North Texas Mean Green vs Navy Midshipmen prediction: Tayven Jackson's Arm Takes Aim at Navy's Thin Secondary

Jackson Against Thin Coverage

North Texas arrives in Annapolis unbeaten in American play and throwing the ball as well as almost anyone in the country. Navy, 2-4 and playing its Homecoming game, has spent the season giving up big plays through the air. Navy's hope is that its option keeps Tayven Jackson standing on the sideline.

The Mean Green average 345.5 passing yards per game, 2nd in the FBS. They rank 9th in passing EPA (expected points added per play), so that volume produces points. Jackson completes 72.4% of his throws. Over his last three games he has averaged 10.8 yards per attempt, with 10 touchdown passes, including a career-high haul against Charlotte.

Navy's pass defense is the weakest unit on the field. It ranks 118th in passing EPA allowed and 128th in explosiveness allowed, which measures how damaging the successful plays against it are. It also rarely takes the ball away, ranking 133rd in takeaways. Justin Stevenson has become Jackson's red-zone answer, and Max Reese and Corri Milliner keep Navy from rolling coverage to one man.

Pressure won't bail Navy out either. The Midshipmen rank 112th in havoc rate (share of plays with a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup), and North Texas is 10th in sacks allowed per game. Clean pockets make for a long afternoon in the Navy secondary.

Navy's Line Sets the Terms

Navy's path runs through its front. The Midshipmen rush for 298.5 yards per game, 4th nationally, and rank 3rd in line yards per carry, a measure of the push the blockers get before a runner reaches the second level. Gutierrez is the engine, with 644 rushing yards on the season.

North Texas holds up better here than against the pass. It ranks 29th in line yards allowed, but its stuff rate (share of runs stopped at or behind the line) sits 74th, so it seldom blows plays up in the backfield. Davion Rhodes is the exception, with 3.0 sacks over the last three games. If Navy stays on schedule, it controls the clock and the number of possessions Jackson gets. If it falls behind, a passing game that rarely throws can't carry the drives.

Navy's Quarterback Question

Gutierrez was the primary quarterback in the 38-34 loss at UTSA, where he hit Jordan Collins for a school-record 92-yard touchdown before UTSA scored the winner late. Braxton Woodson also played, his first real action since an ankle injury, and Navy hasn't said who starts Saturday. Jake Norris is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and his availability is unclear.

North Texas gets 14 days of rest against Navy's 7. Neal Brown said he was hopeful Chase Canada would be back for this game. Brian Newberry praised Brown and called North Texas far better than he expected.

Third Downs and an Asterisk

Navy's defense has struggled to get off the field, allowing 44.6% on third down, 121st in the FBS. North Texas converts 48.8% of its own. Navy has also left points on the board, making 3 of 6 field goals.

The Mean Green's recent surge deserves a caveat. Two of their last three games came against FCS Houston Christian and a Charlotte team ranked 136th in SP+. In their one road test against a stronger opponent, they lost 35-49 at Texas State. Still, North Texas beat Navy 31-17 last season, one of only two losses in Navy's 10-2 year.

Where the Number Sits

North Texas is favored by 2.5, a line that hasn't moved since it opened, with the total at 63.5. Our model lands almost exactly there: Navy +2.4 and a 63.6 total, with Navy winning 44% of the time. The market and our numbers agree that this is close, with North Texas's passing game edging Navy's ground game.