Baylor Bears vs Kansas Jayhawks prediction: Kansas's homecoming hinges on running through Baylor's punishing front

Kansas runs into a wall

Kansas wins by running, and it hasn't found a Big 12 win yet. The Jayhawks are 0-3 in conference play heading into their 114th homecoming. Baylor has won 14 straight against the Jayhawks, and its defense is built to stop exactly what Kansas does best.

The Kansas offense ranks 12th nationally in rushing EPA (expected points added per play). It also ranks 12th in line yards per carry, a measure of how much push the blockers create, at 3.48. Isaiah Marshall drives it with 372 rushing yards this season, and he ran for 117 at Kansas State. Dylan Edwards adds 5.0 yards per carry.

Baylor is the worst possible draw for that offense. The Bears allow -0.222 EPA per rush, 2nd in FBS, and they stuff 25.6% of runs at or behind the line, which ranks 9th. They average 3.67 sacks per game, 3rd nationally. Their havoc rate, the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, sack, takeaway or pass breakup, is 20.4%, 11th. Daniel Cobbs has 3.0 sacks in five games.

Kansas has protected well, allowing 1.0 sack per game (16th). That line may be without Kasen Carpenter, whom Lance Leipold called probably doubtful, and Anderson Kopp could step in at center. At Utah, Edwards managed 22 yards on nine carries, a preview of what happens when the push disappears.

Lagway's all-or-nothing offense

Baylor's offense has the strangest profile in this game. Its success rate, the share of plays that keep an offense on schedule, is 37.4%, 127th of 138. Its explosiveness ranks 7th, so the plays that do work tend to go big. Over the last three games the success rate slipped to 34.0%.

Lagway's season fits that profile. He is completing 50.0% of his passes at 6.0 yards per attempt. Against TCU he went 22 of 53 for 256 yards with no touchdown passes, and Dave Aranda said the offensive line had its worst game. Lagway is still working back from a high-ankle sprain suffered in the opener. Aranda said Monday that his mobility had improved, but Lagway has -28 rushing yards this season, and his status for Saturday hasn't been confirmed. Nate Bennett started once earlier this season when Lagway was out.

The run game won't bail him out. Baylor ranks 97th in line yards per carry, and Kansas stuffs 24.9% of runs, 10th nationally. The opening is downfield: Kansas ranks 99th in explosiveness allowed. Gavin Freeman has 49 catches for 555 yards, and Louis Brown has turned 20 receptions into 327 yards.

Field position tilts toward Waco

The hidden yards lean hard toward Baylor. The Bears net 51.3 yards per punt, best in the country, and start drives at their own 33.1-yard line on average, 8th. Kansas starts at its own 26.3, 123rd.

Kansas coverage makes it worse. The Jayhawks allow 35.6 yards per kick return, 136th of 137. Kansas does return kicks well, at 31.6 yards per return (7th), which is its best counterpunch on special teams.

The Jayhawks also need to cash in on long fields against a defense that allows 2.31 points per scoring opportunity, 5th nationally. Baylor's own weakness is ball security, at 1.67 turnovers per game (113th). Kansas forces just 1.0 takeaway per game, 87th, which limits how much it can profit from that.

Two records, two schedules

The records flatter Baylor somewhat. Kansas's FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 5.6, against 2.9 for Baylor's. The Jayhawks lost at Utah (SP+ 10th) and at Kansas State (29th). Kansas State outgained them 568 yards to 319, and Leipold called it "Disappointing."

Baylor's toughest test so far was TCU (31st), and it lost that game 17-6 at home. The common opponent points the other way: Baylor won 55-19 at Arizona State, while Kansas fell 24-17 to the Sun Devils at a neutral site.

Against the number, Baylor is 4-2 and Kansas is 2-4. The Jayhawks failed to cover in each of their last two games.

What the number says

Kansas opened as a 3.5-point home underdog, and the line has moved to +2.5. Our fair line is Kansas +2.44, so we land almost exactly where the market does. Our model projects Baylor 27.6, Kansas 25.2, and gives Kansas a 44% chance to win.

The total sits at 52.5 against our 52.86. For the first half, our fair numbers are Kansas +0.83 and a total of 27.17.