UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks prediction: Seattle U's stingy defense greets a UTSA roster built from scratch
The Redhawks bring back their two best forwards, while the Roadrunners return barely a tenth of last season's minutes and play without their suspended head coach.
UTSA Roadrunners covered the closing spread (UTSA Roadrunners +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 148.5.
| Spread | Seattle U -17 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 148 |
- Seattle U should own the glass and the free-throw line; UTSA's chance is turning a messy, high-turnover game into a scramble.
- UTSA's pressure against Seattle U's ball security: the Roadrunners force turnovers at a 26.9% rate, the Redhawks commit them at 22.5%.
- Seattle U is favored by 16.5, up from -13 when our feed first saw the game; UTSA is 0-2 against the spread.
A program starting over
UTSA arrives in Seattle in the middle of a reset nobody planned. Head coach Austin Claunch was suspended on Oct. 28 after a DWI arrest, and the university said it was reviewing the circumstances before deciding next steps. No later report has set a length. Assistant Nick Bowman has run the team as acting head coach since the opener.
The roster is just as new. UTSA fielded 14 new players in its opener, and sophomore Dorian Hayes is the lone returner. Only 13.1% of last season's minutes are back. That makes last season's 5-25 record, and the team numbers behind it, a weak guide to this group.
Seattle U has far more continuity. Chris Victor is in his sixth season, and the Redhawks return 45.8% of last season's minutes, including preseason All-WCC forwards Will Heimbrodt and Junseok Yeo. That core anchored a defense that finished last season 24th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents). The Redhawks also beat UTSA 71-68 in San Antonio last December, though almost none of that UTSA team remains.
Where UTSA can steal possessions
The Roadrunners' clearest edge is their hands. They force turnovers on 26.9% of opponent possessions, 26th in Division I. Seattle U has been careless so far, turning it over on 22.5% of its own trips, which ranks 333rd.
That is the matchup that could keep this closer than the number. UTSA's guard-heavy lineup leaned on two point guards together in the second half against VMI, with KJ Tenner and Josiah LeGree both making key plays. Tenner has been the steadiest piece, averaging 4.5 assists in 33 minutes a night. If UTSA turns live-ball steals into easy points, it avoids having to score against a set Seattle U defense.
The glass and the line
Everything else on the floor tilts toward Seattle U. UTSA has grabbed just 50.8% of available defensive rebounds, 362nd of 364, so missed shots have often become second chances for opponents. Halvine Dzellat, the Cincinnati transfer, is averaging 9.0 rebounds and should feast on that.
The Redhawks also live at the stripe. Their free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 44.3% ranks 81st, and UTSA's defense has sent opponents to the line at a 42.9% clip. Heimbrodt is the man to watch inside, shooting 66.7% from the field and averaging 2.0 blocks on the other end.
Threes against a team that won't
The two offenses could hardly be built more differently. UTSA takes threes on 49.2% of its shots, 50th nationally, but has made only 29.7% of them. Seattle U ranks 360th in three-point attempt rate, yet the few it takes are falling at 37.9%.
For a big underdog, volume shooting is the variance play. Preston Turner is the swing shooter: he hit 44.8% from deep at Eastern Illinois last season and hit the game-clinching shot against VMI, but he is 6 of 18 from three so far.
What the line says
The market has moved hard toward Seattle U. The spread opened at -13 in our feed and now sits at -16.5 across 10 books, with the total dipping from 150 to 148.5. Seattle U is 2-0 against the spread, including a one-point loss at Hawai'i after rallying from a 16-point first-half deficit. UTSA has failed to cover both of its games, including a 74-95 loss at San José State.
Tipoff is tonight at 10 p.m. ET at the Redhawk Center on ESPN+.
- Turnovers: UTSA's best route to a cover runs through steals.
- Second chances: watch whether UTSA can finish defensive possessions with a rebound.
- Turner's volume: a hot night from deep is the swing factor for the underdog.
UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks line movement and odds
| Book | Roadrunners ML | Redhawks ML | Roadrunners spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +1000 | -2000 | +16.5 (-102) | o148.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | +1000 | -2500 | +17.5 (-117) | o147.5 (-115) |
| DraftKings | +1100 | -2100 | +16.5 (-102) | o148.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | +1200 | -3000 | +17.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Fanatics | +1200 | -2200 | +17 (-110) | o148.5 (-105) |
| FanDuel | +1200 | -2800 | +16.5 (-102) | o148.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1000 | -2500 | +17.5 (-115) | o147.5 (-115) |
| Caesars | +1150 | -2400 | +17 (-110) | o148.5 (-110) |
Where the money is on UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks
On the Kalshi moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners: 74% of bets, 30% of the money; Seattle Redhawks: 26% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Redhawks -15.5: 40% of bets, 57% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +15.5: 60% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 34% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 148.5: 66% of bets, 27% of the money.
Key players
- Will Heimbrodt (Seattle U): He is averaging 19.0 points on 66.7% shooting with 2.0 blocks per game.
- Mason Williams (Seattle U): He matches Heimbrodt at 19.0 points per game and is hitting 38.5% from three.
- Halvine Dzellat (Seattle U): He is pulling down 9.0 rebounds per game against a UTSA team that struggles on the defensive glass.
- Tyler Boston (Seattle U): He averaged 14.2 points at Holy Cross last season and is adding 3.5 assists per game now.
- KJ Tenner (UTSA): He leads UTSA with 4.5 assists per game and a 130.3 offensive rating.
- Preston Turner (UTSA): He shot 44.8% from three last season but is 6 of 18 from deep so far.
- Josiah LeGree (UTSA): He carries a team-high 32.4% usage rate and scored 14 points against VMI.
- Shey Eberwein (UTSA): He is averaging 11.0 points off the bench with a 134.1 offensive rating.
Numbers that matter
| UTSA forced turnover rate | 26.9% | Ranks 26th in Division I and is the Roadrunners' clearest path to keeping this close. |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle U turnover rate | 22.5% | Ranks 333rd, a weakness UTSA's pressure is built to exploit. |
| UTSA defensive rebound % | 50.8% | Ranks 362nd of 364, so Seattle U should get plenty of second chances. |
| UTSA returning minutes | 13.1% | Makes last season's 5-25 team a poor guide to this roster. |
| Current spread | -16.5 | Moved toward Seattle U from -13 when our feed first saw the game. |
UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks: quick answers
What was the final score of UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
UTSA Roadrunners 86, Seattle Redhawks 59 (final). UTSA Roadrunners covered the closing spread (UTSA Roadrunners +16.5). The game went under the closing total of 148.5.
Who is favored in UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
Seattle U is favored by 17 points (Seattle U -17).
What is the over/under for UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
The total is 148 points.
When is UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
Yes: UTSA Roadrunners opened +13.5 and is now +16.5, and the total moved from 150.5 to 148.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on UTSA Roadrunners vs Seattle Redhawks?
On the Kalshi moneyline: UTSA Roadrunners: 74% of bets, 30% of the money; Seattle Redhawks: 26% of bets, 70% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Seattle Redhawks -15.5: 40% of bets, 57% of the money; UTSA Roadrunners +15.5: 60% of bets, 43% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 148.5: 34% of bets, 73% of the money; Under 148.5: 66% of bets, 27% of the money.