Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans prediction: Trevor Lawrence gets a crack at Tennessee's short-handed secondary
The Jaguars own the league's second-best dropback offense, and the Titans arrive off their bye with their pass defense near the bottom and cornerbacks on the injury report.
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 46.5 |
Tennessee Titans win 18% of the simulated games, Jacksonville Jaguars 82%. Median score: Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Tennessee Titans 17. Watch the most typical game, play by play.
- Jacksonville builds a lead through the air, then leans on a defense that rarely gives up red-zone touchdowns while the Titans chase.
- Lawrence and Parker Washington against a Titans pass defense ranked 29th in EPA per dropback allowed, with CB Jaylon Jones listed out.
- Jaguars favored by 10.5, unchanged since our feed first saw it; Jacksonville covered as 10-point and 8.5-point favorites in its last two.
Lawrence against a secondary in triage
The AFC South leader visits the division's last-place team, and the gap between them shows up most clearly when Trevor Lawrence drops back. Jacksonville ranks 2nd of 32 in EPA per dropback at 0.27. EPA per play (expected points added) measures how much each snap moved a team toward points, and few offenses gain more per pass than this one.
Lawrence is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. He has thrown 18 touchdowns against 4 interceptions. Parker Washington is the vertical piece, with 493 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns.
Tennessee has no answer so far. The Titans allow 0.17 EPA per dropback, 29th in the league, and give up 272.8 passing yards per game, 31st. Their explosive-play rate allowed (runs of 10+ yards, passes of 20+) sits at 9.8%, 27th.
The cornerback room is the worry. Jaylon Jones (knee) was listed out as of Nov. 3, though a later undated listing calls him questionable, so his status is unsettled. Marcus Harris (ankle) left the Week 8 game in Cincinnati and was listed questionable; no practice report has come out yet this week.
Ward without his top target
Cam Ward is coming off the best passing day of his career, 304 yards and two touchdowns in a 43-36 overtime loss at Cincinnati. The season line is flatter: 6.0 yards per attempt, with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
He may be without Carnell Tate, who leads the Titans with 413 receiving yards. Tate (shoulder) was listed out as of Nov. 3, and a later undated listing has him questionable. If he sits, more falls on Wan'Dale Robinson, who caught the go-ahead touchdown in Cincinnati before the Bengals rallied.
Jacksonville's pass defense ranks 3rd in EPA per dropback allowed, and it takes the ball away 1.8 times per game, 3rd in the league. Rayuan Lane III's 92-yard pick-six against Indianapolis is the kind of swing a turnover-prone offense can't absorb. Near the goal line, the Jaguars allow touchdowns on 40.9% of red-zone trips, 4th, while Tennessee converts 52.2% of its own, 24th.
The Jaguars also reshaped the back end at the deadline, acquiring safety Jessie Bates III from Atlanta. That matters with safety Cam'Ron Silmon-Craig out as a coach's decision and Eric Murray (elbow) on injured reserve.
A patched line, a slow clock
Tennessee's offensive line has protected well for most of the season, allowing sacks on 4.7% of dropbacks, 8th. The bodies are running out. Guards Jackson Slater and Fernando Carmona are on injured reserve, and Peter Skoronski (hamstring) and JC Latham (finger) were both questionable to return to the Cincinnati game on Nov. 1, with no newer update.
Jacksonville hasn't gotten home often, with a defensive sack rate of 5.5% that ranks 20th. That explains the trade for Jordan Davis from Philadelphia, who has 1.5 sacks this season. His bigger job is the run game, where Tony Pollard (595 yards, 4.5 per carry) carries the Titans. The Jaguars already allow 89.2 rushing yards per game, 5th.
Neither team hurries. Jacksonville runs 57.6 plays per game (28th) and Tennessee 56.1 (30th). Fewer snaps mean fewer chances for the Titans to climb out of an early hole. The kickoff forecast for Nashville is mild: about 51 degrees with wind near 4 mph and no rain expected.
What the 10.5 says
Jacksonville is favored by 10.5 with a total of 46.5, and neither number has moved since our feed first recorded the game Tuesday morning. Eleven books are quoting it.
The Jaguars are 5-3 against the spread, and their recent margins have been lopsided: 42-7 over Indianapolis, then 33-10 at Baltimore. The series has gone the same way. Jacksonville has won four straight against Tennessee, including 25-3 and 41-7 last season.
The case for the Titans is narrow but real. They have covered as big underdogs at Baltimore (11.5) and at Cincinnati (13.5) within the last six weeks. They also have 14 days of rest off the bye against Jacksonville's 10.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans line movement and odds
| Book | Jaguars ML | Titans ML | Jaguars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -550 | +425 | -10.5 (-112) | o46 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -625 | +430 | -10.5 (-112) | o46.5 (-113) |
| DraftKings | -535 | +400 | -10.5 (-112) | o46.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -700 | +450 | -10 (-115) | o46.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | -575 | +420 | -10.5 (-115) | o46 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -600 | +450 | -10.5 (-105) | o46.5 (-105) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -600 | +425 | -11 (-110) | o46.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -560 | +400 | -10.5 (-112) | o46.5 (-108) |
Where the money is on Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars: 70% of bets, 92% of the money; Tennessee Titans: 30% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5: 75% of bets, 59% of the money; Tennessee Titans +10.5: 25% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 40% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 46.5: 60% of bets, 98% of the money.
