Kansas State Wildcats vs Arizona State Sun Devils prediction: Avery Johnson's health decides whether Kansas State can run over ASU

Everything runs through Johnson

Both teams sit at 1-2 in Big 12 play. One has a questionable quarterback, the other is handing the job to a new one, and the result could sort out which of them still has a say in the conference race.

Kansas State's offense rests on one idea: Avery Johnson runs, and nobody gets to him. The Wildcats rush for 239.8 yards per game, 7th of 138 FBS teams, and convert 59.3% of third downs, 2nd nationally. They allow 0.5 sacks per game, 5th. Johnson has 462 rushing yards this season. He ran for 132 against Kansas, but he got hurt on a fall at the end of a 59-yard run.

He is now questionable with an injury the school hasn't disclosed. It has been reported as a neck or shoulder problem, and K-State has not confirmed that. Friday's availability report decides it. If he can't go, Blake Barnett or Jacob Knuth could start, and Barnett's own status is unclear.

A healthy Johnson gets a soft front to run at. Arizona State ranks 116th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. It ranks 101st in line yards allowed per carry, a measure of how much push blockers get. The backs can do damage too: Joe Jackson ran for 159 yards against Kansas. Take away the quarterback's legs, though, and the offense gets ordinary fast. The passing game ranks 75th in yards per game.

Keene takes the wheel

Arizona State isn't waiting on its quarterback. It is changing him. Mikey Keene is expected to start over Cutter Boley, though Dillingham hasn't officially named a starter. Boley threw a pick-six on his first pass against Texas Tech and was benched after a rough first half. Keene led a more productive offense after halftime in the 53-25 loss.

Keene inherits an offense that stalls in obvious spots. The Sun Devils convert 30.8% of third downs, 129th nationally, and allow 2.5 sacks per game. Their havoc allowed rate ranks 110th. Havoc is the share of plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.

Creating havoc is what Kansas State's defense does best. Its 20.6% havoc rate ranks 9th, and it averages 7.5 tackles for loss per game. Wendell Gregory has 9.5 of those himself.

Keene does have one reliable target. Reed Harris has 653 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.

Where Kansas State gives ground

By yardage, Kansas State's pass defense looks elite: it allows 136.3 passing yards per game, 3rd in FBS. The deeper numbers argue for caution. The Wildcats rank 136th in explosiveness allowed, which means that when opponents do succeed, they tend to succeed big. They rank 104th against the run in EPA, or expected points added per play. They also rank 126th in takeaways, so they rarely bail themselves out.

The recent trend is worse. Over the last three games, against Cincinnati, Houston and Kansas, K-State allowed 0.304 EPA per play and 30.0 points per game. That stretch included a 16-35 home loss to Houston. Cardae Mack averages 8.3 yards per carry, and he is the kind of back who turns one missed tackle into a long gain.

Field position tilts purple

The hidden yards favor Kansas State. Arizona State's net punting ranks 128th, and its opponents start drives at the 32.7-yard line on average, 135th nationally. ASU also allows 26.6 yards per punt return, 133rd. Kansas State is 10/10 on field goals.

The Wildcats do have one soft spot on special teams. They allow 29.9 yards per kick return, 132nd, and ASU averages 25.2 per return, 24th.

Market, model and schedule

Kansas State is a 2.5-point favorite after opening at 3.5, and the total sits at 56. Our model agrees almost exactly. It has Kansas State winning 29.3 to 26.7, and it gives Arizona State a 44% chance to win.

The ratings gap is wider than the line suggests: K-State is 29th in SP+ and ASU is 70th. But the Wildcats built their 4-2 record against a softer slate. The average SP+ of their FBS opponents is 0.8, against 6.3 for Arizona State. Kansas State is also still looking for its first road win of the season, and Klein is looking for his first as a head coach.