Akron Zips vs Kent State Golden Flashes prediction: Brayden Roggow's interceptions could hand Kent State the Wagon Wheel

Roggow's giveaway problem

The Wagon Wheel goes back on the line Saturday between two teams buried near the bottom of every rating system. Akron is 133rd in SP+ and Kent State is 132nd, so the 68th meeting will likely go to whoever hands over fewer free possessions. Right now that question starts with Akron's quarterback.

Brayden Roggow has thrown 9 interceptions this season, and 7 of them came in his last three games. At Miami (OH) last week he opened with an 11-play, 97-yard touchdown drive, capped by a 6-yard pass to Marcel Williams. Then he threw four interceptions in a 34-14 loss. Akron turns the ball over 2.0 times a game, 132nd of 138.

The catch is that Kent State rarely takes the ball away. The Golden Flashes average 0.86 takeaways a game, 106th. Roggow has also shown the other version of himself: against Eastern Michigan he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions. Cibastian Broughton, another Akron quarterback, is listed questionable with a knee injury, and Akron hasn't confirmed his status.

Kent State can't finish

Kent State has the worst scoring offense in FBS at 12.0 points a game, 138th. It has been even worse lately, averaging 6.3 points over its last three games against Ohio, Western Michigan and South Florida. The last of those was a 29-2 loss in Tampa where a scoop-and-score turned the game.

The deepest problem is finishing. Kent State gets 1.81 points per scoring opportunity, 137th, and its kickers are 3/8 on field goals. Dru DeShields has thrown just 4 touchdown passes all season.

Akron is the opponent most likely to cure some of that. The Zips allow 200.4 rushing yards a game, 129th, and rank 130th in rushing EPA allowed (expected points added per play, a measure of how much each snap helps the offense). They also average 0.57 sacks a game, 136th, so DeShields should have time to throw. Our projection has Kent State running for 175 yards. That is a big ask of a ground game that ranks 134th in line yards per carry, the rushing yardage credited to the offensive line.

Akron's one real edge

Akron's offense has a genuine strength up front. Its 3.4 line yards per carry rank 17th, and Kent State allows 3.14, 110th. Jordan Gant has run for 265 yards over his last three games at 4.9 a carry.

Everything around that run game breaks down. Akron allows havoc (plays with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup) on 19.6% of snaps, 135th. It also gives up 2.71 sacks a game. Kent State's pass rush is average at 2.14 sacks a game, 58th, with Rocco Nicholl and Jaihien Roy each at 3.0 sacks.

Akron's backfield depth is unsettled. Chris Gee has a knee injury and it's unclear whether he plays. Sean Patrick did not appear in the Miami game log and has no confirmed status.

Records hide the schedule

Kent State's 2-5 came against tougher competition. Its FBS opponents carry an average SP+ of 2.4, while Akron's sit at -3.6. Akron lost at Central Michigan, which ranks 126th in SP+, and the final was 41-17. The Zips also fell 25-23 at home to Eastern Michigan.

The series has swung back and forth. Kent State won last year's meeting 42-35 in overtime, and Akron leads the all-time series 37-29-2. Mark Carney, promoted from interim coach, is defending the trophy at home, while Joe Moorhead's Zips are 0-3 in the MAC.

What our numbers say

Kent State opened as a 3-point favorite and hasn't moved across 29 books, with the total at 46.5. Our model makes it Kent State by 3.62 with a total of 46.23, and gives the Golden Flashes a 59.0% chance to win. That is 0.6 points more on Kent State than the market, close enough that the price looks fair. For the first half, our number is Kent State -2.94 with a total of 24.04.

If Kent State covers, it most likely gets there on the ground against Akron's run defense. In our testing, when the favorite covers, its rushing total goes over 33.9% of the time. If the two were unrelated, that figure would be 25.3%.