Tennessee Volunteers vs South Carolina Gamecocks prediction: Tennessee's pass rush, not its quarterback, must carry it at South Carolina

The nation's best pass rush

No. 11 Tennessee is getting points from a 3-3 South Carolina team. The reason is a quarterback Josh Heupel still won't officially name, but the Vols' defense is the reason they can win anyway.

Tennessee averages 4.14 sacks per game, first in the country. Its havoc rate (the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) is 22.9%, third nationally. Against Auburn, Arkansas and Alabama, the Vols allowed 13.7 points per game.

That pressure lands on an offense built around Lanorris Sellers' legs. He has run for 411 yards this season. South Carolina allows 1.67 sacks per game, 59th, and it plays without OL Josiah Thompson. Center Carter Miller's status is unresolved, though Beamer said he expects him back.

Tyree Weathersby is the name to know. He has 6.5 sacks, and he got Alabama twice. Tennessee ranks fifth in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play), so Sellers may have to win outside the pocket.

MacIntyre's job: hand it off

Heupel declined to name a starter Monday for the third straight week, but George MacIntyre is expected to start. Faizon Brandon hasn't played since the second quarter against Auburn on Oct. 3, slowed by a right shoulder injury from the Texas game. MacIntyre led two second-half touchdown drives in the Alabama win, which Tennessee pulled off as an underdog.

The Vols ask little of the passing game. They rank 110th in passing yards per game and allow 2.57 sacks per game, 113th. The engine is DeSean Bishop, who has 517 rushing yards over the last three games. Tennessee ranks 10th in rushing EPA.

This is where the game tightens. South Carolina allows 2.48 line yards per carry (a measure of the push blockers get), 12th nationally. The Gamecocks stuff 23.2% of runs at or behind the line, 22nd. Tennessee is also without starting left guard Wendell Moe, lost for the season.

If MacIntyre has to throw, the window is wide. South Carolina ranks 119th in passing EPA allowed. Mike Matthews, who caught seven passes against Alabama, is the receiver who can make that pay.

Rested, and running short on time

South Carolina comes in with 14 days of rest; Tennessee has seven, with its own off week waiting after Saturday. The Gamecocks spent their last outing winning 38-19 at Florida as an underdog, ending an eight-game SEC losing streak. Sellers threw four touchdown passes and ran for another.

Shane Beamer sits on the hot-seat lists, and his defense hasn't helped. It allowed 34.3 points per game over its last three. Help arrives up front: DT Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy and EDGE Julian Walker are expected back, along with CB Judge Collier, and Travian Robertson is back full-time as defensive line coach. DB Quay'Sheed Scott is doubtful and EDGE Kobby Sakyi-Prah is out.

Tennessee's record also came against the tougher slate. Its FBS opponents average an SP+ of 6.3, against 4.1 for South Carolina's.

Where the hidden yards go

Two special-teams and finishing gaps could swing a close game. South Carolina averages 15.2 yards per punt return, 22nd nationally, and Tennessee's coverage allows 16.5, ranked 128th. A flipped field matters in a game where both offenses would rather run.

Inside the 40, Tennessee holds the edge. The Vols allow 2.37 points per scoring opportunity, seventh, while South Carolina's 4.2 ranks 122nd. Gamecock drives that stall near the goal line become field-goal tries, and they have made nine of 12.

The market has flipped

This line opened with Tennessee favored by 2.5 and now sits at South Carolina -2.5 across 28 books. The total is 50.5.

Our model makes South Carolina a 1-point favorite with a 53% chance to win, so the move went a little past our number. Tennessee has covered as an underdog against both Texas and Alabama, while South Carolina is 2-4 against the spread. The model's total of 50.8 essentially matches the market.