Lindenwood Lions vs Nebraska Cornhuskers prediction: Lindenwood's gaudy early numbers run into No. 25 Nebraska

Separating the stats from the schedule

Lindenwood arrives in Lincoln tonight (9 p.m. ET, FS1) carrying numbers that look like a contender's. The Lions rank 27th in offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) and score 54.3 first-half points a game, fifth in the country. They hold opponents to 30.1% on two-pointers, second nationally.

Those numbers come mostly from two home blowouts, 120-46 over Central Bible and 115-44 over East-West University, and neither opponent carries a Division I rating. The one real test came Nov. 2 at TCU, a team rated 49th in adjusted net efficiency, and it went badly: a 59-98 loss after trailing 37-57 at halftime.

This is also a roster with no history together. Coach Kyle Gerdeman lost every player from last season's team, so Lindenwood returns 0.0% of last season's minutes. The 2025-26 Lions' numbers, including a defense ranked 20th in efficiency, describe a different group. The closest guide is the TCU game, and Nebraska is a step up from that.

Where Nebraska takes possessions away

Nebraska's defense was eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency last season, which adjusts points allowed per 100 possessions for opponents. This version has started by attacking the ball. The Huskers force turnovers on 25.4% of opponent possessions (39th) and rank 21st in steal rate. Lindenwood gives the ball away on 16.9% of its own trips, a middling 154th, and that figure came mostly against overmatched competition.

The free-throw line widens the gap. Nebraska draws 45.6 free-throw attempts per 100 field-goal tries (70th) and makes 76.9% of them. Lindenwood shoots 52.5% at the line, 357th of 364. Even if the Lions keep the game respectable from the floor, they give points back at the stripe.

One style note cuts the other way. Opponents have taken 56.8% of their shots from three against Nebraska, sixth-most nationally, but Lindenwood rarely shoots them, ranking 339th in 3-point attempt rate. The Lions will need to break that habit to keep pace.

Sandfort and a reshaped Husker core

Nebraska also turned over its roster after a program-record 28-win season and a Sweet 16 run, bringing in eight newcomers to replace four starters. The constant is Pryce Sandfort. He is scoring 22.5 points a game and went 9 of 14 for 25 in the 67-58 win over Providence. He made 41.6% of his threes last season, so his 4-of-14 start from deep looks like a slump that won't last.

Cale Jacobsen has made 81.8% of his shots after a career night against Le Moyne. Boden Kapke, the Boston College transfer, went 5 of 6 for 13 against Providence. Braden Frager, last season's Big Ten Sixth Man of the Year, is the one starter who has struggled: he was 3 of 13 against the Friars and is shooting 15.4% from three.

Sam Orme remains the open question. The Belmont transfer missed the opener with a hamstring injury, and as of Nov. 6 Hoiberg said Orme was still dealing with it but would join the rotation once healthy. Nebraska hasn't said whether he plays tonight.

Lindenwood spreads the ball around. Makhan Diouf leads the team at 15.5 points a game. Malek Archie fills the box score at 12.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists, and Shamiere Green carries the heaviest load with a 26.8% usage rate.

Reading a 34.5-point spread

The market hasn't moved: Nebraska opened at -34.5 in our feed and sits there now, with the total dipping from 151.0 to 150.5. The Huskers are 2-0 against the spread, including a 106-64 rout of Le Moyne as 35-point favorites. The only previous meeting was an 84-52 Nebraska win in Lincoln in 2023.

Tempo shapes the total. Lindenwood plays at 75.2 possessions per 40 minutes (64th), while Nebraska sits at 69.3 (235th), and the home team usually sets the tempo in a mismatch like this. The Providence game stayed under its 158.0 total.

A spread this large often comes down to Nebraska's bench in the final 10 minutes. Freshman Jacob Lanier scored 11 off the bench in the opener, and a deep rotation that keeps attacking would protect the margin.