Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction: Oregon's backup quarterback gets the softer landing in Champaign
Both starters are out, but Oregon's replacement faces a defense that can't pressure anyone, while Illinois' replacement faces one of the best third-down units in the country.
| Spread | Oregon -9.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 49.5 |
- Oregon's defense should squeeze Illinois backup Michael Clayton II, while the Ducks' own fill-in works against a pass rush that barely exists.
- Watch Oregon's quarterback against an Illinois defense that ranks 124th in passing EPA allowed and 134th in sacks per game.
- Our model makes it Oregon by 10.2, a point past the market's 9, and its 50.0 total matches the line.
Two backups, one clean pocket
Neither team gets the quarterback it planned on. Dante Moore misses a third straight game after a Sept. 26 concussion, and Katin Houser is out after a hand procedure that is expected to cost him 4–6 weeks. The question Saturday is which replacement walks into the friendlier room, and it isn't close.
Dylan Raiola appears set to start for Oregon, though Dan Lanning hasn't officially named a starter and Brock Thomas remains in the competition. Raiola came off the bench against Nebraska and threw the winning 4-yard touchdown to Jamari Johnson with 28 seconds left.
Whoever starts will have time. Illinois averages 0.83 sacks per game, 134th of 138, and its havoc rate (the share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) ranks 128th. That matters because Oregon's line has been shaky, allowing havoc on 16.4% of plays. Behind that missing rush, Illinois ranks 124th in passing EPA allowed (expected points added per play) and 122nd on third down. The unit has been without coordinator Bobby Hauck since the program parted ways with him Sept. 27, and it hasn't improved: opponents posted a 51.9% success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) over the last three games.
The catch is the receiver room. Evan Stewart is out after missing the Nebraska game, and he was arrested Sunday and charged with DUII. Jeremiah McClellan is out with a foot injury. That leaves Dakorien Moore, with 347 receiving yards, and Johnson as the primary targets.
Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini: quick answers
Who is favored in Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
Oregon is favored by 9.5 points (Oregon -9.5).
What is the over/under for Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
The total is 49.5 points.
When is Oregon Ducks vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET.