Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines prediction: Tommy Carr steps into Indiana's pass rush with Michigan's season on the line
Michigan is expected to bench Bryce Underwood and turn to the quarterback who rallied it past Penn State, behind a banged-up line facing one of the nation's best pass rushes.
| Spread | Indiana -7.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 42.5 |
- Expect a low-scoring grind in which Indiana's efficient passing outlasts a Michigan offense that struggles to turn drives into touchdowns.
- Tommy Carr, expected to start for Michigan, against an Indiana front averaging 3.43 sacks per game, with two Wolverines linemen ruled out.
- Our model makes Indiana an 8.85-point favorite with a 42.0 total, slightly stronger on the Hoosiers than the 7.5-point market line.
Michigan Hands Carr the Keys
Indiana arrives in Ann Arbor with its 22-game winning streak freshly snapped by Ohio State, and with a series history that hasn't produced a win at Michigan since 1967. Michigan arrives with a quarterback switch it won't confirm. Tommy Carr is expected to start over Bryce Underwood, and Kyle Whittingham said he might not "tip our hand."
The change has been building. Underwood has thrown 5 interceptions against 2 touchdown passes over his last three games. Against Penn State he managed 43 yards on 11 attempts before Carr replaced him at halftime. Carr led three second-half touchdown drives and finished the comeback himself with a 12-yard touchdown run with 2:58 left.
The opponent is a different animal. Indiana averages 3.43 sacks per game, 4th in FBS. Its havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup, sits at 19.3%. Michigan already allows havoc on 16.6% of plays, which ranks 104th, and it averages 1.83 turnovers per game, 123rd nationally.
The line in front of Carr is thin. Offensive linemen Ace Hamilton and Andrew Sprague are out, and center Jake Guarnera, Brady Norton and tackle Blake Frazier are all questionable. Norton missed the Penn State game. Tobi Osunsanmi and Stephen Daley have 4 sacks apiece over Indiana's last three games.
One caveat cuts Michigan's way: Indiana takes the ball away only 0.86 times per game, 106th in FBS. The Hoosiers get home, but they haven't been turning pressure into extra possessions.
Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines: quick answers
Who is favored in Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines?
Indiana is favored by 7.5 points (Indiana -7.5).
What is the over/under for Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines?
The total is 42.5 points.
When is Indiana Hoosiers vs Michigan Wolverines?
Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.