UL Monroe vs Troy Trojans prediction: Troy can run on ULM, whoever lines up at quarterback

Troy's ground game, ULM's weakest spot

UL Monroe brings a 14-game losing streak into Troy. SP+ ranks the Warhawks 138th of 138, dead last in FBS. Troy is coming off a 33-6 loss at Louisiana and needs a reset, and the opponent suits that.

Troy wins by running. The Trojans average 204.7 rushing yards per game, 27th nationally. That's the healthy half of an offense whose passing EPA (expected points added per play) ranks 117th.

ULM can't stop the run. The Warhawks allow 229.7 rushing yards a game and rank 133rd in rushing EPA allowed. Line yards allowed, a measure of the push ball carriers get before the second level, sit 128th. Over the last three games, opponents stayed on schedule on 47.3% of snaps, barely better than the 48.9% for the season.

Jordan Lovett is the back to watch. He has averaged 7.7 yards per carry over his last three games, with a best day of 142 yards against Southern Miss. Our projection has Troy at 220 rushing yards. That fits a tested pattern: when favorites cover, their rushing goes over its line 33.9% of the time, against 25.3% if the two were unrelated.

The Crowder question

Will 'Goose' Crowder left the Louisiana game with a shoulder injury and is listed questionable. Gerad Parker said Crowder was not ruled out but his status is unclear. Troy hasn't named a starter.

Tucker Kilcrease came on at Louisiana and produced Troy's only touchdown, a 23-yard run in the third quarter. Crowder's legs matter to this offense. He has 244 rushing yards this season, and 145 of them came against Southern Miss.

The passing game is the worry either way. Crowder threw for 65 yards at Louisiana and completes 56.8% of his passes on the season. Whoever starts gets a soft landing, though: ULM ranks 135th in passing EPA allowed.

A ULM offense that can't finish

Louisiana Tech shut ULM out 24-0 last week, and Aidan Armenta threw two second-half interceptions. Armenta's arm has been the Warhawks' best weapon lately, at 8.0 yards per attempt over his last three games, but drives keep dying. ULM converts 29.6% of third downs, 133rd in FBS.

The run game offers little help. ULM's line yards rank 120th, and Austin Carlisle, the most efficient back at 5.8 yards per carry, got three carries against Louisiana Tech. Receiver Javon Campbell is listed doubtful.

This is also a team that lost 38-35 at home to FCS SE Louisiana as a 10-point favorite. Troy's defense is ordinary, but it doesn't need to be more than that here.

Hidden yards tilt to Troy

Field position should drift toward Troy. ULM's net punting average of 32.9 yards ranks 135th of 136, and it allows 27.8 yards per punt return, 134th. Troy nets 42.6 yards a punt, 32nd.

Troy gives some of that back. Louisiana scored early after a muffed Troy punt, the Trojans' field-goal kicking has gone 7/12, and their 75.3 penalty yards per game rank 125th. Those leaks are how a big favorite fails to cover.