Oklahoma Sooners vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction: Kamario Taylor's Status Looms Over Oklahoma's Suffocating Defense

The Quarterback Nobody Can Confirm

Mississippi State's season splits cleanly around one player. With Kamario Taylor at quarterback, the Bulldogs beat South Carolina and Missouri and scored 23 on Alabama. Without him at LSU, they lost 31-0.

Taylor has thrown 17 touchdown passes against four interceptions. He averages 9.4 yards per attempt, the downfield punch this offense is built around. His replacement at LSU, Puckett, threw for 121 yards with one interception and no touchdowns.

Taylor was listed questionable on Wednesday's availability report after missing the LSU game, and the school hasn't said what the injury is. Jeff Lebby wouldn't commit on Monday. "The injury report will continue to speak to that," he said, calling it day-to-day. The final report comes 90 minutes before kickoff, and that is the most important piece of news for this game.

Whoever starts faces a defense that rarely gives an inch. Oklahoma ranks 4th nationally in EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap moves the scoreboard). Opponents convert just 25.6% of third downs, 2nd in the country, and the Sooners allow 151.3 passing yards per game, 6th. Taylor can test that unit. Puckett, on his LSU evidence, probably can't.

Mateer's Giveaway Habit

Oklahoma's offense is already poor, and the turnovers make it worse. It doesn't. The Sooners commit 2.33 turnovers per game, dead last among 138 FBS teams.

John Mateer owns much of that. He has seven interceptions on the season, four of them in the last three games. Against Kentucky he threw three, the last a pick-six with under two minutes left that sealed a 21-13 home loss as a favorite. Offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle backed Mateer as the starter this week, and no injury has been reported.

The giveaways show up in field position. Oklahoma's opponents start drives at their own 32.0-yard line on average, 133rd nationally, which hands away free yards a punchless offense can't win back.

Mississippi State is poorly built to cash in. The Bulldogs force 0.83 takeaways per game, 116th. If Mateer simply plays clean, Oklahoma's defense should carry the day.

A Run Game Running Short of Linemen

Oklahoma can't run the ball, and its line just got thinner. The Sooners rank 138th in rushing EPA, last in the country. They average 2.57 line yards per carry (a measure of the push the offensive line gets on running plays), 133rd.

Left tackle Ryan Fodje and Eddy Pierre-Louis are both ruled out, and Michael Fasusi, out since Week 1 with a shoulder injury, is questionable. Lloyd Avant is the lead back with 267 yards at 4.5 per carry.

The relief valve is Mississippi State's front. The Bulldogs' stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) is 14.8%, 124th, and they allow 3.05 line yards per carry, 95th. Of all the matchups in this game, Oklahoma's ground game gets its kindest one here.

Both Lines Leak Sacks

Each offense allows 2.67 sacks per game, tied at 116th, and only one defense has the rush to exploit it. Oklahoma averages 3.0 sacks per game, 13th nationally, with a havoc rate (share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup) of 19.1%. Jake Kreul had 2.5 sacks against Kentucky alone.

Mississippi State's pass rush is respectable, but it is missing defensive linemen Trevion Williams and Diesel Moye, both out. Linebacker Jalen Smith is also out, with safety Isaac Smith and linebacker Zakari Tillman questionable.

The Bulldogs' recent form explains the urgency. Over their last three games, against Missouri, Alabama and LSU, they allowed 37.0 points per game. On the season they give up 264.8 passing yards per game, 127th, an opening for Isaiah Sategna, who has 21 catches over Oklahoma's last three games.

Where Our Number Lands

The market moved toward Oklahoma, which opened as a 2.5-point favorite and now sits at 4.5 with a total of 45.0. The move came as Taylor's status stayed uncertain.

Our model lands close: Oklahoma 24.5, Mississippi State 20.5, with the Bulldogs at 40.0% to win. That puts our number a shade friendlier to the home team than the market, but not by enough to matter. The total matches exactly.

There's a coaching subplot too. Lebby spent two years as Venables' offensive coordinator, so the Oklahoma staff knows his offense well in this first-ever meeting between the programs.