Denver vs UC Riverside prediction: Denver's sharpshooters test UC Riverside in a season-opening shootout

A Denver team built to outscore

Denver enters its first season in the West Coast Conference with the same question that defined last season's 15-17 finish: can it stop anybody? The Pioneers scored 120.0 points per 100 possessions in 2025-26, 35th in Division I, and allowed 120.4, which ranked 359th of 365.

The offense ran on shooting. Denver made 38.0% of its threes, 18th nationally, and its effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes 1.5 times) ranked 35th. The defense gave almost all of it back. Opponents posted a 55.6% effective field goal mark, and Denver rarely ended possessions on its own terms, ranking 357th in both steal rate and block rate.

Both programs are in year two under their coaches, Tim Bergstraser at Denver and Gus Argenal at UC Riverside. Neither school's returning minutes are known, so last season's team numbers describe a starting point rather than this roster.

The three-point pressure point

This is where the game gets interesting. UC Riverside's defense was average or worse in most areas last season, but it kept opponents off the three-point line. Only 31.2% of opponents' shots were threes, the 359th-highest rate in the country, so almost no defense allowed fewer attempts.

Denver didn't depend on volume, with a three-point attempt rate near the national middle at 38.6%. What it needed were clean looks. If the Highlanders run the Pioneers off the line, Denver has to score inside, where it made 54.3% of its twos last season, 99th nationally. That is respectable, but it isn't the edge the shooting is.

Turnovers favor the visitors

The possession battle tilted toward Denver last season. The Pioneers turned it over on 14.3% of possessions, 28th in the country, and UC Riverside's defense did little to change that, ranking 261st in forced turnover rate.

The other direction is the Highlanders' opening. UC Riverside gave the ball away on 18.5% of its possessions, 287th nationally. Denver is poorly built to make anyone pay for that, since its forced turnover rate ranked 358th. Expect a clean game with few live-ball steals and plenty of half-court possessions.

Tempo and the free-throw line

UC Riverside pushed the ball last season at 70.4 possessions per 40 minutes, 58th fastest, while Denver sat at 68.9. Neither team is likely to drag this into a grind, and that matters because both defenses struggled.

The Highlanders also fouled often, with an opponent free throw rate that ranked 300th. That suits Denver, which shot 77.3% from the line last season, 25th nationally. If this tightens late, the Pioneers have the steadier hands.

What to watch - Whether UC Riverside keeps running Denver off the three-point line, as it did to opponents last season. - Highlander ball security against a Denver defense that rarely forces mistakes. - Where the first total lands, given two defenses that ranked 247th or worse in efficiency last season.