Valparaiso Beacons vs South Dakota St Jackrabbits prediction: Rakim Chaney and Valpo's tidy ball-handling face South Dakota State's pickpockets

Careful hands, quick hands

Two mid-majors arrive with unbeaten records and a power-conference scalp apiece. Valparaiso won 83-80 in double overtime at No. 24 Purdue last Friday, and South Dakota State opened with a 68-66 upset at Kansas State. One of them leaves Brookings with its first loss, and the likeliest place it gets decided is the ball itself.

Valpo protects it as well as almost anyone. The Beacons have turned it over on 12.2% of their possessions (turnover rate), 25th in Division I. South Dakota State lives on the other end of that equation, forcing turnovers on 25.7% of opponent possessions, 36th nationally, with a steal rate that ranks 13th.

Sayler leads that pressure at 3.0 steals per game, with Jon Mekonnen and Trey Buchanan adding two apiece. Their target is Chaney, who carries a 29.7% usage rate and has been the Beacons' engine. If Valpo keeps its giveaways near its early-season norm, it takes away the transition chances SDSU needs to manufacture easy points.

Few possessions, fewer second chances

Neither team wants to run. Valpo plays at 64.9 possessions per 40 minutes, 334th in the country, and SDSU sits 267th. That keeps the possession count low and puts extra weight on every empty trip.

The Jackrabbits finish defensive possessions about as well as anyone, grabbing 85.2% of opponent misses, 2nd in Division I. That was no fluke of a two-game start: they ranked 7th in that stat last season. Valpo rebounds only 27.6% of its own misses, 285th, so the Beacons should expect one shot per trip.

Valpo has also started slowly, averaging 29.0 first-half points (320th) and trailing Purdue 32-20 at the break before rallying. A similar start on the road would leave less room to recover.

Threes allowed, threes missed

South Dakota State's defense invites the perimeter shot. Opponents have taken 51.6% of their attempts from three, 22nd-most nationally. That would worry most coaches, but Valpo is an odd team to exploit it: the Beacons are making just 25.6% of their threes, 332nd.

The Beacons do their damage inside and at the line. They hit 59.0% of their twos, 101st, against a Jackrabbits defense that blocks just 4.4% of opponent two-point tries, 339th. Valpo also draws fouls at a high rate, 47th in free throw rate, but converts only 64.4% at the stripe. Chaney is at 60% himself, and in a game priced this close, those misses could decide it.

At the other end, Valpo's defense has held opponents to 21.4% from three, 11th nationally. That sets up a test for Davis Kern, who made 5 of 8 threes in the win at Kansas State.

Bodies in the frontcourt

SDSU's depth up front is thin. Center Alec Squires, who stands 6-foot-10, was listed as day-to-day with a back injury as of Wednesday, and the team hopes he makes his season debut tonight. Forward Jesse Van Kalsbeek, the reigning NAIA player of the year, is week-to-week with a back injury. Buchanan, a former Iowa guard who missed most of last season, is back healthy.

Valpo's interior help comes from Carter Hopoi, who is blocking 2.5 shots a game. No current injuries were reported in the Beacons' rotation.

Both rosters were rebuilt over the summer. Valpo returns 47.4% of last season's minutes and SDSU just 42.4%, which makes last season's ratings a weak guide. Those ratings had Valpo 163rd in adjusted net efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents) and SDSU 206th.

Where the number sits

The market treats this as close to even. Valpo is a 1.5-point favorite, and the line has drifted toward South Dakota State since it first appeared at 2. The total has held at 142.5.

Valpo has covered both of its games this season, including as a 19.5-point underdog at Purdue. SDSU's early numbers are harder to read: one of its two wins came at home against Briar Cliff. This is also the Jackrabbits' first home game against a Division I opponent this season, and both teams come in on five days of rest.