Boise State Broncos vs Washington State Cougars prediction: Owen Eshelman's legs give Washington State a shot at Boise State

The freshman changed everything

Washington State's season was slipping away, so Kirby Moore took over the play sheet and handed the offense to a redshirt freshman. Owen Eshelman's first start ended in a loss, but the Cougars looked more dangerous than they had in weeks. Now No. 21 Boise State arrives off a bye, unbeaten in the Pac-12, with a defense that has one glaring weakness.

Eshelman replaced Caden Pinnick at Oregon State and threw for 289 yards while running for 136 more. He completed 32 of 49 passes, and his one interception came late in garbage time. Pinnick had averaged 5.3 yards per attempt with three touchdown passes all season.

Those numbers explain why the offense needed a change. Washington State's success rate (the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule) is 34.4%, 135th in FBS. A quarterback who can run changes that math, especially against this opponent.

Boise bends, then breaks

The Broncos are excellent at the line of scrimmage. Their 26.6% stuff rate, the share of runs stopped at or behind the line, ranks 7th. Once a play gets past the first level, though, it tends to go a long way.

Boise State ranks last in FBS, 138th, in explosiveness allowed, which measures how much damage opponents do on their successful plays. It also ranks 134th in yards per play allowed and 126th in passing yards allowed per game. A scrambling quarterback who extends plays and then throws downfield attacks that weakness directly. Branden Ganashamoorthy caught 11 passes for 147 yards in Eshelman's debut, a sign that the passing game finally had some life.

A line under pressure

The catch is that Eshelman has to stay upright long enough to find those plays. Washington State allows 3.14 sacks per game, 131st in FBS. Its havoc allowed rate is 19.3%, which ranks 134th. Havoc counts the plays that end in a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.

Left tackle Ashton Tripp left the Oregon State game with an ankle injury. "He'll be day-to-day," Moore said, and Maximus McCree would start if Tripp can't play. Receiver Darrius Clemons also has an ankle issue.

Boise State's havoc rate of 18.2% ranks 28th, and Max Stege has 1.5 sacks over his last three games. Turnovers widen the gap. Washington State gives the ball away 1.71 times per game, 122nd in FBS. Boise State gives it away 0.5 times per game, 10th.

Riley and the Boise ground game

Boise State's offense runs through the ground game. The Broncos rush for 234.5 yards per game, 9th in FBS. Their line yards per carry, a measure of what the blockers create on each run, rank 14th.

Dylan Riley has 835 yards at 6.6 yards per carry, and he ran for 150 against Fresno State. Sire Gaines is back from an upper-body injury and added 120 in that game. Washington State allows 158.3 rushing yards per game, 94th in FBS.

Maddux Madsen rarely makes mistakes, with 13 touchdown passes and no interceptions. Our testing finds that favorites who cover also tend to clear their rushing lines, and Boise State is built to win exactly that way.

Pullman history and the line

Boise State has never won in Pullman. Its first trip there ended in a 58-0 loss in 1997. Moore, a former Boise State receiver, has four former Broncos on his staff. The Broncos had 14 days to prepare, and Washington State had 7.

The market has moved toward the Cougars. Boise State opened as a 15.5-point favorite and is now laying 13. Washington State has covered five of seven games with a line, including covers as an underdog against Arizona, Utah State and Oregon State. Boise State failed to cover against South Dakota, Utah State and Fresno State.

One special-teams problem stands out for Washington State: it has made 8 of 13 field goals, so finishing drives matters more for the Cougars than for most teams.