Fresno State vs UC San Diego prediction: Treysen Eaglestaff brings a scorer's debut to Fresno State's soft middle

A transfer arrives with a bang

UC San Diego's season opens with a question it answered loudly in October. Treysen Eaglestaff, a fifth-year guard from West Virginia, scored a game-high 29 points in his first game as a Triton, an exhibition against USC at LionTree Arena. He hit his first four 3-point tries and scored 14 quick points early. The Tritons still lost, 80-74, but the Big West now has a name to game-plan around: Eaglestaff was tabbed transfer of the year in a preseason Big West list that slotted UC San Diego fourth.

Fresno State is the defense that gets the first look in a game that counts. Last season the Bulldogs allowed opponents to take a lot of threes, a 3-point attempt rate of 44.4% that ranked 37th-most nationally, yet those opponents made only 30.2%, 17th-best in Division I. Whether that was a sturdy perimeter defense or good fortune is what Eaglestaff will test on Nov. 7.

Fresno State's problem is inside

The Bulldogs' real weakness last season sat closer to the rim. Opponents made 55.3% of their twos, 331st of 365, and Fresno State blocked shots at a rate that also ranked 331st. That is a poor fit against a UC San Diego offense that converted 55.2% of its twos last season, 66th nationally.

The good news for Fresno State is continuity. The roster returns 77.4% of last season's minutes, so last season's numbers describe this group better than they usually would. Jake Heidbreder (17.0 points per game) and DeShawn Gory (13.7) are both back, along with center Wilson Jacques. The Bulldogs also play slightly bigger, at 79.2 inches of minutes-weighted average height against UC San Diego's 78.3. The catch is that this was a 13-19 team, and keeping it together only helps if it improved over the summer.

Possessions Fresno State gave away

Fresno State's offense gave away possessions in two ways last season. It turned the ball over on 18.6% of possessions, 295th nationally, and it rebounded only 28.3% of its misses, 280th. UC San Diego is built to punish both. The Tritons ranked 40th in defensive rebound rate (the share of opponents' misses they collect) and 96th in steal rate.

That pressure showed up in October, when first-year Rahmir Barno added four steals to his 10 points against USC. Fresno State also lost its primary playmaker: Zaon Collins, who averaged 4.6 assists last season, is now at Ball State. Who handles the ball against Tritons pressure is worth watching early.

Few trips to the line

Both defenses kept opponents off the free-throw line last season, with UC San Diego 48th and Fresno State 49th in opponent free throw rate (free throws attempted per shot). Points will mostly come from the field. If the game is close late, the edge tilts to Fresno State: Heidbreder shot 90.1% at the line last season, while UC San Diego made just 69.5% as a team, 275th nationally.

Context and what to watch

UC San Diego won last season's meeting 78-73 at Fresno State and finished 23-11 behind a defense that allowed 101.2 points per 100 possessions, 36th nationally. This one is a 10 p.m. ET tip in San Diego, a non-conference test before the Tritons begin Big West play Dec. 3. Fresno State is entering its first season in the Pac-12.

• Eaglestaff's volume from three against a Bulldogs defense that concedes attempts.
• Fresno State's turnover count against Tritons pressure.
• Whether Fresno State can protect the rim at all against UC San Diego's interior scoring.