-50. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2).
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); NYJ 41-53. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 5, betting against).
- Underdogs of 7+: all teams 1130-1044 ATS (52.0%); NYJ 43-54. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4, betting against).
- Three straight ATS losses: all teams 651-613 ATS (51.5%); NYJ 25-21. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3).
- Division underdogs: all teams 1405-1288 ATS (52.2%); NYJ 53-56. No edge at -110.
Key players
- Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills): Allen is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt this season and has added 9 rushing touchdowns.
- James Cook (Buffalo Bills): Cook has 814 rushing yards this season, 101.8 per game, driving the league's 2nd-ranked ground attack.
- Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills): Kincaid has caught 30 of 38 targets for 429 yards this season.
- Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills): Shakir leads Buffalo with 42 targets this season, turning them into 412 yards.
- Geno Smith (New York Jets): Smith has 12 touchdowns against 3 interceptions this season but has been sacked 28 times.
- Omar Cooper Jr. (New York Jets): Cooper is averaging 76.5 receiving yards across four games this season, the top rate on the team.
- Braelon Allen (New York Jets): Allen has 598 rushing yards at 5.0 per carry this season.
- Breece Hall (New York Jets): Hall has played four games this season, averaging 3.4 yards per carry with 13 catches.
Numbers that matter
| Bills explosive-play rate | 12.4% | Best in the league, and the Jets allow a 46.7% success rate, 28th. |
|---|---|---|
| Jets red-zone TD rate | 40.7% | Ranks 31st, a major problem against an offense scoring 32.0 points per game. |
| Jets sack rate allowed | 9.0% | Ranks 28th; Smith has been sacked 28 times. |
| Jets defensive sack rate | 7.1% | Ranks 11th, a threat to a Bills line that was missing two left-side starters Monday. |
| Spread | -7.5 | Buffalo's number has ticked down from 7.75 since our feed first saw the game. |
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets: quick answers
Who is favored in Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
Buffalo Bills is favored by 8 points (Buffalo Bills -8).
What is the over/under for Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
The total is 51 points.
When is Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Where is Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets played?
MetLife Stadium.
Has the line moved for Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
Yes: Buffalo Bills opened -7.5 and is now -8, and the total moved from 50.5 to 51 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Buffalo Bills: 78% of bets, 94% of the money; New York Jets: 22% of bets, 6% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Buffalo Bills -7.5: 88% of bets, 90% of the money; New York Jets +7.5: 12% of bets, 11% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 55% of bets, 13% of the money; Under 50.5: 45% of bets, 87% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Buffalo Bills (1 wallet, $12) vs New York Jets (6 wallets, $5,302). Largest: Automatic-Kind $3,817 on New York Jets, Hateful-Chord $661 on New York Jets, 0x842c… $645 on New York Jets. Spread: Buffalo Bills (1 wallet, $138) vs New York Jets (2 wallets, $7,388). Largest: Automatic-Kind $7,385 on New York Jets, Medium-Electrocardiogram-Compassion $138 on Buffalo Bills, Spry-Probe $3 on New York Jets. Total: over (3 wallets, $464). Largest: Boiling-Sprat-Dwell $220 on over, Hateful-Chord $134 on over, 0x842c… $110 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.