Louisiana Ragin Cajuns vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles prediction: Louisiana's ground game aims at Southern Miss's broken run defense

A highway on the ground

Louisiana can lock up bowl eligibility for a ninth straight season on Saturday. The Golden Eagles want to snap a five-game losing streak in front of a homecoming crowd. The way this game tilts is simple: Southern Miss cannot stop the run, and Louisiana is built to run.

The Cajuns average 199.4 rushing yards per game, 30th in the country. Last week against Troy they ran for 243 yards and three touchdowns. Winfield powers the quarterback-run spread, with 457 rushing yards and eight rushing scores this season. JJ Garner has become the hot hand behind him, averaging 7.3 yards per carry over the last three games.

Southern Miss allows 252.0 rushing yards per game, 137th of 138. The deeper numbers say it isn't a fluke. The Golden Eagles rank 128th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each run hurts them). They give up 3.24 line yards per carry, the credit a rushing offense's blockers earn, which ranks 120th. Their stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, sits 102nd.

Our projection has Louisiana running for 265 yards. That fits a pattern we've tested: when the favorite covers, its rushing total goes over far more often than chance would predict.

Lyddy has to carry it

Southern Miss starter Ethan Hampton is out again with a fractured hand, his fourth straight missed game, on a timeline that keeps him sidelined until late in the season. Running back Robert Briggs is done for the year with a torn hamstring. That leaves the offense on Landry Lyddy, a pocket passer with 1,032 yards and seven touchdowns this season.

His last outing drew criticism. Lyddy went 18 of 34 with two interceptions in the 23-13 loss to Arkansas State, and Blake Anderson pointed to the team's mistakes as the main problem. His best weapon is Mario Sanders II, who has four touchdown catches over the last three games.

Louisiana gives Lyddy reasons for hope and for worry. The Cajuns' pass rush barely exists, at 1.29 sacks per game, 118th nationally, so he should have time. But Louisiana forces 2.0 takeaways per game, eighth in FBS, and Southern Miss coughs it up 1.67 times per game, 113th. A Golden Eagles offense that converts just 32.9% on third down cannot afford to hand back possessions.

Kicks, punts and hidden yards

Southern Miss has made 2 of 6 field goals, a 33.3% rate that ranks 137th. Louisiana is 10/10. In a game where the underdog needs every drive to end in points, stalled possessions inside the 35 become a real problem for the Golden Eagles.

Louisiana's weak spot is the punt. Its net punting average of 34.5 ranks 130th of 136, which can hand Lyddy a short field. The Cajuns make up for it elsewhere: their offense starts drives at an average of the 31.6, 21st nationally.

What the record is worth

Louisiana's 5-2 mark comes against a soft slate. The average SP+ of its FBS opponents is -6.3, and its last two wins came over teams ranked 108th and 101st in SP+. It beat Arkansas State only 23-20 and lost 31-32 at Louisiana Tech.

The common opponent still favors the Cajuns. Louisiana handled Troy 33-6. Southern Miss lost to Troy 55-34. SP+ puts Louisiana 63rd and Southern Miss 128th, and the Golden Eagles' defense has allowed 34.0 points per game over its last three.

Southern Miss does own recent bragging rights, winning 22-10 in Lafayette last season.

Where the number sits

The market opened Louisiana -10 and hasn't moved across 27 books, with the total at 52.5. Louisiana is 5-1-1 against the spread this season. Southern Miss is 2-4.

Our model prices it at Louisiana by 11.3, about 1.3 points more than the market, and projects a 31.9 to 20.6 final. It gives Southern Miss a 24.0% chance to win outright. For the first half, our number is Louisiana -7.5 with a total of 27.0.