LSU Tigers vs Auburn Tigers prediction: LSU's pass rush targets an Auburn line that keeps giving up sacks

A pocket that keeps collapsing

Auburn beat the No. 1 team in the country on a field goal as time expired last Saturday. Then on Monday it dismissed starting linebacker Xavier Atkins. Now it has to keep Byrum Brown upright against a defense built to bury quarterbacks.

That is the game. Auburn allows 3.83 sacks per game, 135th of 138 FBS teams. LSU produces 3.43 sacks per game, fourth nationally. LSU's havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, is 21.7%, also fourth. Auburn ranks 88th in havoc allowed, so this is not a line that limits the damage on the plays it loses.

PrinceWill Umanmielen is the piece that matters most. He has 8 sacks and 11.5 tackles for loss this season. He left the Mississippi State game and didn't return, and Kiffin offered no medical update Sunday. He was not on Wednesday's injury report, though, and his return is expected. Defensive lineman Malik Blocton also went down against Mississippi State and is also off the report.

Brown has to run it

Auburn's passing offense gives LSU little reason to worry. Auburn ranks 112th in passing EPA (expected points added per play), and LSU allows the fewest passing EPA in the country. Brown's season line is 8 touchdowns against 7 interceptions, and over his last three games he has averaged just 5.2 yards per attempt.

His legs have carried the offense instead. Brown ran for 279 yards in those three games, including 115 and a touchdown against Georgia. Auburn's ground game is the one unit with real standing, 31st in rushing EPA and 29th in line yards (rushing yards credited to the offensive line). But LSU allows 2.31 line yards per carry, seventh nationally. Auburn's success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, has been 37.1% over its last three games. That points to long third downs, which hands the advantage back to LSU's rush.

Leavitt's efficiency, LSU's giveaways

LSU's offense moves the chains rather than hitting home runs. Its 51.9% success rate ranks sixth, while its explosiveness ranks 94th. Sam Leavitt has been sharp lately: 77.9% completions with 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions over his last three games, capped by a 31-of-38, four-touchdown day against Mississippi State.

The weak spot is ball security. Leavitt has thrown 8 interceptions this season, and LSU ranks 106th in turnovers per game. Auburn ranks 16th in takeaways per game, and giveaways are how Auburn steals this game. LSU learned that at Kentucky, where it lost 34-35 as a 9-point favorite.

Auburn's defense is thinner without Atkins, who had 7.5 tackles for loss in five games. Elijah Melendez leads the unit with 52 tackles. Auburn already ranks 96th in stuff rate (runs stopped at or behind the line), so Dilin Jones should find room on early downs. Jackson Harris, who has 5 touchdown catches, hurt his ankle against Mississippi State but said he'd be good to go; Kiffin said "I think he'll be fine." Tight end Trey'Dez Green is off the injury report. On defense, LSU is without linebacker Whit Weeks and safety Dashawn Spears.

Field position and the price

LSU gives back some of its edge in the kicking game. Its net punting ranks 132nd of 136, which gives Auburn's offense, 114th in average starting field position, a shorter path than usual.

The market has moved toward LSU, from 6.5 at the open to 7.5, with the total at 51. Our model goes a little further, pricing LSU by 8.6 with a 29.8-21.2 score and a 29% chance that Auburn wins. Our total matches the market's 51. Auburn is 2-4 against the spread, and its only cover came at Georgia. If LSU covers, expect its ground game to share the credit: favorites who cover tend to clear their rushing lines too.