Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers prediction: Pacific's glass crashers test Long Beach State's soft rebounding
The Beach open their home schedule against a rebuilt Pacific team that hunts second shots, while Long Beach State's best answer is getting to the free-throw line.
Long Beach St 49ers covered the closing spread (Pacific Tigers -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 137.5.
| Spread | Pacific -5.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 138 |
- Expect a slow, physical game: Pacific's rebounding builds a cushion unless its own turnovers hand Long Beach State easy chances.
- Watch Gavin Ripp and Pacific's offensive rebounders against a Long Beach State defense that ranks 270th in defensive rebound rate.
- Pacific is favored by 6, down from 6.5 when our feed first saw it. Long Beach State's pace ranks 329th, which fits a 137.5 total.
Second chances decide it
Pacific's clearest edge is on the offensive glass. The Tigers have rebounded 45.8% of their own misses (offensive rebound rate), 14th in Division I. Long Beach State has secured only 66.1% of opponents' misses, which ranks 270th. Gavin Ripp, a transfer from San Diego, is averaging 10.0 rebounds a game.
The Beach can't answer in kind. Their own offensive rebound rate of 13.4% ranks 362nd, so most of their trips end with one shot. Noah Amenhauser, an Oregon State transfer listed at 7-2, is the tallest player ever to suit up for the program and the kind of size that could contest those boards.
Two games is a thin base, and one of Pacific's came in a record-setting 102-47 rout of Bethesda. The trip to Bradley says more: Pacific won 63-52 as a short road underdog against a team ranked 121st in adjusted net efficiency.
Giveaways are Pacific's weak spot
The Tigers have been loose with the ball. Their turnover rate of 20.7% (turnovers per 100 possessions) ranks 291st, and last season's team finished 340th in the same stat. That is the one habit that has carried over from a roster that has almost entirely changed.
Long Beach State is built to punish it. The Beach rank 99th in steal rate at 13.0%, and Jack Payne and McCaden Adams each average two steals a game. A defense that has struggled to stop anyone in the half court needs those live-ball turnovers to create easy offense.
The free-throw line tug of war
Long Beach State's most reliable source of points has been the foul line. Its free throw rate (free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt) of 49.5% ranks 41st. Pacific has allowed just 16.9%, third in the country, so something in this matchup will bend.
If the game stays close late, Pacific's own shooting at the line is a worry. The Tigers are making 67.5% of their free throws, 231st nationally.
Two rosters starting over
Last season's numbers are a weak guide here. Pacific returns 8.6% of last season's minutes, and Long Beach State returns 5.0%. Both coaches, Dave Smart at Pacific and Chris Acker at Long Beach State, are in their third seasons and rebuilt through transfers.
Pacific's backcourt runs through Adriel Nyorha and Jaden Winston, a Manhattan transfer who scored a season-high 20 at Bradley. Long Beach State leans hard on Adams, whose usage rate of 33.7% means he finishes a third of the Beach's possessions when he's on the floor. Forward Henry Lau played in the Oct. 28 exhibition at San Diego State while listed with an undisclosed issue, and there has been no update since Oct. 29.
The Beach have shown they can hang. They led Utah 40-28 at halftime on Nov. 2 before fading late. This is their first game at the Walter Pyramid after two road losses.
What the number says
Pacific is a 6-point favorite after our feed first recorded the line at 6.5, a small move toward Long Beach State. The total sits at 137.5, down a hair from 138.
The low total matches two deliberate teams. Long Beach State's pace ranks 329th and Pacific's ranks 279th, so expect fewer possessions than usual. Pacific went under at Bradley, and last season's meeting, a 69-66 Pacific win, was the kind of grind this one projects to be.
Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers line movement and odds
| Book | Tigers ML | 49ers ML | Tigers spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -235 | +195 | -5.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-115) |
| BetRivers | -245 | +190 | -5.5 (-107) | o137.5 (-114) |
| DraftKings | -258 | +210 | -5.5 (-112) | o138.5 (-108) |
| ESPN BET | -250 | +210 | -5.5 (-115) | o138.5 (-105) |
| Fanatics | -245 | +200 | -5.5 (-115) | o138 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -225 | +184 | -5.5 (-110) | o137.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -240 | +190 | -5.5 (-105) | o137.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -240 | +196 | -5.5 (-110) | o138 (-110) |
Where the money is on Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pacific Tigers: 64% of bets, 12% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers: 37% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pacific Tigers -6.5: 45% of bets, 6% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers +6.5: 55% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 138.5: 73% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 138.5: 27% of bets, 7% of the money.
Key players
- Adriel Nyorha (Pacific): Leads Pacific at 16.0 points per game and is shooting 45.5% from three.
- Jaden Winston (Pacific): Scored 20 at Bradley and averaged 15.3 points at Manhattan last season.
- Gavin Ripp (Pacific): Averaging 10.0 rebounds and has made 80% of his shots, all inside the arc.
- Jaion Pitt (Pacific): Scoring 14.0 points per game but making just 42.9% of his free throws.
- McCaden Adams (Long Beach State): Leads the Beach at 17.5 points per game with a 33.7% usage rate.
- Yohann Sissoko (Long Beach State): Averaging 14.5 points on a 68.8% effective field goal percentage.
- Jack Payne (Long Beach State): Led the Beach with 17 points at Montana State and averages 2.0 steals.
- Jaden Tengan (Long Beach State): Averaging 11.0 points off the bench and making 88.9% at the line.
Numbers that matter
| Pacific offensive rebound rate | 45.8% | Ranks 14th nationally and attacks a Long Beach State defense that is 270th in defensive rebound rate. |
|---|---|---|
| Long Beach State free throw rate | 49.5% | Ranks 41st, but Pacific's opponents have managed just 16.9%, third in the country. |
| Pacific turnover rate | 20.7% | Ranks 291st, an opening for a Beach defense that is 99th in steal rate. |
| Long Beach State spread | +6 | Moved from 6.5 when our feed first recorded the game. |
| Total | 137.5 | Two slow teams; Long Beach State's pace ranks 329th and Pacific's 279th. |
Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers: quick answers
What was the final score of Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
Pacific Tigers 59, Long Beach St 49ers 62 (final). Long Beach St 49ers covered the closing spread (Pacific Tigers -5.5). The game went under the closing total of 137.5.
Who is favored in Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
Pacific is favored by 5.5 points (Pacific -5.5).
What is the over/under for Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
The total is 138 points.
When is Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 10:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
Yes: Pacific Tigers opened -6.5 and is now -5.5, and the total is still 137.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Pacific Tigers vs Long Beach St 49ers?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Pacific Tigers: 64% of bets, 12% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers: 37% of bets, 88% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Pacific Tigers -6.5: 45% of bets, 6% of the money; Long Beach St 49ers +6.5: 55% of bets, 94% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 138.5: 73% of bets, 93% of the money; Under 138.5: 27% of bets, 7% of the money.