Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs Northern Illinois Huskies prediction: Telly Johnson Jr. gives winless NIU a running start against Hawai'i

Johnson runs into soft ground

Northern Illinois is 0-6, playing for an interim coach still chasing his first win, and getting 4 points at home Saturday from a 1-6 Hawai'i team. The Huskies' best chance at ending the skid sits in their backfield.

Telly Johnson Jr. has 271 rushing yards over his last three games. He averaged 6.9 yards per carry in that stretch. The run peaked with 139 yards at Wyoming last week. Hawai'i's front gives him room to keep going. The Warriors allow 182.9 rushing yards per game, 112th of 138. They rank 128th in stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line. Their line yards allowed per carry, a measure of how far the front gets pushed back, ranks 117th.

Our projection has NIU running for 175 yards, which suits a run-first, slow offense. Every chunk Johnson grinds out keeps Hawai'i's passing game on the sideline.

Alejado carries the whole load

Hawai'i can't answer on the ground. The Warriors run for 77.4 yards per game, dead last in FBS. Cam Barfield has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over the last three games.

That leaves Micah Alejado, who has already thrown 305 passes. The volume produces yards, 267.7 per game and 32nd nationally, but not efficiency. Hawai'i ranks 119th in passing EPA (expected points added per play).

NIU's pass defense looks sturdy by yardage, allowing 186.0 per game, 33rd. That number mostly reflects opponents running at will. By passing EPA allowed, the Huskies rank 103rd.

The pivot is third down. NIU allows conversions on 61.6% of third downs, worst in FBS. Hawai'i converts 36.3%, 102nd. Alejado has also thrown four interceptions in his last three games. Devin Alves is the downfield answer, with 257 yards on 11 catches over that span. Slotback Pofele Ashlock is listed questionable with a knee issue, and it isn't yet established whether Carson Brown (shoulder) plays.

Pressure and a missing center

Both quarterbacks have spent plenty of time on the turf. NIU gives up 3.83 sacks per game, 135th. It now plays without center Ethan Spencer, who is out indefinitely. Hawai'i allows 2.86 sacks per game, 127th.

The edge tilts to Hawai'i because NIU's defense rarely disrupts anyone. The Huskies rank last in havoc rate at 9.3%, meaning they seldom produce a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup. Hawai'i's havoc rate of 13.0% is only 115th. Still, Julian Smith gives the Warriors a spark after two sacks against San José State. Taron Dickens has completed 65.8% of his passes. He will want the ball out quickly to DeAree Rogers, who caught 11 passes at Wyoming.

Two résumés, two problems

Hawai'i has faced the softer schedule. The average current SP+ of its FBS opponents is -5.2, against 2.8 for NIU, where higher means tougher. Even so, Hawai'i has struggled when asked to win as a favorite. It fell 27-10 at Wyoming as a 2-point favorite. It then lost 20-16 at home to San José State while laying 3.

Wyoming is the common opponent. NIU lost 41-23 there last week, with Tyler Hughes running for four touchdowns. Hawai'i has covered as an underdog in its last two games. Against New Mexico its defense forced three turnovers and kept the Lobos scoreless for a half, then gave up 21 unanswered points.

NIU is 1-5 against the spread. Rob Harley took over after Thomas Hammock resigned in February to coach the Seattle Seahawks' running backs, and he still calls the defense. At 1-6 with five games left, Hawai'i needs this one to keep its season alive.

Hidden yards and our number

Special teams lean toward the visitors. NIU allows 39.0 yards per kick return, 137th of 137. Its net punting average of 34.3 yards ranks 131st. Hawai'i has its own oddity: it has made 75.0% of its extra points, last in FBS.

Our model makes Hawai'i a 4.5-point favorite, half a point above the market. Its fair total of 47.5 matches the posted number exactly. It gives NIU a 39% chance to win. For the first half, our number has Hawai'i by 2 with a total near 24.6.