Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers prediction: Cal Baptist's rebuilt defense looks for answers against Mike Price
Last season's Lancers choked off the paint; this year's version has given up layups, and Chicago State's high-volume transfer guard is the next test.
Chicago St Cougars covered the closing spread (Chicago St Cougars +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 136.5.
| Spread | California Baptist -11.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 138.5 |
- Expect a grind between two rebuilt offenses shooting poorly, with Chicago State's turnover problem the likeliest thing to separate them.
- Mike Price, using 39.3% of Chicago State's possessions, against a Cal Baptist interior allowing 71.2% on two-point shots.
- Cal Baptist is favored by 10.5 with a 141.5 total, unmoved all day, and the Lancers are 0-2 against the spread.
The defense that left town
California Baptist went 25-9 last season on the strength of a defense that ranked 50th nationally in adjusted efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). Very little of that team remains. Players on this roster logged only 13.5% of last season's minutes, and Dominique Daniels Jr., who averaged 23.1 points, is gone.
The first two games of the Lancers' debut Big West season show the cost. Opponents are making 71.2% of their two-point attempts, 362nd of 364 Division I teams, and Cal Baptist blocks almost nothing (354th in block rate). North Florida won 71-63 in Riverside as a 10.75-point underdog, and Oregon State followed with a 96-68 rout. Whatever last season's numbers say about this program, they describe a different group of players.
Price carries the Cougars
Chicago State is rebuilt even more completely, with 7.7% of last season's minutes back. The offense now runs through Mike Price, a transfer who averaged 6.5 points at Cal State Bakersfield last season. He's scoring 19.7 a night with a usage rate of 39.3%, meaning he finishes nearly four of every ten Cougar possessions.
Volume isn't efficiency. Price went 6-for-18 while scoring 26 against South Carolina State, and his effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) sits at 40.8%. The team around him has been worse inside, making 44.0% of its twos, 322nd nationally. That's the collision worth watching: a team that can't finish at the rim facing one that can't protect it.
Possessions and the free-throw line
Chicago State's biggest leak is ball security. The Cougars turn it over on 24.5% of possessions, 347th in the country. Cal Baptist hasn't been disruptive, ranking 253rd in forced turnover rate, so the Lancers may need Chicago State to give the ball away rather than take it.
The whistle tilts toward the home side. Chicago State gets to the line often (106th in free throw rate, free throw attempts per shot) and sends opponents there even more, with an opponent free throw rate of 50.9% that ranks 333rd. Cal Baptist, by contrast, rarely fouls: its opponent rate ranks 16th. If that holds, Price's best route to cheap points narrows, and the Lancers collect extra trips of their own.
Reading the number
Cal Baptist is a 10.5-point favorite with a total of 141.5, and neither has budged since our feed first logged the game Wednesday morning. Both teams play at a near-identical pace of about 71 possessions per 40 minutes, so expect no tempo fight.
The Lancers haven't covered yet, and the North Florida loss came at a similar price. Chicago State has one cover, a 66-54 win at Incarnate Word as an 8.5-point underdog. The Cougars also start slowly: they allow 43.7 first-half points per game, 340th nationally, and trailed South Carolina State 53-33 at the break.
Schedule favors the hosts. Cal Baptist has had five days off; Chicago State comes in on two days' rest for a 7 p.m. local tip. The only recent meeting went Cal Baptist's way, 74-62 in Riverside in December 2023. No injuries have been reported for either team.
Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers line movement and odds
| Book | Cougars ML | Lancers ML | Cougars spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +500 | -700 | +10.5 (-102) | o136.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +500 | -770 | +11.5 (-113) | o137.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | +525 | -750 | +11.5 (-118) | o136.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +500 | -800 | +10.5 (+100) | o135.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +550 | -800 | +11.5 (-115) | o136.5 (-107) |
| FanDuel | +500 | -720 | +10.5 (-102) | o136.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +500 | -750 | +11.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 64% of bets, 25% of the money; Cal Baptist Lancers: 37% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cal Baptist Lancers -10.5: 63% of bets, 75% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +10.5: 38% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 16% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 137.5: 85% of bets, 97% of the money.
Key players
- Mike Price (Chicago State): The Bakersfield transfer averages 19.7 points with a 39.3% usage rate but just a 40.8% effective field goal percentage.
- Will Lovings-Watts (Chicago State): He leads the regulars with 1.7 steals per game, though he's shooting 30.8% from the field.
- Kameron Foman (Chicago State): A bench piece pulling 4.7 rebounds in 22.7 minutes, he grabbed seven boards at Incarnate Word.
- Terry Coner Jr. (California Baptist): He leads the Lancers at 14.5 points on 52.6% shooting with a team-best 121.2 offensive rating.
- Jordan Muller (California Baptist): The top returner has stepped up to 12.0 points per game after averaging 4.5 last season.
- Ethan Duncan (California Baptist): He hit 36.7% from three at Lipscomb last season but is 3-for-12 from deep so far.
Numbers that matter
| Cal Baptist opponent 2-point % | 71.2% | Ranks 362nd of 364, a collapse from last season's elite interior defense. |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago State turnover rate | 24.5% | Ranks 347th, the Cougars' clearest path to losing by double digits. |
| Mike Price usage rate | 39.3% | Chicago State's offense lives and dies with one inefficient high-volume guard. |
| Cal Baptist opponent free throw rate | 20.8% | Ranks 16th, blunting a Chicago State team that relies on getting to the line. |
| Spread | -10.5 | Cal Baptist's line hasn't moved, and the Lancers failed to cover a similar number against North Florida. |
Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers: quick answers
What was the final score of Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
Chicago St Cougars 81, Cal Baptist Lancers 62 (final). Chicago St Cougars covered the closing spread (Chicago St Cougars +11.5). The game went over the closing total of 136.5.
Who is favored in Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
California Baptist is favored by 11.5 points (California Baptist -11.5).
What is the over/under for Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
The total is 138.5 points.
When is Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
Yes: Chicago St Cougars opened +10.5 and is now +11.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 136.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Chicago St Cougars vs Cal Baptist Lancers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Chicago St Cougars: 64% of bets, 25% of the money; Cal Baptist Lancers: 37% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Cal Baptist Lancers -10.5: 63% of bets, 75% of the money; Chicago St Cougars +10.5: 38% of bets, 25% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 137.5: 16% of bets, 3% of the money; Under 137.5: 85% of bets, 97% of the money.