VMI vs UTSA prediction: UTSA's transfer-built rebuild opens against VMI's three-point barrage

Two programs starting over

Neither side has much to protect. VMI went 6-26 last season and UTSA went 5-25, and both finished deep in the national efficiency tables. VMI's adjusted net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) was -26.3, 358th of 365. UTSA's was -19.4, 339th.

Those are last season's final ratings, and for UTSA in particular they may say little about the team that takes the floor. Austin Claunch's roster lists a long run of newcomers: Isaiah Coleman from Oklahoma State, Isaiah Watts from Maryland, KJ Tenner from Murray State, Josiah LeGree from Morehead State, plus a pair from South Dakota in Shey Eberwein and Ashton Smith. Add a freshman class that includes Mike Broxton Jr. and Jayson Peterson, and this opener doubles as a first look at who actually plays. Starting roles have not been confirmed.

VMI lives behind the arc

VMI's identity last season was unmistakable. The Keydets took 54.0% of their shots from three, the 2nd-highest rate in Division I. They didn't make enough of them, hitting 32.9%, and the fallback inside was worse: 48.8% on twos, 314th.

That volume lands on a UTSA defense that let opponents shoot plenty of threes last season, with an opponent attempt rate of 43.6% that ranked 52nd-highest. If that pattern holds, VMI gets the shots it wants, and the game swings on whether they fall. Inside, UTSA's block rate of 12.1% ranked 50th last season, another reason VMI will keep firing from outside.

Andrew Wilson's roster leans young, with freshmen including Cazell Henderson-Bradley, Zion Vaamonde and Rokas Zilys listed. TJ Johnson, a preseason all-SoCon pick, is the name to know. The SoCon coaches picked VMI ninth with 32 points.

Where UTSA must improve

UTSA's offense was the weak half last season. The Roadrunners shot 29.7% from three, 353rd nationally, and their effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 45.9% ranked 356th. The transfer haul exists largely to fix that.

The glass is the other concern. UTSA's defensive rebound rate of 63.1% ranked 361st, meaning opponents grabbed a large share of their own misses. VMI was barely better at 65.3%, 345th, so second chances could pile up at both ends. VMI did protect the ball, with a turnover rate of 14.7% that ranked 43rd last season.

Schedule and setting

This is the back end of VMI's only trip out of Virginia: a game at SMU on Nov. 5, then San Antonio on Nov. 7. That's a tight turnaround with travel in between, and a young roster will be playing its second road game in Texas that week.

UTSA gets the Convocation Center. Tempo shouldn't be a fight: UTSA played at 70 possessions per 40 minutes last season (73rd) and VMI at 68.5 (139th). No injuries have surfaced for either team. Tip time and TV details have not been announced, and no line has been posted.