Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks prediction: Oregon's interior offense faces Mississippi Valley State's soft middle
The Ducks have scored at will near the basket, and Mississippi Valley State's opening games show little to stop that, which makes a 37.5-point spread a question of margin.
Oregon Ducks covered the closing spread (Miss Valley St Delta Devils +33.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
| Spread | Oregon -33.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 149.5 |
- Oregon should score inside early and often. The Delta Devils' poor defensive rebounding gives the Ducks extra possessions, and the main question is how deep the bench plays.
- Oregon's two-point scoring, 7th nationally, against a Mississippi Valley State defense allowing 66.0% on twos.
- Oregon is -33.5 and the total is 149.5; the line has moved from -37.5 and the total from 146.5 since our feed first saw them. Mississippi Valley State covered +40.5 at Oklahoma.
A free lane to the rim
A free lane to the rim Mississippi Valley State won't play a home game until Jan. 9. The third stop on that 16-game road swing is Eugene, where an Oregon team without Dana Altman has spent two games scoring easily. The Ducks are 33.5-point favorites. The more useful question is where their points come from.
They come from inside. Oregon has made 69.0% of its two-point shots, 7th in Division I. Its effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) is 65.9%, 6th nationally. The Ducks are also among the least three-happy teams in the country, 352nd in 3-point attempt rate, so this offense wants to get to the paint.
That suits the matchup. Mississippi Valley State's defense has allowed opponents to make 66.0% of their twos, 352nd of 364. Last season ended with the Delta Devils 365th of 365 in adjusted net efficiency, and nothing in November has moved them off that floor.
Second chances for the Ducks
The Delta Devils' biggest early problem is finishing defensive possessions. Their defensive rebound rate, the share of opponents' misses they collect, is 53.5%, 360th of 364. Even a modest offensive rebounding team will get putbacks against that.
The Ducks have cleaned their own glass well, ranking 30th in defensive rebound rate at 78.4%. Mississippi Valley State already struggles to make a first shot, so it is unlikely to get many second ones. Expect a game where Oregon controls the possession count, with Malique Ewin doing much of the work on the boards.
Riley out, Lin in
Oregon will be without Tyrone Riley IV. The San Francisco transfer scored 17 points in the opener against Montana, then injured his left hand. He missed the Eastern Washington win, and as of Nov. 10 he was set to be re-evaluated in four weeks.
Wei Lin has filled the gap. He is one of the few Ducks back from last season, on a roster that returned only 20.7% of last season's minutes. Lin scored 10 off the bench against Montana and 20 against Eastern Washington, and interim coach Tony Stubblefield has called him a spark. Fred Payne, a Boston College transfer, and Boise State transfer Andrew Meadow round out an efficient perimeter group. Stubblefield has said that sorting out rotations on a deep roster is a challenge. In a lopsided game, that depth will get minutes.
Mississippi Valley State is starting over under first-year coach Mike Davis, with 0.0% of last season's minutes back. Tymias Williams scored 19 at Oklahoma and is the steadiest piece. Forward Qingfang Pang was released from immigration custody on bail Oct. 20, and as of then his clearance to play had not been confirmed.
Where the number sits
Where the number sits The market has moved: the line has gone from Oregon -37.5 to Oregon -33.5, and the total from 146.5 to 149.5, compared with the first line our feed recorded.
Mississippi Valley State's lone priced result is the one to weigh. It lost 84-57 at Oklahoma but covered +40.5. A 77-64 loss at Washington followed. The Delta Devils play slowly, 297th in pace, which cuts the number of possessions a favorite gets to build a margin.
Oregon has been less tidy against the spread. It failed to cover -19.25 against Montana before handling Eastern Washington, and both games went over. The first half may tell the story early: the Ducks led Eastern Washington 53-39 at the break. Tip is 10 p.m. ET on B1G+, and the Delta Devils head to Oregon State on Friday.
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks line movement and odds
| Book | Devils ML | Ducks ML | Devils spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | — | — | +33.5 (-105) | o150.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | — | — | +34.5 (-120) | o149.5 (-110) |
| DraftKings | — | — | +33.5 (-108) | o150.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | — | — | +33.5 (-115) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Fanatics | +9000 | -50000 | +33.5 (-110) | o150 (-110) |
| FanDuel | — | — | +33.5 (-104) | o150.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | — | +33.5 (+100) | o149.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | — | — | +33.5 (-110) | o150.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miss Valley St Delta Devils: 97% of bets, 30% of the money; Oregon Ducks: 3% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon Ducks -34.5: 40% of bets, 25% of the money; Miss Valley St Delta Devils +34.5: 61% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 50% of bets, 59% of the money; Under 150.5: 50% of bets, 41% of the money.
Key players
- Wei Lin (Oregon): Averaging 15.0 points in 19.5 minutes while making 71.4% of his threes.
- Fred Payne (Oregon): Scoring 14.0 points a game with a 70% effective field goal percentage.
- Malique Ewin (Oregon): Averaging 12.0 points and 10.0 rebounds with a team-high 23.9% usage among starters.
- Andrew Meadow (Oregon): Shooting 64.3% from the field for 11.0 points a game.
- Tymias Williams (Mississippi Valley State): Leads the team with 8.5 rebounds a game and scored 19 at Oklahoma.
- AJ Abrams (Mississippi Valley State): Team-best 13.5 points a game on 50% shooting.
- Matt Anglo (Mississippi Valley State): Uses a team-high 27.6% of possessions while scoring 13.0 points a game.
Numbers that matter
| Oregon 2-point % | 69.0% | Ranks 7th in Division I and drives the Ducks' offense. |
|---|---|---|
| MVSU opponent 2-point % | 66.0% | Ranks 352nd of 364, an opening for Oregon's interior game. |
| MVSU defensive rebound % | 53.5% | Ranks 360th of 364, so Oregon should get second chances. |
| Oregon spread | -37.5 | Unchanged since our feed first saw the game. |
| MVSU pace | 297th | A slow tempo limits the possessions Oregon gets to stretch the margin. |
Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks: quick answers
What was the final score of Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
Miss Valley St Delta Devils 66, Oregon Ducks 100 (final). Oregon Ducks covered the closing spread (Miss Valley St Delta Devils +33.5). The game went over the closing total of 150.5.
Who is favored in Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
Oregon is favored by 33.5 points (Oregon -33.5).
What is the over/under for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
The total is 149.5 points.
When is Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
Yes: Miss Valley St Delta Devils opened +36.5 and is now +33.5, and the total moved from 148.5 to 150.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Miss Valley St Delta Devils vs Oregon Ducks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Miss Valley St Delta Devils: 97% of bets, 30% of the money; Oregon Ducks: 3% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Oregon Ducks -34.5: 40% of bets, 25% of the money; Miss Valley St Delta Devils +34.5: 61% of bets, 75% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 150.5: 50% of bets, 59% of the money; Under 150.5: 50% of bets, 41% of the money.