VCU vs Memphis prediction: VCU brings back its core while Penny Hardaway's rebuilt Memphis debuts

Continuity against a clean slate

Early-November games often reward the team that already knows itself. VCU does. The defending Atlantic 10 champions were picked first in the league's preseason coaches poll, and seven Rams return from a 28-8 team. Players on this roster logged 70.6% of last season's minutes, and that gives last season's numbers real weight. The Rams finished 47th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions scored minus allowed, adjusted for opponents).

The change is on the bench. Phil Martelli Jr. is in his first year as head coach, so a familiar roster will be running a new staff's ideas.

Memphis is close to a new team. The Tigers list 13 newcomers, including nine Division I transfers. Last season's 13-19 team ranked 126th in adjusted net efficiency, but that tells you little about this group. Coaches still picked Memphis second in the American, with four first-place votes. The other league coaches clearly think the new talent outpaces the old results.

VCU lives at the line

The clearest identity VCU carries over is getting to the free-throw line. Last season the Rams posted a free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 42.0%, 27th nationally. They also shot 36.3% from three, 46th, so defenses couldn't simply pack the paint.

Last season's Memphis fouled a lot. Its opponents' free throw rate of 42.4% ranked 338th. The same defense was stingy beyond the arc, though, holding opponents to 30.5% from three, 28th in the country. With this much roster turnover, treat both as a hint about Hardaway's scheme rather than a scouting report on these players. If the new Tigers still reach and hack, VCU's veterans are built to cash in.

Tempo is a smaller factor. Memphis played at 70.7 possessions per 40 minutes last season, 48th, while VCU sat at 68.8, 128th. Expect Hardaway's group to push and the Rams to settle things down.

Who carries the Rams

Djokovic is the hub. The forward's line is plain: 13.2 points per game last season with an offensive rating of 125, plus 1.2 blocks a night. Nyk Lewis, the A-10 Rookie of the Year, hit 46 threes. Brandon Jennings, an All-Defensive pick, shot 43.1% from deep and averaged 1.7 steals. Michael Belle came off the bench in every game but posted a 59.3% effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times).

The hole is Terrence Hill Jr., who scored 15.0 points per game last season with a 26.0 usage rate and is now at Tennessee. Watch who takes the late-clock shots.

A pressure season for Hardaway

Hardaway enters his ninth season after last year's run ended with a first-round loss to Tulane in the conference tournament. National previews have framed this season as a potential last stand for him. That makes a home date with the A-10 preseason favorite more than a tune-up.

The game also opens a new home-and-home series. Memphis leads the all-time series 6-3. The teams last met on Dec. 6, 2023, when the Tigers won 85-80 in overtime in Richmond. No injuries or suspensions turned up for either team as of Oct. 25.