USC Trojans vs California Golden Bears prediction: USC's foul-line pressure tests a Cal defense that rarely sends teams there

Living at the line

No. 21 USC has turned the free-throw line into a weapon. Free throw rate measures free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and the Trojans' 55.5% ranks 16th of 364 teams. They are making them too, at 81.8%, 15th in the country. That is a turnaround for a team whose coach, Eric Musselman, voiced concern about its free-throw shooting in the preseason. After Sunday's close win over Wichita State, he called free-throw pressure the key factor.

Cal's defense has gone the other way. Opponents have drawn free throws at a 20.8% rate against the Bears, 15th-best nationally. The catch is the schedule behind it: a Division II opponent, Radford and Houston, three games in all. USC's guards attack the rim far harder than anyone Cal has seen outside Houston.

If this one tightens late, the line favors the visitors. Cal has shot 66.7% from the stripe, which ranks in the bottom third of Division I.

Cal's shooters can swing it

The Bears' answer is the three-pointer. Cal is hitting 44.0% from deep, 16th nationally. Michael Cooper, a Wright State transfer, has come off the bench to make 15 of 24. Nojus Indrusaitis, from Pittsburgh, scored 30 against Radford.

USC has given Cal reason to keep firing. Opponents are making 35.7% of their threes against the Trojans, which ranks 286th. USC hardly shoots threes at all, preferring the rim and the line. A night where Cal's shooting holds up is the clearest path to an upset at home.

Turnovers and the paint

Where Cal is most exposed is possessions lost and the rim. USC forces turnovers on 24.3% of opponent possessions, 47th nationally. Cal gives the ball away on 17.0% of its own trips, roughly middle of the pack (159th of 364), and it will have to handle that pressure.

Inside, the Bears block almost nothing. Their block rate, blocks per opponent two-point attempt, is 5.9%, 305th in Division I. USC's freshman twins give it the edge in the paint. Darius Ratliff is blocking 3.0 shots a game, and Adonis Ratliff is cleaning the glass on both ends.

Two rebuilt rosters, one thin bench

Neither team looks like last season's. USC's roster played 24.0% of last season's minutes, Cal's 20.5%, so last year's ratings tell you little here. Lean instead on who is actually on the floor.

For USC, that means Rodney Rice, who has played through the foot injury that clouded his summer, and Alijah Arenas, who scored a career-high 30 against Wichita State. Center Eric Reibe, a UConn transfer, was listed out with a foot injury as of Nov. 7, with estimates of his return ranging from the start of Big Ten play to the end of 2026. Freshman Christian Collins was listed as uncertain with an undisclosed injury on the same date.

Cal's question is on the bench. Mark Madsen missed the Radford win for a family emergency, with assistant Adam Mazarei coaching. Mazarei said he expected Madsen back the next day, but his return has not been confirmed.

Where the number sits

The market has moved toward USC, from 7 to 8.5, and the total sits at 161.5. Both teams play fast: USC averages 76.3 possessions per 40 minutes, and Cal isn't far behind. More possessions mean more trips to the line for USC and more threes for Cal.

USC has covered both of its games. Cal lost to Houston by 18 but still covered as a 19.5-point underdog. These two former Pac-12 rivals last met in November 2024, and Cal won at USC.