Maryland vs Georgetown prediction: Maryland's rebuilt Terps bring new shooters to Georgetown's downtown floor

Maryland starts over almost entirely

Last season was a hard first year for Buzz Williams. Maryland went 12-21 and 4-16 in the Big Ten. Williams answered by clearing the roster. Players back from that team account for just 24.5% of last season's minutes, and the Terps listed 11 new faces at media day on Oct. 22.

That makes last season's team numbers a weak guide. A unit that finished 334th of 365 in net efficiency (points scored minus points allowed per 100 possessions) mostly isn't here anymore.

The player who matters most among the returners barely played for that team. Pharrel Payne appeared in only 10 games but averaged 17.5 points on 62.4% shooting. A medical redshirt waiver was reported granted in the spring, he was named a preseason All-Big Ten honoree, and he has been described as healthy this fall. Previews project him in the frontcourt beside New Mexico transfer Tomislav Buljan and five-star freshman Baba Oladotun, though no lineup is confirmed. Robert Jennings, limited to three games last season by a hip injury, has no reported status.

Same volume, better shooters

Maryland's problem last season wasn't how often it shot threes. It was how rarely they went in. The Terps ranked 33rd in 3-point attempt rate yet made just 31.6% of their threes, 310th nationally. That combination is why their effective field goal percentage (a shooting measure that counts threes as 1.5 makes) sat at 48.1%, 330th.

The portal class reads like a direct response. McNair started all 34 games at Boston University and hit 44.4% from deep on 248 attempts, with an offensive rating of 128.3. Maban Jabriel shot 43.2% from three at Queens. Bishop Boswell (Tennessee) and DJ Wagner (Arkansas) add experienced ball handlers. Andre Mills, the top returning guard, averaged 12.2 points.

If Williams keeps last season's shot diet with this personnel, Georgetown has to guard the arc in a way it rarely needed to last season, when its own perimeter shooting ranked 298th at 31.8%.

Georgetown's lineup is the open question

Ed Cooley's fourth Georgetown team is also new. Malik Mack left for Providence, Isaiah Abraham for Kansas State and Julius Halaifonua for Oklahoma State. Caleb Williams and Kayvaun Mulready return, and the Hoyas added Jaland Lowe (Kentucky), Elmarko Jackson (Kansas) and Chol Machot (Charleston).

Several of those names come with unresolved status. Lowe's shoulder clearance drew conflicting reports in April, and nothing newer has surfaced. DePaul transfer NJ Benson's eligibility was described as unsettled as of mid-October and he was not on the published roster. Vince Iwuchukwu's eligibility is also in dispute. No Georgetown injuries were listed as of Oct. 19.

Last season's Hoyas, a 16-18 team, were built on ball movement: their 57.8% assist rate ranked 61st. How much of that identity survives depends on who is actually cleared by Nov. 7.

Slow tempo, familiar building

Both teams played deliberately last season. Maryland averaged 66.1 possessions per 40 minutes (267th) and Georgetown 66.4 (247th). New rosters can change that, and fewer possessions tend to keep a game between closely rated teams tight.

This is a Georgetown home game at Capital One Arena, the second meeting of a four-game series. The Hoyas won the first one 70-60 at Xfinity Center last November. Maryland arrives having won its exhibitions, including an Oct. 18 game against West Virginia in which it rallied from 19 points down. Oladotun said the comeback showed the group's resilience.

What to watch

• McNair's volume. He played 36.1 minutes a night at Boston University; whether Williams leans on him that heavily sets Maryland's ceiling.
• Payne's workload. His 27.5% usage rate in his short season made him the focal point when healthy.
• Georgetown's availability. Lowe's and Benson's status may not be settled until close to tip.
• Defensive glass. Last season's Hoyas ranked 260th in defensive rebound rate; Buljan averaged 10.3 rebounds at New Mexico.