Southern Indiana vs Evansville prediction: Rebuilt Southern Indiana and Evansville finally share a Division I floor
The River City Classic is the first meeting between these neighbors since 2019, and both arrive with rosters that look little like the teams that won seven games apiece last season.
- Expect a slow, grinding game between two retooled rosters. Whichever group of newcomers makes shots early probably controls it.
- Watch Evansville's three-point volume against a USI defense that steered opponents away from the arc last season.
- No line is posted yet. Last season's final adjusted net ratings had Evansville 305th and USI 336th of 365.
A rivalry made official
Evansville and Southern Indiana sit a short drive apart, yet they have not met since a 2019 preseason exhibition. The River City Classic on Saturday, Nov. 7, at 8 p.m. ET is their first game as Division I members. The Ford Center hosts, Evansville is listed as the home side, and tickets are split 50-50, so expect a crowd closer to even than a normal Aces home game.
Neither program has much to protect. USI went 7-23 last season and Evansville went 7-25. Both benches are settled: David Ragland is in his fifth season at Evansville, and Stan Gouard enters his seventh at USI with 299 career wins.
Rosters built from scratch
Last season's numbers are a weak guide here, because both teams turned over heavily. USI lost a long list of players to graduation and the transfer portal and says only three players are returners. Guard LA Hayes arrives from UTEP. Senior guard Kaden Brown spent the second half of last season recovering from injury, and his current status hasn't been reported. USI was picked seventh in the OVC preseason poll with 44 points.
Evansville restocked through transfers: Makuei Riek, Luke Ellspermann, Max Langenfeld from FAU and Gustav Winther from NIU, plus freshmen Jake Genschaw, Junior Kemm and Rafayel Masumyan. No Evansville injuries had been reported as of Oct. 19. Their most recent outing was a 79-74 loss at Austin Peay on Oct. 11.
The three-point tug of war
Last season's profiles still hint at a stylistic clash. Evansville liked the three, taking 43.3% of its shots from deep, but its defense was badly exposed there: opponents made 37.0% of their threes, 353rd of 365.
USI's problem sat at the other end. Its effective field goal percentage, which counts threes as 1.5 times a two, was 44.9%, 363rd nationally. The Screaming Eagles did defend, though. Opponents hit just 47.9% inside the arc, 49th nationally. USI's opponents also had one of the lowest three-point attempt rates in the country, at 27.4%, 364th, which suggests a defense that took the arc away. If that identity survives the roster churn, Evansville's preferred shot gets harder to find.
Possessions, pace and size
Evansville rarely got second chances last season, grabbing 23.0% of its misses, 356th. That is where USI was vulnerable, though: the Eagles held only 66.7% of opponents' misses, 319th. The glass is a spot where the Aces could find extra possessions, especially with a rotation that measures 78.7 inches on average, weighted by minutes, against 76.7 for USI.
USI played slowly last season, at 64.2 possessions per 40 minutes, 336th. Fewer trips magnify every empty possession, and both teams gave the ball away often. In a tight finish, USI's free-throw shooting is a worry: it made 65.6% last season, 358th.
Numbers that matter
| USI effective FG% (last season) | 44.9% | Ranked 363rd of 365 last season, the core problem USI's new roster has to fix. |
|---|---|---|
| Evansville opponent 3-point % (last season) | 37.0% | Ranked 353rd, a soft spot if USI's newcomers can shoot. |
| USI opponent 3-point attempt rate (last season) | 27.4% | Opponents rarely shot threes against USI, which clashes with Evansville's three-heavy approach. |
| Evansville offensive rebound % (last season) | 23.0% | Ranked 356th, though USI's defensive glass was also weak at 319th. |
Southern Indiana vs Evansville: quick answers
When is Southern Indiana vs Evansville?
Saturday, November 7, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.