New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction: Drake Maye draws Detroit's last-ranked pass defense, and his turnover habit
The Lions give up more passing yards than anyone, but New England's giveaways could hand back everything Maye's arm gains in Munich.
| Spread | Detroit Lions -3 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 51 |
Detroit Lions win 60% of the simulated games, New England Patriots 39%. Median score: New England Patriots 24, Detroit Lions 27. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Expect points: Detroit's efficient offense should move the ball, and New England's chances hinge on Maye hitting big throws without giving the ball away.
- Maye against a Lions secondary allowing 283.1 passing yards per game, last in the league, and missing Kerby Joseph and D.J. Reed.
- Detroit moved from -2.5 to -3 with the total holding at 51; Patriots games have gone over in six of nine.
An open window for Maye
New England flies to Munich off a 45-27 home loss to Green Bay that left Mike Vrabel questioning his team's effort, a game in which the Patriots scored just 27. The 5-4 Patriots are clinging to an AFC wild-card spot, and the opponent offers the cleanest path back: no defense in football gives up more through the air than Detroit.
The Lions allow 283.1 passing yards per game, 32nd of 32, and rank 27th in EPA per dropback allowed (expected points added: how much each snap moves an offense toward points). Big plays come easily too. Detroit ranks 29th in explosive plays allowed, the share of runs of 10+ yards and passes of 20+ that opponents produce.
That suits Maye. He is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with 18 touchdown passes, and New England ranks 5th in yards per play. The Lions' secondary is also thin: safety Kerby Joseph and cornerback D.J. Reed were both listed out as of Nov. 9, and linebacker Jack Campbell is on injured reserve with a neck injury.
The giveaway problem
The catch is the ball itself. New England gives it away 2.1 times per game, 31st in the league, and Maye has thrown 11 interceptions. The Patriots' turnover margin of -1.2 per game also ranks 31st.
Detroit sits at the other end. The Lions give it away 0.6 times per game, 2nd in the league, and Jared Goff has thrown just 2 interceptions. Neither defense takes the ball away much, so the question is whether New England beats itself. A Patriots offense that is good enough to win this game has a habit of handing over extra possessions to a team that rarely returns the favor.
Detroit's offense against a soft back end
The Lions score 27.8 points per game, 5th in the league, and rank 4th in success rate (the share of snaps that keep an offense on schedule). Jahmyr Gibbs carries the ground game with 847 rushing yards and 9 touchdowns, including the 4th-and-1 score that decided last week's 19-9 win at Miami.
The run may be the harder route here. New England allows only 96.7 rushing yards per game, 9th in the league. The softer target is the Patriots' pass defense, which ranks 26th in passing yards allowed. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 657 receiving yards, and New England's cornerback room is shaky: Charles Woods was listed out as of Nov. 9, and Carlton Davis III was questionable with a knee injury as of Nov. 8.
The counterweight is pressure. New England's defense sacks quarterbacks on 7.8% of dropbacks, 5th in the league, and Goff was sacked three times in the first half against Miami. Detroit is also without center Cade Mays (ankle).
Patriots' list is getting long
A.J. Brown was listed out with a knee injury as of Nov. 9, and Vrabel said Brown "probably won't make it" to Germany. Other reports said no travel decision had been made, so his status is unsettled. Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with a knee tendon issue, TreVeyon Henderson is out with an illness, and center Ben Brown is doubtful. Offensive tackle Will Campbell was questionable with a knee injury as of Nov. 9.
That leaves Maye leaning on DeMario Douglas, Hunter Henry and Romeo Doubs, with the backfield possibly down to its third option. Neither team has released an official Week 10 injury report yet.
Munich and the market
This is New England's first regular-season game in Munich and its fifth outside the United States. The Patriots are flying a day early, and their bye follows in Week 11. Detroit is the designated home team and arrives on a four-game winning streak.
The spread has moved from Lions -2.5 to -3 since our feed first saw it, and the total has held at 51. The trends split. Every one of New England's last five games went over, while Detroit's last three went under. The Patriots have failed to cover four straight games and are 3-5-1 against the spread this season.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions line movement and odds
| Book | Patriots ML | Lions ML | Patriots spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +130 | -155 | +3 (-118) | o51 (-108) |
| BetRivers | +130 | -162 | +2.5 (-103) | o50.5 (-120) |
| DraftKings | +124 | -148 | +2.5 (+100) | o51.5 (+100) |
| ESPN BET | +130 | -150 | +3 (-115) | o51.5 (+100) |
| Fanatics | +130 | -155 | +3 (-115) | o51 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 | +2.5 (+100) | o50.5 (-115) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +130 | -155 | +3 (-115) | o51 (-110) |
| Caesars | +130 | -154 | +3 (-118) | o51 (-110) |
Where the money is on New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions
On the Kalshi moneyline: New England Patriots: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; Detroit Lions: 42% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Detroit Lions -2.5: 84% of bets, 88% of the money; New England Patriots +2.5: 16% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 74% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 50.5: 26% of bets, 3% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Detroit Lions (1 wallet, $1,526). Largest: Official-Arrogance $1,526 on Detroit Lions. Spread: New England Patriots (1 wallet, $53) vs Detroit Lions (2 wallets, $8,511). Largest: Watchful-Skating $8,432 on Detroit Lions, Official-Arrogance $79 on Detroit Lions, 0x842c… $53 on New England Patriots. Total: over (1 wallet, $653). Largest: Official-Arrogance $653 on over.
