Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats prediction: Stephen F. Austin's rebuilt shooters get their first real test in Abilene
The Lumberjacks have shot freely against two non-Division I visitors, and an Abilene Christian defense that has struggled to guard the arc is the first honest read on a team that returns almost nothing.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 76, Abilene Christian Wildcats 71 (final). Abilene Christian Wildcats covered the closing spread (Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 142.5.
| Spread | Stephen F. Austin -6.5 |
|---|---|
| Total (over/under) | 142 |
- SFA's shooting and ball security should control this one, but a home crowd and a series of tight finishes argue against a runaway.
- Narit Chotikavanic and Erik Makke firing from deep against an ACU defense allowing 43.2% from three, 353rd nationally.
- SFA is favored by 6.5 with the total at 143.5; the spread has moved from 4.5 and the total from 142.5 since our feed first saw them, and ACU is 0-2 to the over.
Two new teams, one old rivalry
Stephen F. Austin won the Southland regular season last year, went 28-6 and took Tulsa to overtime in the NCAA first round. Almost none of that team remains. Players on this roster logged just 24.3% of last season's minutes, and the departures include leading scorer Keon Thompson and Lateef Patrick, now at Fordham.
The new group has looked dominant, beating Lyon 120-61 and Texas Lutheran 89-32. Neither is a Division I program, so the Lumberjacks' gaudy efficiency numbers say more about the opponents than the team. Wednesday is the first time Matt Braeuer's rebuilt roster faces a Division I team, and it does so on the road.
Abilene Christian has turned over just as hard, returning 22.2% of last season's minutes, and was picked seventh of nine in the UAC. There is history on the bench: Brette Tanner spent 2006-13 as an SFA assistant before joining ACU's staff. SFA forwards Booker (concussion) and Jovic (ankle) were listed questionable as of Nov. 7, and the program hasn't said more. ACU had no injuries reported as of Oct. 30.
The arc decides it
SFA's identity so far is volume from three. The Lumberjacks take 52.6% of their shots from deep, 26th in the country, and have made 45.0% of them. The steadiest piece is Chotikavanic, the top returner, who made 87 threes at 39.4% last season and has opened 8 of 12. Makke has gone 7 of 14.
That is a poor matchup for ACU. The Wildcats allow opponents to hit 43.2% from three (353rd) and an effective field goal percentage (threes count 1.5 times) of 62.5%, 355th. Much of that damage came in a 94-59 loss at Colorado, but Lamar still put up 81 in Moody Coliseum. If ACU can't run SFA off the line, the Lumberjacks' transfer scorer MJ Russell, who averaged 15.3 points at UL Monroe last season, won't need to carry much of the load.
The press that left town
Last season's ACU teams lived on chaos, ranking third in forced turnover rate and fifth in steal rate. That roster is gone, and so far the pressure has gone with it: ACU forces turnovers on 17.8% of possessions, 227th. The Wildcats' own ball security is worse, with a turnover rate of 21.0 per 100 possessions, 296th.
SFA looks built to exploit that. Last season's Lumberjacks ranked 20th in turnover rate, and reserve guard Ashton Simmons is handing out 6.0 assists in 17.5 minutes. Extra possessions for a team shooting this many threes add up quickly.
Free throws in a tight series
This rivalry tends to come down to the final minutes. Recent meetings ended 62-57, 60-57 and 63-62 before SFA's 76-66 home win last November, and the Lumberjacks have taken four of the last five.
If it is close late, ACU's free throw shooting is a problem. The Wildcats are making 61.5% at the line, 320th, and Willan Marie-Anais, their leading rebounder at 8.0 per game, is shooting 27.3%. SFA isn't much better: last season's team made 68.0%, 327th nationally.
What the number says
Nine books hang SFA at -6.5, with ACU at +205 on the moneyline, and the total sits at 143.5. Both numbers have moved since our feed first saw the game: the spread from SFA -4.5 to -6.5, and the total from 142.5 to 143.5.
The total is the more interesting call. SFA's early pace of 75.5 possessions per 40 minutes is inflated by blowouts; last season's team played at 66.3, 250th. ACU has gone under in both games against closing totals of 154.25 and 165.5, and the series history leans low-scoring.
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats line movement and odds
| Book | Lumberjacks ML | Wildcats ML | Lumberjacks spread | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 | -6.5 (-105) | o142.5 (-110) |
| BetRivers | -315 | +240 | -6.5 (-114) | o142.5 (-109) |
| DraftKings | -258 | +210 | -6.5 (-105) | o142.5 (-110) |
| ESPN BET | -260 | +215 | -6.5 (-105) | o141.5 (-120) |
| Fanatics | -260 | +210 | -6.5 (-105) | o142 (-110) |
| FanDuel | -280 | +225 | -6.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-110) |
| Hard Rock Bet | -250 | +210 | -6.5 (-110) | o142.5 (-110) |
| Caesars | -267 | +215 | -6 (-110) | o142 (-110) |
Where the money is on Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: 76% of bets, 95% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats: 24% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -7.5: 73% of bets, 83% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats +7.5: 27% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 68% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 141.5: 32% of bets, 12% of the money.
Key players
- Narit Chotikavanic (Stephen F. Austin): He is 8 of 12 from three after making 87 threes at 39.4% last season.
- Erik Makke (Stephen F. Austin): He is averaging 12.5 points while making 7 of 14 threes.
- MJ Russell (Stephen F. Austin): He leads SFA with a 26.8% usage rate after averaging 15.3 points at UL Monroe last season.
- Ashton Simmons (Stephen F. Austin): He is averaging 6.0 assists in 17.5 minutes off the bench.
- Isaac Dye (Abilene Christian): He scored a team-high 18 against Lamar on 4-of-5 shooting from three.
- Evan Boisdur (Abilene Christian): He is averaging 14.0 points and 4.5 assists while making 5 of 9 threes.
- Timeo Pons (Abilene Christian): He carries a team-high 29.9% usage rate and averages 14.0 points.
- Willan Marie-Anais (Abilene Christian): He averages 8.0 rebounds but is shooting 27.3% at the free throw line.
Numbers that matter
| ACU opponent 3-point % | 43.2% | Ranks 353rd and faces an SFA team that takes more than half its shots from deep. |
|---|---|---|
| SFA 3-point attempt rate | 52.6% | 26th nationally, built against two non-Division I opponents. |
| SFA returning minutes | 24.3% | Last season's 28-6 numbers say little about this roster. |
| ACU turnover rate | 21.0 | Ranks 296th, and last season's high-pressure defense has not carried over. |
| SFA spread | -4.5 | Unchanged since our feed first saw the game, in a series of tight finishes. |
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats: quick answers
What was the final score of Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks 76, Abilene Christian Wildcats 71 (final). Abilene Christian Wildcats covered the closing spread (Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -6.5). The game went over the closing total of 142.5.
Who is favored in Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Stephen F. Austin is favored by 6.5 points (Stephen F. Austin -6.5).
What is the over/under for Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
The total is 142 points.
When is Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET.
Has the line moved for Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
Yes: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks opened -4.5 and is now -6.5, and the total moved from 143.5 to 142.5 (consensus of the regulated US sportsbooks since we first saw the game).
Where is the money on Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs Abilene Christian Wildcats?
On the Kalshi moneyline: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks: 76% of bets, 95% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats: 24% of bets, 5% of the money. On the Kalshi spread: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks -7.5: 73% of bets, 83% of the money; Abilene Christian Wildcats +7.5: 27% of bets, 17% of the money. On the Kalshi total: Over 141.5: 68% of bets, 88% of the money; Under 141.5: 32% of bets, 12% of the money.