Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams prediction: Portland State's free-throw habit runs into Colorado State's tidy defense
A Vikings roster built almost from scratch lives on second chances and trips to the line, and the Rams rarely give up either.
Portland St Vikings covered the closing spread (Portland St Vikings +16.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Colorado State -16.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 150.5 |
- Colorado State should control the half court with efficient twos and clean defensive rebounding while a rebuilt Portland State tries to steal extra possessions.
- Portland State's offensive rebounding, 26th nationally, against a Colorado State defense that ranks 28th in defensive rebound rate.
- Colorado State is a 15-point favorite and the total rose from 147.5 to 150.5; the Rams failed to cover both games as favorites.
Second chances and free throws
Portland State's offense has run on extra chances through two games. The Vikings have rebounded 44.0% of their own misses, 26th in Division I. Their free throw rate (free throw attempts per field goal attempt) sits at 55.8%, 14th nationally.
The catch is what happens once they get to the line. They have made 61.2% of their free throws, which ranks 327th, so a lot of those trips end with points left on the floor.
Colorado State is built to cut off both supply lines. The Rams have grabbed 78.5% of opponents' misses, 28th in the country. Their opponents' free throw rate ranks 62nd, meaning they defend without fouling. If the Rams keep Portland State to one shot and off the line, the Vikings have to win a half-court shooting game with a lineup that has barely played together.
Thirteen newcomers, one clean slate
Only 3.7% of last season's Portland State minutes belong to players on this roster. Coach Jase Coburn, the Big Sky Coach of the Year, rebuilt with 13 newcomers, a mix of transfers and international signees. Last season's stingy defense left with the players who built it, so those numbers say little about this group.
Yaroslav Nikonov has taken over the offense. He carries a 32.6% usage rate and averages 15.0 points, though he has needed a lot of shots to get there. Luke Kearney has been the efficient option, hitting half his threes, and Trevor Frank gives the Vikings a second perimeter threat.
Ball security is the worry. Live-ball turnovers fueled the decisive run in the 79-60 loss at Seattle U, and the Vikings' turnover rate ranks 209th. The relief is that Colorado State doesn't press much: the Rams rank 294th in forced turnover rate.
Rams lean on familiar faces
Colorado State returns 57.9% of last season's minutes, with Jase Butler, Carey Booth, Kyle Jorgensen and Josh Pascarelli all back in the starting group. Butler has been the engine, averaging 15.5 points while running the offense, and he and Jorgensen each scored 19 against Idaho.
The Rams have scored efficiently inside, making 62.5% of their twos. That will be tested by a Portland State defense that ranks 47th in block rate early on.
The outside shooting hasn't arrived yet. Last season's team made 38.5% of its threes, and this group is at 33.3%. Pascarelli, a 41.5% shooter from deep last season, went scoreless against Idaho. If he finds his stroke, the Rams have a cushion that Portland State's roster may not be able to close.
Where the number sits
Colorado State is a 15-point favorite, the same number our feed first saw, and the spread hasn't moved. The total has: it rose from 147.5 to 150.5 since Tuesday afternoon.
That climb fits the tempo. Portland State has played at 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes, 94th nationally. Colorado State played at a crawl last season, ranking 361st in pace, but has sped up with this group.
The spread history cuts the other way. The Rams won both home games comfortably but failed to cover either as a double-digit favorite, including at -16 against Idaho. Portland State's only lined game, at Seattle U, went under.
Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams line movement and odds
| Book | Vikings ML | Rams ML | Vikings spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +950 | -2000 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | +900 | -2000 | +16.5 (-114) | o150.5 (-112) |
| DraftKings | +1100 | -2100 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-112) |
| ESPN BET | +1200 | -3000 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +1100 | -2000 | +16.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-110) |
| FanDuel | +1160 | -2800 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +900 | -2000 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | +1050 | -2000 | +16.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams
On the Kalshi moneyline: Portland St Vikings: 47% of bets, 5% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 53% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -17.5: 46% of bets, 57% of the money; Portland St Vikings +17.5: 55% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 37% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 149.5: 63% of bets, 37% of the money.
Key players
- Jase Butler (Colorado State): Butler is averaging 15.5 points and 6.0 assists with a 131.7 offensive rating.
- Carey Booth (Colorado State): Booth is shooting 42.9% from three and blocking 2.0 shots per game.
- Kyle Jorgensen (Colorado State): Jorgensen scored 19 points on 8-of-15 shooting against Idaho.
- Josh Pascarelli (Colorado State): Pascarelli made 41.5% of his threes last season but is 1-for-7 from deep this season.
- Yaroslav Nikonov (Portland State): Nikonov leads the Vikings at 15.0 points with a 32.6% usage rate.
- Luke Kearney (Portland State): Kearney has made 4 of 8 threes and posts a 158.9 offensive rating.
- Trevor Frank (Portland State): Frank has hit 41.7% of his threes, including 4-of-8 against Lewis & Clark.
- Emil Skytt (Portland State): Skytt is averaging 5.0 rebounds from the backcourt in 16.5 minutes.
Numbers that matter
| Portland State offensive rebound % | 44.0% | Ranks 26th nationally and runs straight into Colorado State's 28th-ranked defensive rebounding. |
|---|---|---|
| Portland State free throw % | 61.2% | Ranks 327th, blunting the value of a team that gets to the line constantly. |
| Portland State returning minutes | 3.7% | Last season's numbers describe a roster that is essentially gone. |
| Colorado State spread | -15.0 | Unchanged since our feed first saw it; the Rams are 0-2 against the spread. |
| Total | 150.5 | Up from 147.5, in line with Portland State's quick pace. |
Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams: quick answers
What was the final score of Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
Portland St Vikings 71, Colorado St Rams 87 (final). Portland St Vikings covered the closing spread (Portland St Vikings +16.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
Colorado State is favored by 16.5 points (Colorado State -16.5).
What is the over/under for Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
The total is 150.5 points.
When is Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
Yes: Portland St Vikings opened +14.5 and is now +16.5, and the total moved from 147.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Portland St Vikings vs Colorado St Rams?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Portland St Vikings: 47% of bets, 5% of the money; Colorado St Rams: 53% of bets, 95% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Colorado St Rams -17.5: 46% of bets, 57% of the money; Portland St Vikings +17.5: 55% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 149.5: 37% of bets, 63% of the money; Under 149.5: 63% of bets, 37% of the money.