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions stats (this season)
| Stat | New England Patriots | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-4 | 6-2 |
| Points per game | 23.4 (14th of 32) | 27.8 (5th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 (15th of 32) | 23.6 (17th of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | 0.04 (11th of 32) | 0.10 (6th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | 0.04 (23rd of 32) | 0.08 (28th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 6.1 (5th of 32) | 5.9 (7th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.6 (22nd of 32) | 5.5 (21st of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 261.0 (9th of 32) | 268.1 (5th of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 119.9 (10th of 32) | 127.8 (8th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 40.4% (11th of 32) | 37.2% (21st of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 58.3% (17th of 32) | 61.8% (14th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 6.1% (17th of 32) | 6.4% (19th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | -1.2 (31st of 32) | 0.4 (10th of 32) |
Trends for this game
New England Patriots
- Off a 14+ point loss: all teams 1155-1149 ATS (50.1%); NE 26-13. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 30).
- Off an upset loss: all teams 1128-1082 ATS (51.0%); NE 41-29. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 7).
- Three straight ATS losses: all teams 651-613 ATS (51.5%). No edge at -110.
Detroit Lions
- Lost the last meeting by 14+: all teams 1196-1180 ATS (50.3%); DET 51-34. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 13).
- On a 3+ game win streak: all teams 1031-1023 ATS (50.2%); DET 17-20. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 2, betting against).
Key players
- Drake Maye (New England Patriots): Maye is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with 18 touchdowns this season, but his 11 interceptions are the swing factor.
- DeMario Douglas (New England Patriots): Douglas leads the Patriots' listed receivers with 434 yards and 4 touchdowns this season.
- Hunter Henry (New England Patriots): Henry has caught 32 of 37 targets this season, a reliable outlet if pressure comes.
- Rhamondre Stevenson (New England Patriots): Stevenson, questionable with a knee issue, has 399 rushing yards at 3.9 per carry this season.
- Jared Goff (Detroit Lions): Goff has thrown 15 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions this season, though he has been sacked 19 times.
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions): Gibbs has 847 rushing yards and 9 rushing touchdowns this season.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown (Detroit Lions): St. Brown has drawn 86 targets for 657 yards this season.
- Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions): Williams has 468 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season, the deep threat against a defense that allows explosives.
Numbers that matter
| Lions passing yards allowed | 283.1 | Detroit ranks 32nd of 32, the opening Maye needs. |
|---|---|---|
| Patriots giveaways per game | 2.1 | New England ranks 31st, the biggest threat to its own upset chances. |
| Patriots defensive sack rate | 7.8% | 5th in the league, and Detroit plays without center Cade Mays. |
| Current spread | -3 | Detroit moved from -2.5 since our feed first recorded the game. |
| Total | 51 | Unchanged since first seen, with Patriots games 6-3 to the over. |
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions: quick answers
Who is favored in New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
Detroit Lions is favored by 3 points (Detroit Lions -3).
What is the over/under for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
The total is 51 points.
When is New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 9:30 AM ET.
Where is New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions played?
FC Bayern Munich Stadium.
Has the line moved for New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
Yes: New England Patriots opened +1 and is now +3, and the total moved from 49.5 to 51 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
On the Kalshi moneyline: New England Patriots: 59% of bets, 60% of the money; Detroit Lions: 42% of bets, 40% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Detroit Lions -2.5: 84% of bets, 88% of the money; New England Patriots +2.5: 16% of bets, 12% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 50.5: 74% of bets, 97% of the money; Under 50.5: 26% of bets, 3% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Detroit Lions (1 wallet, $1,526). Largest: Official-Arrogance $1,526 on Detroit Lions. Spread: New England Patriots (1 wallet, $53) vs Detroit Lions (2 wallets, $8,511). Largest: Watchful-Skating $8,432 on Detroit Lions, Official-Arrogance $79 on Detroit Lions, 0x842c… $53 on New England Patriots. Total: over (1 wallet, $653). Largest: Official-Arrogance $653 on over. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.