Proven Polymarket wallets. Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars (2 wallets, $24,320) vs Tennessee Titans (2 wallets, $40). Largest: Pertinent-Advantage-Speedboat $23,520 on Jacksonville Jaguars, 0x842c… $800 on Jacksonville Jaguars, Hateful-Chord $38 on Tennessee Titans. Spread: Tennessee Titans (1 wallet, $225). Largest: 0x842c… $225 on Tennessee Titans.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans stats (this season)
| Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 6-2 | 1-7 |
| Points per game | 28.6 (4th of 32) | 18.0 (28th of 32) |
| Points allowed per game | 15.1 (2nd of 32) | 24.9 (22nd of 32) |
| Offensive EPA per play | 0.15 (2nd of 32) | -0.10 (27th of 32) |
| Defensive EPA per play allowed | -0.13 (3rd of 32) | 0.07 (25th of 32) |
| Yards per play | 6.0 (6th of 32) | 4.9 (27th of 32) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.5 (19th of 32) | 5.9 (27th of 32) |
| Passing yards per game | 242.5 (15th of 32) | 185.4 (29th of 32) |
| Rushing yards per game | 117.1 (14th of 32) | 99.5 (24th of 32) |
| 3rd-down conversion % | 46.4% (3rd of 32) | 36.2% (24th of 32) |
| Red-zone TD % | 65.2% (10th of 32) | 52.2% (24th of 32) |
| Sack rate allowed | 5.2% (11th of 32) | 4.7% (8th of 32) |
| Turnover margin per game | 1.0 (1st of 32) | 0.1 (15th of 32) |
Trends for this game
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Off a 14+ point win: all teams 1221-1261 ATS (49.2%); JAX 31-37. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3, betting against).
- Road favorites: all teams 1212-1228 ATS (49.7%); JAX 25-30. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3, betting against).
Tennessee Titans
- Division underdogs: all teams 1405-1288 ATS (52.2%); TEN 35-45. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 4, betting against).
- Lost the last meeting by 14+: all teams 1196-1180 ATS (50.3%); TEN 37-45. Consistent with luck (by luck: 1 in 3, betting against).
- Home underdogs: all teams 1228-1212 ATS (50.3%); TEN 44-43. No edge at -110.
- Underdogs of 7+: all teams 1130-1044 ATS (52.0%); TEN 30-33. No edge at -110.
- Teams under .300 after week 8: all teams 738-695 ATS (51.5%). No edge at -110.
Key players
- Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars): Lawrence has thrown 18 touchdowns against 4 interceptions this season at 8.6 yards per attempt.
- Parker Washington (Jacksonville Jaguars): Washington leads the Jaguars with 493 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns this season.
- Bhayshul Tuten (Jacksonville Jaguars): Tuten has 521 rushing yards this season and adds 3 receiving touchdowns.
- Cam Ward (Tennessee Titans): Ward is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt this season, with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions.
- Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans): Pollard has carried the offense with 595 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns this season.
- Wan'Dale Robinson (Tennessee Titans): Robinson has 35 catches this season and could see more targets if Carnell Tate sits.
Numbers that matter
| Jaguars EPA per dropback | 0.27 | Ranks 2nd of 32, the engine of Jacksonville's league-best point margin. |
|---|---|---|
| Titans EPA per dropback allowed | 0.17 | Ranks 29th, and the cornerback injuries make it harder to fix this week. |
| Jaguars takeaways per game | 1.8 | Ranks 3rd, a threat to a Titans offense that has to throw to keep up. |
| Titans offensive plays per game | 56.1 | Ranks 30th, which leaves Tennessee few possessions to erase a deficit. |
| Point spread | -10.5 | Jacksonville's number has held steady since our feed first recorded it. |
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans: quick answers
Who is favored in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
Jacksonville Jaguars is favored by 10.5 points (Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5).
What is the over/under for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
The total is 46.5 points.
When is Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM ET.
Where is Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans played?
Nissan Stadium.
Has the line moved for Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
Yes: Jacksonville Jaguars opened -9.5 and is now -10.5, and the total moved from 44.5 to 46.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars: 70% of bets, 92% of the money; Tennessee Titans: 30% of bets, 8% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5: 75% of bets, 59% of the money; Tennessee Titans +10.5: 25% of bets, 42% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 46.5: 40% of bets, 2% of the money; Under 46.5: 60% of bets, 98% of the money.
What are proven bettors on in Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans?
Proven Polymarket wallets, graded on 180 days of settled bets: Moneyline: Jacksonville Jaguars (2 wallets, $24,320) vs Tennessee Titans (2 wallets, $40). Largest: Pertinent-Advantage-Speedboat $23,520 on Jacksonville Jaguars, 0x842c… $800 on Jacksonville Jaguars, Hateful-Chord $38 on Tennessee Titans. Spread: Tennessee Titans (1 wallet, $225). Largest: 0x842c… $225 on Tennessee Titans. A sharp side is a question, not a bet; copying proven wallets late lost money in our test.